저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
9월 CPI 0.6% 상승(연 3.7%), PPI 1.3% 급등, 수입·수출물가 급등으로 인플레 재가속 우려. 시장은 이를 연준 긴축 신호로 해석해 금·은을 매도했으나, 발언자는 연준이 말만 강하고 행동은 비둘기파적이며 이미 인플레를 통제하지 못하고 있다고 주장. 유가 상승·달러 강세·채권/모기지 손실 위기 가능성을 제기하고, 금·은은 단기 변동성이 크다고 강조.
다듬은 글
What if I told you that three terrible inflation reports were released in a single week, and yet the price of gold still fell? It has n't increased. Fallen. And silver has declined even more sharply. That sounds wrong, and it is. But the reason for this could change how you view your money. Stay tuned, because at the end of this video you will see why some analysts believe that the market has just made a very big mistake.
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Okay, let's get started. It was a wild week for the economy. Inflation news came out on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, and every single one was hotter than expected. Hotter simply means that prices are rising faster than experts predicted. One would think that such news would drive gold prices up, because people buy gold as protection against rising prices.
But that's exactly what did n't happen. The traders sold gold and silver instead. Why would someone sell gold when inflation is rising? Because many traders read the news in a very specific way. They believe that poor inflation figures are forcing the US Federal Reserve to take tougher action. In their opinion, the Fed will raise interest rates even further and may even shrink its balance sheet.
Higher interest rates make gold less attractive because gold does not pay interest. So they sell. Now the story gets interesting. A growing group of analysts says this interpretation is wrong. They argue that hotter inflation does not necessarily mean the Fed is winning the fight . It means the Fed is already losing him.
In their view, it hardly matters if the Fed raises rates two or three more times, because prices rise much faster than interest rates. Imagine it like a race . If one runner is running at 10 miles per hour and the other at only three, a short burst of speed wo n't close the gap. Let's talk about the man at the center of this story, Fed Chair Kevin Wash.
He has been in office for about five months and many see him as a tough inflation fighter, even a modern version of the legendary Paul Volcker. But look at what he actually did. In five months, he raised interest rates exactly once, and by only 25 basis points. And the market isn't expecting the next increase until December.
Critics say that's hardly the record of a fighter. Things get even stranger when you look at the Fed's balance sheet . It is bigger today than on the day he took office. The money supply M2 has grown by almost 6% per year during these five months. Critics say these are not the actions of a falcon, but those of a dove.
Their motto is: Don't listen to what he says, but pay attention to what he does. And that brings us to the prices. Gold fell by about half a percent over the week, closing at around $4145 per ounce. Silver fared worse. It fell by about 3% to around $56.85 and touched the $55 range during the week. For long-term buyers, such a pullback feels like a special offer.
The logic behind it: If the masses misinterpret the news, patient people can collect metal more cheaply . But keep in mind that prices can fall further after a pullback . So nobody should see that as a guarantee. Let's now go through the numbers one by one, because they are the heart of this story. Let's start with the consumer price index for September.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose by 0.6% in just one month. Over the past year, inflation reached 3.7%. Rising petrol prices played a major role in the monthly jump. This is important because persistent inflation reduces the purchasing power of your salary and makes the Fed's job significantly more difficult.
Here's a trick that most reports leave out. Economists often extrapolate GDP growth figures to an annual basis. If the economy grows by half a percent in a quarter, they say it's growing by 2 percent. They multiply by 4. They almost never do that with monthly inflation . If you were to do that, these 0.6 percent per month would amount to approximately 7.4 percent per year.
The argument is that headlines prefer the smaller number because 6/10 of a percent sounds harmless. However, if this pace were to continue for 12 months, it would by no means feel harmless. To be fair, a single month does not establish a trend, and monthly figures fluctuate greatly. That's exactly why everyone is looking so closely.
Next comes the political dispute over who is to blame. Supporters of President Trump point out that inflation peaked at 9.1 percent under President Biden and is currently at 3 to 4 percent . They say that proves the problem is behind us. The critics respond with the calendar. Consumer prices have risen by about 4 percent in the first nine months of 2026, and there are still three months to go.
Some analysts expect a rate close to 5 percent for the entire year . Compare that to the recent past. In all 12 months of 2024, Biden's last year, it was 2.9 percent. In 2023 it was 3.4 percent. This year's figure is already higher than both. Although it is still below the 6.5 percent of 2022 and the 7 percent of 2021, the concern is that the trend is heading in the wrong direction.
Now comes the part that surprises people. Critics say that the peak in 2021 was partly predetermined by the huge spending and cheap money of 2020, under Trump. In their narrative, Biden inherited a problem that began before him. And they add that Biden's own policies also fueled inflation. That's why you argue that way.
Never tell the whole story if you're only blaming one president. Naturally, supporters on both sides see things differently, and economists argue about how effective each measure really was. Now let's look ahead. Some analysts fear that the next few years could bring even greater price pressure . They point to the large spending package, huge budget deficits, and a possible postponement in Congress after the midterm elections.
If the members of parliament continue to spend large sums of money, you say, the deficits could become even larger. And they believe that the next presidential race will again revolve around the cost of living. Each side blames the other. No one knows whether this prediction will come true. No one can say how the voters will decide.
So consider this a possible scenario, not a fact. Let's take a short break and I'd like to ask you something. If prices continue to rise as these reports suggest, what would you cut from your budget first? Food, fuel, or something else? Write it in the comments. Because I love reading your answers, and the best ones might appear in a later video.
Okay, let's go back, because the report from Thursday was the real shock. It was the producer price index, the PPI. And many analysts say it is even more important than the consumer report. Why? Because producer prices measure what companies pay and receive. This is the first link in the chain. Companies' costs rise, then they raise their prices, and in the end you pay for it in the store.
Anyone wanting to take a look at tomorrow's consumer inflation should look at today's producer prices. Experts had expected producer prices to rise by about 0.5% this month . Instead, they jumped by 1.3%. That's almost three times the forecast. And if you extrapolate this one month to a year, you end up with approximately %.
Producer prices rose by 6.3% over the past 12 months. While the forecast was 5.6, energy was the main driver. Energy prices for final demand surged by 10.8% in one month. The core rate, excluding food and energy, should increase by 0.3%. It rose by 0.7. Extrapolated to a year, that's approximately 9%.
A word of warning. Higher wholesale prices do not translate directly into higher consumer prices. Some companies absorb part of the costs, others pass them on. However, if the pressure persists, it can negatively impact company profits and household budgets. It can also change what people expect from future prices .
This expectation alone can keep inflation going. Then came the market reaction, and that is perhaps the strangest part of the whole week. According to these reports, Fed Chief Walsh gave a speech. And he did n't sound alarmed. He gave no indication that the Fed needed to toughen up . Immediately afterwards, the probability of an interest rate hike in October fell from about 40 or 45% to around 15%.
The data became hotter, and the market expected less trading. Critics say this reveals everything about where the Fed stands in its thinking. Even the financial media seemed to soften the message. One broadcaster said the figures showed that inflation was not falling as quickly as the Fed had hoped.
Critics say, however, that this misses the point. Inflation is not falling slowly. According to these figures, it is rising. The Fed expected a downward trend, but instead the line points in the opposite direction. Now we come to the part that many analysts describe as the scariest of the week. The import and export price reports were published on Friday.
They are closely watched because they capture actual prices and not heavily adjusted estimates. Import prices rose by 1.1% in a single month, which extrapolates to approximately 14 %. Import prices have risen by 8.1% over the year. Since so much of what Americans buy comes from abroad, this number affects every consumer.
Export prices were even wilder. A 0.9% increase was expected. Instead, they jumped by 2.2% in one month. That's already more than the Fed's entire annual target of 2 %. Delivered in just 30 days. Export prices have risen by 11.6% over the past year. And if you extrapolate the monthly jump, you reach about 30 %.
These are enormous numbers. Now you might be wondering why we should care about export prices if we're not the ones paying them. The answer. The goods that America sells abroad are often the same ones that Americans use at home. Rising export prices therefore indicate rising domestic costs. Of course, nobody expects every month to be this hot.
Monthly data fluctuates significantly. But watch out for the oil, because it could make everything worse. US crude oil is back above $101 per barrel and Brent oil above $110. And here's a twist. Some analysts believe that oil prices are not even higher only because the government is releasing oil from the strategic oil reserve.
This reserve cannot be depleted indefinitely. If the release of oil licenses slows down after the midterm elections, oil prices could rise significantly. That would drive up transport costs, production costs and household bills all at once . Now for the twist within the twist, and this is the real climax of the story.
All of this happened while the US dollar remained strong. The dollar index is at around 102 because currency traders also believe that high inflation means further interest rate hikes by the Fed. But here's the big question: what if the Fed can't raise the rate any further? Some analysts warn that she might not be able to finish what she started.
Even if interest rates reach 4.3 1/4 or 5%, that's little compared to inflation of 7.8 or 9%. In her words, these interest rates would hardly make a difference . The real danger may lie in the bond and mortgage markets. The 30-year fixed interest rate for mortgages is now around 7.5%. If interest rates rise so quickly, existing bonds and mortgage loans will lose value, at least on paper.
Banking and lenders who hold them could suffer heavy losses . Some analysts fear that this strain could turn into a serious crisis and that the Fed would be forced to cut interest rates or restart massive money printing, known as quantitative easing, to calm the system. Should that ever happen, the dollar could lose strength and gold and silver could look very different than they do today.
That's a big if, and it's important to say that. Nobody can promise that it will happen that way. Gold and silver can rise in some situations and fall in others. Silver is particularly volatile because it also depends on factories and industrial demand. Interest rates, currency movements, investor sentiment and global demand can all move prices.
Therefore, no metal is a guaranteed protective shield. And anyone who tells you otherwise is trying to sell you something. So what is the lesson? This week's lesson. First, headlines can be misleading. A report that is bad for the economy can still look bad for gold in the short term because traders react to what they expect from the Fed.
Secondly, the gap between what those in charge say and what they do is perhaps the most important figure that no one talks about. And thirdly, whatever you expect for the future , never decide based on a single price or a single report. Check the evidence, question confident predictions. Also, the advice in this video, and never invest more money than you can afford to lose.
This video is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Now I want your honest opinion. Do you believe the Fed is truly losing the fight against inflation, or is this just a bumpy phase before things calm down? Write your answer in the comments and tell me what I should cover next.
If this video has helped you see the story differently, give it a like, share it with someone who cares about prices, and subscribe to Silver News so you do n't miss the next big step. Thanks for watching and see you in the next video.
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