저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인 하락은 나쁜 소식(bear stories)에 따른 과도한 공포이며 ARK는 저점 부근에서 암호화폐 노출 주식을 매수 중. 비트코인은 금과 상관관계가 0.14로 낮아 분산투자 자산이며 기관 수요도 진지함. 양자컴퓨팅 위협은 10년 이상 먼 얘기로 봄. 유동성 지표는 셧다운 우려로 하락 후 회복됐으나 다시 위축 중이며 연준 정책 변화 가능성 언급. 금속/금 비율과 국채금리 간 전통적 상관관계 붕괴, 엔캐리 트레이드 청산 영향 주장.
다듬은 글
How many bear stories I've heard about Bitcoin in in the last few weeks, last few months. And just go on to X and you'll find all kinds of reasons why you must sell Bitcoin. And these are the the periods that are kind of interesting. We post our trading at the end of every day and you'll say you'll see that we had been nibbling at our crypto exposed stocks.
We didn't know how far this was going to go and maybe it's not over, not promising that, but um there was so much negative sentiment that I I felt okay. You know, we need to leg in and lean into this. If our research is correct that this um The prevailing narrative in traditional markets is that innovation-driven investing is highly speculative with disruptive technologies often dismissed as too volatile or unpredictable for long-term portfolios.
But Cathie Wood challenges this assumption through a data-driven approach rooted in thematic investing and long-term exponential growth trends. As the founder of ARK Invest, Wood argues that markets consistently underestimate the pace of technological convergence across artificial intelligence, genomics, robotics, and blockchain.
Her core thesis is that innovation is not linear but exponential and that most investors misprice its long-term impact because they focus too heavily on short-term volatility. By analyzing adoption curves and historical disruption cycles, Wood suggests that today's emerging technologies could reshape entire industries faster than conventional financial models anticipate.
Look at what the gold price has done in the last few years and look at what's happened to Bitcoin. Now, this is a log chart, so um you can see gold has had a massive move to the upside. This chart ends in at the end of 25 and of course I think last night we got down to roughly $60,000 in Bitcoin. So really cut in half since its peak in October.
What is going on here? Isn't Bitcoin supposed to be digital gold? If it's digital gold why isn't it behaving like gold? And a couple of points to make here. If you do the correlation between Bitcoin and gold their returns since 2019 and and I put this in my New Year's letter. You can see the matrix there if you'd like.
um The correlation has been 0.14. One is perfect correlation. And here we are at 0.14, very low, almost no correlation. So that is very important to understand. What you can also see here though is gold tends to precede a big move in bit in Bitcoin. You can see the circles there and we'd have a gigantic circle around what has happened recently.
um And and so maybe that will happen again. We actually think it will. I cannot tell you how many bear stories I've heard about Bitcoin in in the last few weeks, last few months. And just go on to X and you'll find all kinds of reasons why you must sell Bitcoin. And these are the the periods that are kind of interesting.
We post our trading at the end of every day and you'll say you'll see that we had been nibbling at our crypto exposed stocks. We didn't know how far this was going to go and maybe it's not over, not promising that, but um there was so much negative sentiment that I I felt okay. You know, we need to leg in and lean into this.
If our research is correct that this um this Bitcoin is three revolutions in one. It's a global digital private, very important, rules-based, even more important, monetary system. And that's a very big idea. um The second revolution is it is a technology. It's a new technology. It's it's really adding another layer I would say to the internet so that we have um native currencies native to the internet that will be able to handle agentic commerce.
And other other such agentic movements taking place out there. That's a very big idea. And then and it won't be of course just Bitcoin. It'll be ether, importantly ether. Solana maybe hyperliquid. We shall see. But what's interesting about this period is the big three have been identified. And those are Bitcoin, ether, and Solana.
You know, the worry historically has been how many of these things are there going to be? Is this going to be a very fragmented situation? And we're learning we're learning who the big winners are are going to be, who the big winners are. And I think that's a very important. And then the third revolution is this is a new asset class.
Bitcoin is leading the way. It is the most secure of all the crypto currencies out there backed by the largest computer network in the world. And so really an anchor to an asset allocator looking to move into this new world. And why wouldn't an asset allocator do that? Well, if we're right and well, the it's a fact that at least over the last five years the correlations have been the correlation has been as low as 0.14.
The key to successful diversification for asset allocators is um adding new assets with very low correlation to all of the other assets in the ecosystem. And this one qualifies. Why do they want that? It is because with that low correlation introducing it risk-adjusted returns go up over time. And so I do think institutions are serious about this new asset class.
They may have been reticent to move in because they were hearing about the four-year cycle, the four-year cycle. And lo and behold and I'll I'll hats off to Chris Berniske who has been very right in in calling for whether it's the four-year cycle or whatever, just this down draft. um And so it's close to it's closing in on the low point that many technical analysts are suggesting um as the place where it should stop.
These these are very volatile moments at at at or near the bottom. But we usually do look back and say, "Wow, I wish I had caught that low, this V-shaped recovery." um has been quite significant. Not promising. I want to make I want to make sure that there are no promises here, but it does seem like the stars are aligning.
Cathie Wood's message is ultimately one of cautious optimism backed by long-term conviction. According to Cathie Wood, Bitcoin's sharp declines should not be viewed as a failure of the asset but rather as the natural growing pains of a new and emerging financial system. In her view, early-stage technologies and monetary innovations often go through extreme volatility before their real value becomes clear to the broader market.
She also highlights that Bitcoin's low correlation with traditional assets like gold, stocks, and bonds makes it a unique tool for diversification in modern portfolios. Instead of moving in line with existing markets, Bitcoin often reacts to its own set of forces including adoption trends, liquidity cycles, and technological development.
She believes Bitcoin's underlying technology, its growing institutional adoption, and its role as a new form of monetary network continue to strengthen over time. Historically, the periods when sentiment is at its lowest have often been the moments that produced the strongest long-term returns. Bitcoin or the worry that we've heard about more than anything else in the last few weeks because it's all about quantum computing.
The last few weeks have been you know, lots of stories about quantum computing and I would say the the large shift in Bitcoin the OG's selling or just shifting wallets to more quantum resistant wallets. So I think that's really caused a lot of concern. And here's Michael Saylor's uh answer or I mean he was very reasonable last night in his discussion around quantum.
He doesn't think it's going to be an issue for 10 years or more. But he said here's what we're doing in terms of our commitment to Bitcoin security. And and so you can see some of those um those moves now. But I also wanted to show our research. Again, this is out of big ideas and this is when the quantum controversy had quieted down last year as it relates to Bitcoin.
So Brett Winton in as chief futurist has has a big focus on quantum because we can't miss the next big thing. It's all we do is disruptive innovation. And here I thought was a compelling analysis based on what has happened with quantum computing so far. And you can Google really leading the charge. That little black line on that chart.
So you can see that um it has been able to double the number of cubits over 4 years. Which is slower than Moore's law in the semiconductor space. And of course there there is an error rate consideration lowering that as well over 4 years. Um so if if Google does not pick up speed the red line tells you how long it will take Google to and and quantum computing to [clears throat] really threaten Bitcoin the Bitcoin blockchain as we know it now.
So we go into the 2060s there. Now if you make the assumption that Google's going to pick up the pace and that's an interesting assumption because typically we learn a lot in the early years of a new technology. You know um how how quickly are the units increasing and driving cost down. That's the learning curve associated with new technologies.
Now going into economics and again I'll I'll whip through this last part because um I'll do a more in-depth in the know next week when the employment numbers do come out. So here you can see the liquidity index. This is Dan Rodriguez's chart. And you'll you'll see liquidity dropped to uh dropped to a low level in November.
Why was that? It was the government shutdown. And we thought okay, this is going to be short-term. Liquidity will pick back up and the market will will take off again. And that is what happened. But recently you can see that it is back down. And what's happening there? Well, we had the threat of the shutdown and now we actually have the shutdown, partial shutdown.
And in mid-February, I think it's I think it might be February 14th there's going to be a vote around uh the Department of Homeland Security's budgeting and you know, it may shut down more completely then. So I do think there is somewhat of a liquidity drain. And then the other thing that's happening is the the Fed was supposed to stop quantitative tightening in early December and it and it did for the most part.
Um but its provision of liquidity to the system is lower than many analysts expected. Um in recent days in recent days it has started to pick up. You're seeing some of that now. And I do think the Fed and the Treasury are beginning to respond to what has happened to the financial markets. This administration does think does believe that the financial markets provide important signals.
And so they are probably assessing the liquidity liquidity conditions out there and um and moving accordingly. So I do think this one is probably moving in the other direction. Uh here you go. You've seen this chart many times, metals to gold. Uh We've learned something very important and I'll spend more time on this in next week.
Um but what surprised me and this is up to date up to date is with the fall off in gold recently that the metals to gold ratio has not picked up. That is really surprising to us. Um we've learned in recent weeks why the Treasury yield has been levitated. This very tight correlation between the metals to gold ratio and the Treasury yield broke down starting with the Fed tightening.
And you know, it's still gaping wide. Um we're learning and believing more and more that this is the yen carry trade unwind. What are they doing? Selling Treasuries and buying Japanese bonds. Why? Because Japanese interest rates have gone up. Cathie Wood is ultimately focusing on how shifting liquidity conditions are driving both financial markets and macroeconomic trends in unexpected ways.
According to Cathie Wood, recent market movements are strongly influenced by changes in global liquidity, which is the flow of money available in the financial system. She explains that earlier drops in liquidity were linked to temporary shocks like government shutdown fears, which briefly drained confidence and slowed market momentum.
When that pressure eased, markets recovered, showing how sensitive asset prices are to liquidity cycles rather than just fundamentals. However, she warns that liquidity is again becoming constrained. Ongoing political uncertainty and budget negotiations are creating renewed pressure, while the Federal Reserve's approach to quantitative tightening has not provided as much support to markets as many investors expected.
Even though there are early signs that liquidity may be stabilizing again, she believes policymakers are now closely watching financial conditions and may shift their stance if stress increases. She also discusses a surprising breakdown in traditional relationships between asset classes. Normally ratios such as metals versus gold and Treasury yields tend to move in predictable patterns, but she notes that these connections have recently weakened.
This shift changes global capital flows and creates unusual distortions in bond and commodity markets. If you find value in this content, please take a moment to like the video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications for more videos like this.
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