저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 파월 연준의 완화 기조와 시진핑의 헝다 구제 결정이 증시 반등을 이끌었고, 인플레 우려 투자자들도 주식을 사야 하는 상황이라는 주장. 연준 정책: 실업률이 높은 상태(특히 흑인 등 취약계층)에서 금리 인상은 부적절하다고 연준이 판단했다고 설명. 델타 변이가 경기를 짓누르고 있어 파월은 고용 개선 전까지 완화적 기조를 유지할 것이라고 봄. 인플레는 일시적이라며 파월의 입장을 옹호함. 인플레 논쟁: 인플레 매파 전문가들은 파월이 틀렸다고 보지만, 파월이 그들의 요구를 무시했기 때문에 매파 성향 펀드매니저들도 상승장을 놓치지 않으려 주식을 사야 한다는 논리. 중국/헝다: 시진핑이 부유층 규제를 강화해왔으나 헝다 사태는 결국 소형 대출기관과 지방은행 구제로 봉합. 헝다 리스크는 체계적 위험이 아니며 중국과 거래하려는 세계 각국이 손실을 감수할 것이라고 봄. 이로 인해 중국 관련주, 광산·석유·산업재, 은행주가 하락 후 반등 기대. 종목/지표: 다우 338포인트 상승(약 0.95%), 나스닥 1.02% 하락 언급. 구체적 목표가나 종목별 매수 추천은 없음. 리스크: 델타 변이 확산 및 인플레 장기화 가능성. 연준 긴축 논의는 향후로 미뤄짐. 출연자 전망: 파월 연준의 완화 유지 및 주식시장 상승 지지(단기~중기).
다듬은 글
in the end it doesn't matter what we you and me think it matters what they think i'm talking about the people calling the shots yet the dow surged 338 points today estimate gained 0.95 percent nasdaq fallen 1.02 because president xi and federal reserve chairman jay powell made decisions that they actually knew would spark rallies i don't think they were trying to choose the stock market it would be weird move from the president of china in particular but they wanted to do right by as many people as possible higher stock prices were just a byproduct a collaterally happy byproduct for everyone who's invested let's tackle our country first okay the federal reserve decided not to tighten here although they talked about doing in the future because they don't think it's appropriate to raise interest rates while unemployment remains elevated especially for historically disadvantaged groups like african americans although you don't ever hear the reporters talk about that jay pal doesn't want to leave anyone behind he knows the delta variant is weighing on the economy particularly on these the class of people that we just mentioned and he he's not too worried about the cost of keeping interest rates low he's worried about people not sharing the prosperity i like that he's going to remain accommodative until the labor markets in better shape and that's been consistent he's been saying all along now you're going to hear from plenty of experts tomorrow and even today we think jay is wrong because the inflation that's raging right now could deal real damage to the economy long term they'll whine at the inflationary pressures that he's saying that can be abated one day like the semiconductor shortage aren't simply solved by raising interest rates and questioning the demand for semiconductors can't have a shortage nobody's buying you can say the same thing about a lot of skyrocketing and plastic natural gas look if people stopped using if they didn't have any money if they were hurt then they would use less of the product and the supplies would therefore become more bountiful inflation would end pal is simply to them blind deaf and dumb to everything that's really happening in the country they see four plus percent inflation as a dire national emergency and they think he's nuts for allowing it to continue in order to boost employment me i don't care what any of those people think i don't even care what i think at least not when it comes to monetary policy i only care what jay pal thinks because he runs the fed he's got all the divisions we have nothing he doesn't have to listen to anyone except for his fellow open market committee members not that they even really matter although some of some of these fed guys they seem like really good stock pickers really good if powell wants a tight labor market to help poor people and he thinks that can happen by keeping rates low well that's what he's going to do doesn't matter what any of these commentators have to say about it they can trash him and say he's public enemy number one and make specious arguments about how inflation hits the poorest people the hardest never mind that you can say the same thing about unemployment none of that stuff matters to the fed working really to jay personally i agree with jay pal but again my opinion is also irrelevant here i know that that's how you should be thinking see jay he's got the juice now let's circle back to the stock market there are plenty of investors who thought powell would crumble and give into these inflation nieces because they see higher prices everywhere they figure he did too they didn't expect he'd be completely dismissive of their views he doesn't even really want to talk about tapering back on bond purchases until we get a better read on the damage from the delta variant pal has been remarkably consistent in his views but the inflation nurses don't want to listen they don't like him they want a ticker taper parade but if you were one of the inflation hawks who thought the fed would have to take a tough line today then now you got to go buy stocks because pal didn't listen to you pals put the concerns to rest see these these commentators who actually run money for people they can't refuse to buy stocks because they disagree with this politics they have investors and those investors won't forgive them for sitting out on a rally that they don't think should happen you see the clients are not ideologues or at least they're not ideologues when it comes to making money so even though all these commentators keep coming on air and saying that pal is outrageous as long as he's running the fed and they're not these money managers need to buy stocks or else they'll underperform and their investors will bear from their underperforming funds at the first opportunity regardless of whether they think there's raging inflation or not so these inflation agencies now have to buy stocks because pal simply refuse to play by their play book he runs the fed they just run money they lose he wins tomorrow they can and will start heckling him again heckling him again but i got news for them just like tom brady he wears the rings they're just grasping for his jersey after he's released the ball now let's deal with china like jay pal president xi also wants common prosperity but he comes from a different intellectual tradition the marxism leninism maoism school of thought china spent 40 years using free markets to lift people out of poverty but now they're cracking down on the wealthy in order to promote equality lately the chinese communist party has gotten aggressive about ruining the careers of not killing but just ruining the careers of people who profited from gaming or financial engineering or e-commerce or ride-sharing but she hasn't tackled the obscenely rich property mobiles because china's economy is very much driven by real estate as much as 30 percent then he gets his chance with this ever grand the colossally horrible real estate conglomerate that has 300 billion dollars in obligations i mean you know countries don't have that he made it clear that he wasn't going to bail out the company because they're reckless and they're run by at one point the richest man in china now that caused a ton of selling in everything related to china hey by the way including the mineral mining oil and industrial stocks even here even our banks got hit despite the fact that they can't really do much business in the prc anyway but stupid money managers always think all banks are tethered to each other so they sold them anyway did i call him stupid i'm sorry i should not have used that i should have said ill advised last night though president xi he blinked he decided to bail out the small lenders that those that bought property from evergrand and the local banks he didn't mean to settle a big worldwide rally he knows there's still some rich people who got away with this he's probably furious himself that he wasn't able to do a precision bombing of the rich without hurting the poor so instead he acted to stop the contagion and the rich lived ever happily ever after and so do the stock markets evergreen's got another big bill coming due tomorrow the one they owe farm bond owners these foreign bond buyers are mostly from countries that are totally on the hook to china it's like opium to them they can't get away from it because remember china is the second largest economy in the world and they're addicted to selling product to china so they're not going to care about these bonds they'll just take the hit that's why despite what you heard in the press the risk from evergreen never really was systemic okay because everybody wants to do business with china so they just over willing to overlook losses now let's put all this in the context of i i think sometimes imagery is powerful let's put it in the context of a bull okay you know i used to have a bull and his name was norman for 30 days the cows always ruled the roost the cows by the way are women bulls are men just well you know what i get a female male okay 30 days for 30 days the cow spooled the roost but one day a month the bull showed his prowess for those of you who don't get this agricultural analogy as much as i like the cows especially fine touch and ambush on that one day each month the bull like jay in these open market meetings was in charge the cows were submissive to the bulls they didn't have the votes right now we got two bulls in charge of the financials of two countries and at least for the moment they don't care what anyone else has to say they have a job to do and they're doing it the bottom line you can be a cow and try to avoid the bull all you want curse him charge him run from him but every now and then the bull gets its day today belonged to jay and she while i've still got plenty of worries two of the biggest have now been taken off the tabl
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