저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 관세 일시중단 이후 금 강세가 지속되며 금광주가 현 시점에서 가장 매력적인 투자처라는 주장. 관세와 시장 반응: 트럼프의 상호관세 발표는 큰 실책이었고, 채권시장 급락(10년물 4.5% 돌파, 30년물 5% 상회) 이후 일시중단으로 랠리가 나왔다고 봄. 기본관세 10%, 멕시코·캐나다 펜타닐 관세, 자동차 25% 관세는 유지. 무역적자 해석: 무역적자는 과소저축·과소지출의 증상이며, 관세는 미국 소비자가 부담하는 세금이라 스태그플레이션(고물가·저성장)을 키울 것이라고 주장. 금·원자재: 관세전쟁의 수혜자는 금광주. 금은 사상 최고 부근(3,100달러 근처)을 유지했고, 유가는 60달러 아래로 밀려 금광업체의 2분기 실적 기대를 높인다고 설명. 달러와 중앙은행: 외국 정부가 달러와 미국채를 줄이고 금을 사는 탈달러화 흐름이 강화될 것이며 달러는 크게 하락할 것으로 전망. 금광주 투자 논리: 금광주는 금 상승 대비 많이 오르지 않아 저평가 상태이고, 개인은 금광주를 팔고 있으며 중앙은행은 금광주가 아닌 금 현물을 산다고 주장. 금 3,000달러에서 4,000~5,000달러 상승 시 금광주는 몇 배 상승 가능성을 제시. 실행 전략: 실물 금 신규 매수보다 금광주 매수를 권유하고, 금광주가 3배 오르면 절반을 매도해 원금을 회수한 뒤 그 돈으로 실물 금을 사라고 제안. 자사 펀드(EPGIX) 및 일임 운용과 무료 보고서를 홍보하며, 리스크(광산주는 실물 금보다 위험)도 언급함. 출연자는 자사 상품 판매를 함께 권유하므로 이해상충 가능성이 있음.
다듬은 글
Today, the price of gold rose by better than $100 an ounce. This was the biggest one day dollar increase in the price of gold in the history of gold. And in fact, gold was up better than $100, even before President Trump announced that he was pausing the global trade war that he launched last week. Now, once that news came out, there was a big rally in the stock market.
Gold initially surrendered some of those gains, but it quickly recovered and closed back near the highs just under $3,100 an ounce. Now, I thought the announcement on Liberation Day of these so-called reciprocal tariffs, and I say so-called because we really didn't reciprocate for anything. They were reciprocal in name only.
But I thought it was a major policy blunder. and when stock and bond markets in particular because last night the bond market really started to crash and the yield on the uh 10-year Treasury got just above 4 and a.5% and the 30-year yield peaked above 5%. I think the president and his adviserss tried to find a way to surrender but make it appear as if they were declaring victory.
So that's really what Trump did today by pausing uh the reciprocal tariffs and the markets had a big relief rally because he undid a lot of the damage that he caused by launching a war that America can't win. Now yes, not all the tariffs are gone. The 10% baseline tariffs remain. Uh the fentanyl supposedly fentanyl related tariffs on Mexico and Canada remain.
that 25% auto tariffs remain and Trump is talking about other tariffs, but I think those reciprocal tariffs are not just paused. I think they're gone. I doubt that they're going to be resurrected because now that Trump has gotten a taste of the damage that they do, I don't think he has the stomach to bring them back.
And also, while Trump Trump might claim that he's got better leverage now, I think that if he had any leverage, he's lost it because I think he's shown just how vulnerable the US is to a trade war when we did so much damage, you know, within a week of launching it. See, the problem is, uh, the president thinks that we've got all the cards.
We don't. Uh, because we depend on the world. We depend on the world to supply us with the goods that we can't produce and we depend on the world to lend us the savings that we don't have. Trump is complaining about our record trade deficits and they hit record highs when he was president the first time and they got even worse under Biden.
He is correct to point to the trade deficits but the trade deficits are not the problem. They are a symptom of the problem. The reason we have these horrific trade deficits is because as a nation we spend too much and save too little. And so because we don't save enough, we don't make the capital investments to build up the factories and the supply chains and the infrastructure.
And so because of that, we have to rely on all those factories abroad for the goods that we can't produce. And because we spend more than we uh produce, we we we need to get those goods and we run these massive deficits that we can't finance. And so we depend on the world to finance them. But the way the world gets the money to finance our deficits is by recycling the trade surpluses that they have.
So it's been this uh benevolent kind of cycle and benevolent only in the short run because we've been uh sacrificing our future to indulge our present. But we export our inflation to buy imports and then our our creditors uh the countries that sold us those goods take the money they earned and they loan it right back to us by buying our treasuries and other kind of debt and buying stocks.
And so our financial assets go up, but it keeps our, you know, cost of living down. But what Trump wants to do is reverse all that. He wants other nations to eliminate their trade surpluses. Well, the only way they can do that is to sell us less stuff. And if they sell us less stuff, they're also going to loan us less money because they can't just buy more from us because we don't make the stuff that they need.
The only thing they can really buy more of is maybe our agricultural products or maybe our energy. But that's not nearly enough to solve the problems that have led to the trade deficit. Again, the trade deficit is a symptom. It's not the problem. But by focusing on the deficits and blaming our trading partners for a problem that we created, we actually don't do anything about solving the problem.
So, while I admire Trump's goal, he is not going to come close to achieving it. In fact, the tariffs that he's already imposed are going to backfire, and they're going to make the American economy even less competitive than it was before the tariffs. And the tariffs are paid by Americans. They're not going to be paid by our trading partners.
There is no external revenue. It's all internal. And this tax hike on average Americans is going to weigh down an already weak economy. And so we're going to have uh a bigger uh dose of stagflation. We're going to have a weaker economy with even higher inflation because as the trade deficit shrinks somewhat because of these uh tariffs because it now costs more money to buy foreign products.
And if it costs more, we're going to buy less. That means more of our money stays here bidding up prices for a smaller supply of goods. So, we're going to have higher inflation, a weaker economy. And so, the real winner of the trade war are gold mining stocks, which is the purpose of this video. Because what's happened as a result of the trade war is not only has gold held near record highs, one of the only assets not to sell off, but oil prices collapsed.
They actually went below $60 a barrel, although they closed back above it today. We had a pretty good key reversal. So I think the low is in for oil, but still oil has come down considerably relative to gold and that is going to be great for Q2 earnings for the gold mining companies. They're already going to have great earnings in Q1, but I think they're going to blow the doors off in Q2 because I think gold is going to hang out near 3100 or higher and uh oil is going to be slow to recover.
So in the meantime, uh the profits are going to be huge for these gold mining companies. And you know, I've been advocating for a long time that people buy physical gold, right? And since I started recommending physical gold, it was under 30 three under $300 an ounce. It's now over 3,000. So you've got a 10x.
But while gold itself has gone up 10x, most gold stocks aren't even close to those returns. There are a few uh but the vast majority have barely moved. You know, especially in the last year as gold has gone from 2,000 to 3,000. You've seen no interest really in the gold mining sector. And the main reason for that is because the public hasn't even been interested in gold.
It's central banks that have been buying gold as they've been ddollarizing. And based on what Trump has just done, I think foreign governments are more likely to want to get rid of their dollars and their treasuries than they were before. We've made it clear uh that, you know, we want these trade deficits gone.
We've also made it clear that we're not willing to defend the rest of the world. We want to make them pay uh for our defense. Well, what they were getting, one of the things they were getting for subsidizing our trade deficits and loaning us money and supplying us with goods is that we defended them in case they got into trouble.
Well, if we're not going to do that anymore and they've got to pay for their own defense, then why are they propping up our economy? You know, again, Donald Trump kept saying that the world was screwing us over and taking advantage of us. He's got it backwards. It's America that's been taken advantage of the world because we rely on the world to live beyond our means.
But the world can only finance that by living beneath its means. Well, that's going to change. It's going to change because the dollar is going to go way down. And so, we're going to consume less and the rest of the world's going to consume more. And that's how our trade deficits go away as our standard of living declines.
But in the meantime, the world is getting rid of dollars in advance of a major depreciation. You know, one of the things that every all the experts got wrong, they all thought the dollar would rise if we impose tariffs. Instead, it tanked. The same way they thought that interest rates would fall if the economy weakened, instead they surged.
So, the experts still don't understand what's going on. But that's the reason that these gold stocks are still so cheap. You know, all last year as gold rose 50%. Typical Americans were selling their gold and they were selling gold stocks. In fact, this year in the first quarter, GDX is an index of gold mining stocks and only one day in Q1 were their inflows.
Every other day of the quarter there were net outflows. Meaning as gold was going up basically every day, retail investors were selling their gold stocks every day. This is unprecedented. Normally when you're in a gold bull market and this is a powerful bull market, normally the stocks lead the metal because stocks are forward-looking and investors get excited.
They anticipate higher future gold prices, which means even higher earnings for these gold companies. Because as gold prices go up, it has a disproportionate impact on the earnings of gold stocks. So normally if gold goes up 10%, gold mining stocks might go up 20 or 30%. But what's been happening in this bull market is that gold has actually been going up more than the stocks and gold has been dragging the stocks.
The stocks always sell off every time gold has a small correction because everybody thinks the market's topped out. In fact, I've done several interviews this week about gold, and people keep saying, "Well, is it too late to buy? Is it a crowded trade?" It's not crowded at all. How could it be crowded if no one's bought it?
The only buyers are the central banks. That's why the stocks are still so cheap because central banks don't buy gold stocks. They buy gold. That's also why silver is cheap. They're not buying silver. The public buys silver and they're not buying it. So silver is still barely above $30 an ounce. But right now, the real opportunity isn't in gold or silver.
It's in the gold and silver mining companies. Because when you invest in a mining stock, you're buying gold and silver. You're just buying gold and silver that's still in the ground. See, when you're a shareholder of a gold company, you own a little bit of all their gold reserves. And the way they generate income and pay dividends is they take some of that gold out of the ground and they sell it, but they still have a lot of gold left in the ground and they still have exploration and development projects to replace the reserves that they lose.
But I've just prepared a special report the best way to buy gold, which you can download for free at the Europe Pacific Asset Management website. And the case that I'm making is that gold in the ground has never been this cheap relative to gold above the ground. So given that it makes no sense to buy above ground gold when you can get such a good deal on below ground gold.
You still own it. It's just in the ground. Now, sure, there's some more risks uh inherent in owning a mining company rather than just owning the gold after it's been mined. But right now, the upside potential, the reward for assuming that risk is so disproportionately and unprecedentedly high that it makes sense that that's where you focus your attention.
So, if you haven't bought any gold, if you've been following me all these years and now gold's at 3,000 and you're thinking, "Okay, finally, Peter, you've convinced me. I'm going to buy some gold." Don't do it. Buy the mining stocks instead. This is how you turn back the clock. Because the mining stocks are not priced for $3,000 gold.
They're not even priced for $2,000 gold. So, it's like buying gold at 2,000 except it's at 3,000. So even though you missed the boat, right, you can get back on. Now, you didn't miss it in the sense that I believe gold is going higher. I think gold's going to 4,000, 5,000, but you'll make a lot more money, I think, if you buy the mining stocks now because the move from 3,000 to 4,000.
That's about a 33% move. I think gold stocks could go up five or 10x on that move to catch up to where they should be as the naysayers throw in the towel and people finally start recognizing the opportunity that they've been oblivious to. Normally, uh, you know, you have enthusiasm and excitement. All you have is naysayers and negativity and fear.
The gold bull market has been climbing the mother of all walls of worry and the best opportunity is therefore in the mining stocks because while the public's been asleep, the foreign central banks have been buying and they're like the insiders, right? It's like insider trading. They're the insiders of the fiat monetary system and they know that the dollar's days are numbered and so they want to get rid of as many dollars and as many treasuries as they can and buy gold.
So rather than compete with them in buying gold, just buy the gold mining stocks that they're not buying, but you know that they will buy the gold once it's out of the ground. So you are buying a gold mining company knowing that you have a huge buyer for your product because the central banks around the world are going to buy all that gold as soon as it comes out of the ground.
And the same thing is true with silver. Although right now the central banks aren't buying that yet, but that is the real opportunity because you don't have to compete with central banks. You just go in there and buy it uh from, you know, foolish investors that are still selling these stocks at ridiculously cheap prices.
Now, here is what my plan would be. So, if you've never bought any gold, now is not the time to start. If you already own gold, fine. You can hold on to it. just don't buy anymore. Not above ground. Buy the gold mining stocks. Now, the plan would be wait for the stocks to make the initial big move. I think they got to at least triple minimum minimum to kind of get to where they should be.
So, let's say you make this investment in gold mining stocks instead of physical gold. And then the stocks triple. Now, you could sell some of those stock. Maybe you sell half. But if you triple your money and you sell half, right? You still got 50% more than you started with. And then you own the gold stocks for free, then you can take that money and buy gold.
And even if gold's gone up 50% during that time period, well, you got 50% more money to buy it. So, you got the same amount of gold, but now you got, you know, uh, all these gold stocks that that you own that you didn't even pay for because you're basically, uh, on the house's money because you cashed out all your original investment and you put it into physical gold.
So, download my special report and read about these gold stocks. Now also you could talk to the representatives at Europacific Asset Management because we have strategies that are built around gold stocks. We have separately managed accounts where we manage portfolios of gold and silver mining stocks.
We also have a mutual fund, the Europeacific Gold Fund. EPGIX is the symbol. That's the symbol for the fund. You can go look it up. You can buy at no load at any discount broker. Make sure and read this perspectus and uh be familiar with the risks. As I said, there are risks. There's more risks to buying a stock than just buying the physical metal.
But there's never been a point in time where the upside potential has been so disproportionately high relative to the downside risk that it's almost a once-ina-lifetime opportunity that you don't want to pass up. So, EPGIX is the symbol for my gold fund. So, you can buy it at your discount broker. You can buy it on my website.
You can go to the Europacific Asset Management website if you don't have a brokerage account. And you can just buy shares of the fund directly from my website without opening up a brokerage account anywhere or talk to uh the representatives at Europacific Asset Management. If you have a larger portfolio and you'd like us to manage it for you in uh gold and silver related equities, we can do that as well.
Anyway, I just really wanted to get this announcement out there. I've never really done this before. I've always kind of recommended both. I've always said everybody needs to buy some physical gold and silver and then you buy some mining stocks on top of that. But given this unprecedented dichotomy, just for now, just temporarily, I'm telling people now is not the time to finally make your physical gold investment.
This is the time to make up for the fact that you should have bought your gold a long time ago and you didn't by turning back the clock and taking advantage of this gift horse opportunity that we have in the gold and silver mining stocks. Now, I don't know how much longer uh this window is going to remain open.
My guess is that we're going to see an explosive rally soon. So, before it happens, make sure you become fully positioned. Uh get the free report, right? Read all about it. We got all the information in that report and I'm sure that will convince you that we're right and then you can take position in the in the mining sector before the next leg up in this huge and I think generational gold bull market. Bye for now everybody.
Comments 0