저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 달러는 약세로 갈 가능성이 크고, 금은 추가 상승할 것이며 금광주는 아직 성과가 부족하다. 연준 금리인하와 시장 패닉: 진행자가 연준 조치를 '패닉'이라 표현한 이유를 묻자, 패닉은 정당할 수 있다고 답함. 코로나19로 서비스업·항공 등 경제활동이 급격히 위축되고 있다고 진단. 연준의 딜레마: 연준은 지난 회의에서 정책 안정을 자찬했으나 데이터 변화로 두 개의 불길 사이에 갇혔다고 평가. 금리를 내리지 않으면 문제지만 50bp 인하도 이해 가능하며 추가 인하 가능성 시사. 국채금리 전망: 10년물이 0.25%까지 간다는 전망에 대해 0.8% 정도가 하단에 가깝다고 봄. 단기금리는 확실히 낮아질 것으로 봄. 장단기 금리 스프레드(2년-30년 100bp, 5년-30년 90bp) 확대 중이며 재정 부양 논의가 늘어날 것으로 예상. 채권 투자 판단: 금리 방향 예측은 큰 의미가 없고 10년물 국채 보유보다 현금 보유가 낫다고 조언. 국채 금리가 계속 떨어진다면 주식시장 바닥 확인이 어렵다는 점에 동의. 금 투자: 2018년 여름 1190달러에서 강세를 주장했고, 달러 약세가 정책처럼 진행되며 금이 유로 등 주요 통화 대비 사상 최고치라고 설명. 달러 대비 사상 최고치 경신은 거의 확실하다고 봄. 금광주는 연초 이후 성과가 미미해 대체자산으로서 금이 반달러 베팅으로 유효하다고 주장. 출연자 전망: 금은 상승, 달러는 약세, 10년 국채는 매력 낮음, 금광주는 상대적으로 부진하나 관심 필요.
다듬은 글
You use the word " panic" to describe the Fed's actions. Why do you use this word? Why were their actions not justified, because they may be concerned about panic among consumers. Perhaps they are also concerned that there could be a very real shutdown of business in this country, especially in the engine that makes the economy work, which is the service sector.
Yes, well, I don't object to that. When I say " panic," it doesn't mean it's not justified. I mean, sometimes panic is justified. If someone breaks into your house through a window, I think you should panic. Economic activity will likely decline. I mean, the evidence is becoming quite compelling . Today I received several emails from clients who had scheduled visits to DoubleLine saying, "We are canceling them." And I'm sure I'm not the only one .
And, of course, airlines are in free fall, and for good reason. And small business activity will decline. I think it's reckless to think that this won't deal a serious blow to short-term economic growth. I mean, what do you think, the Fed? Maybe grocery store sales will go up because of a short-term spike, but all other types of social activity are coming to a standstill.
So it's not surprising at all. Excuse me. Jeffrey, do you think the Fed made the right move? I believe that the rate cut was clearly justified. I mean, I don't like the way it was done . It seems, you know, they're caught between two fires. I mean , the Fed, I think when I say "panic," the Fed, in their last press conference, had a celebration of themselves, talking about how they had finally achieved stability in policy and that they could keep the course on hold for the foreseeable future, maybe even globally ; that we are in good condition; that discount rates are appropriate.
And I don't know, I thought it was a little presumptuous at the time, but the data set has certainly changed enough that the Fed is caught between two fires. If they don't lower the rates, you know, that's a real problem. The stock market is falling or was falling last week, it was a huge roller coaster, and the bond market activity , as I said earlier, with high-yield spreads just widening, while Treasury rates are falling as fast as high yields are rising.
I guess you can't blame the Fed for cutting rates by 50 basis points. They will probably have to do it again because this situation doesn't seem to be letting up. And you see the press conference of the president and doctors about the coronavirus, where they say that a vaccine could appear in about a year or a year and a half.
So, no one knows what's going on, so it's worth being careful. So, Scott Maynard told me the other day that 10-year bonds could fall as low as 25 basis points. I noted that we are currently at 91. We can test the 90 mark, which is a record. How low do you think they can go? I think we're pretty close to the minimum now.
Maybe we'll get to 80 basis points on the 10-year bond. I don't really believe in 10-year bonds at 25 basis points. I think this is just an extrapolation of the movement that has already happened. I believe that short-term rates will definitely be lower. There is no upward pressure on short-term rates , but we are starting to see the yield curve steepening, and it is quite noticeable.
Not exactly today, although it fluctuates, but right now we have a 100 basis point spread between 2-year and 30- year bonds and 90 basis points between 5-year and 30- year, which are levels we haven't seen in a long time. So I think we're getting closer to a time when there will be a lot more talk about fiscal stimulus.
In fact, I think we'll hear about this a lot in the coming days, and it's hard to understand why there should be demand for 30- year bonds at 1.60 or 1.50 percent, or 10-years at 80 basis points, when there's such a large supply coming into the market. But I don't think predicting the direction of interest rates makes much sense right now.
You still won't make any money. I think it's better to stay in cash than to own 10- year Treasury bonds, because the potential return , even if you're right and 10- year bond rates go lower, just won't make you a profit. You simply find yourself in a situation where there is risk without any return.
But you can understand why some people look at, for example, the 10-year bond and say— and we've discussed this on this program many times—as long as the 10- year Treasury yield continues to fall, it's hard to be sure that the stock market has bottomed. I agree with that. I think the asset worth owning—and I've been saying this for almost two years now—is gold.
I became bullish on gold in the summer of 2018 during my Total Return webcast when it was 1190. And it seems to me, as I said in my Just Markets webcast, which is available on doubleline.com, that the dollar will weaken. And the weakening of the dollar seems to have almost become policy, and the fact that the Fed is lowering and sharply cutting rates will obviously negatively affect the dollar.
And this means that gold will grow. Gold is doing extremely well, even though the dollar has barely moved in the last 14 months or so. Gold is currently at an all-time high against the euro and many other currencies, and I feel it is almost certain that gold will reach an all-time high against the dollar as well.
And gold is really showing great results. Gold mining companies have not justified themselves at all . I mean, maybe they've grown today, but they've barely shown any results since the beginning of the year. Therefore, I believe that in the current environment it is worth paying attention to alternative assets , not financial ones, and gold is an anti-dollar bet that, in my opinion, will remain profitable.
So I'm not considering buying 10- year bonds to make money. You make a lot more money doing other things.
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