저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
요약 보기
2020년 3월 5일 방송 기준, 채권시장 공포(장단기 금리 급락)가 있었지만 주식시장이 이를 이기며 크게 반등했다는 진단. 주요 주장: 코로나 공포와 샌더스 대선 우려로 주식이 과매도 상태였고, 국채 금리 급락은 안전자산 쏠림에 따른 것으로 경기침체 신호이나 금융위기는 아니라고 봤다. 연준의 긴급 금리인하는 패닉과 무능을 드러내 오히려 역효과라고 비판. 근거 지표: 시장엣지(Market Edge) 오실레이터가 -12 아래로 내려가면 거의 항상 매수 기회였다고 주장(9/11, 2011 부채한도, 2016 중국 증시, 2018년 말 사례). 다만 2008년 금융위기 때는 실패했다고 인정하며 현재는 금융위기가 아니라 보건위기라고 판단. 시장 전망: 단기·장기 모두 주식 매수 신호라고 봤고, 경미한 경기침체(여행·엔터테인먼트 타격)는 예상하나 정부 지원으로 회복할 것이라 전망. 미국 10년물 금리는 1% 부근에서 극단적 수준이라고 언급. 종목 언급: FedEx(실적 발표 앞두고 도박 같다고 평가), 스탠리 블랙앤데커(중국 공급망 리스크 지적), 홈디포(분산 투자 대안으로 언급), 금(개인 투자 관련 질문에 간접 언급), 인덱스펀드 관련 질문 언급. 시장 전반: 대선 슈퍼화요일 결과 이후 반등, 추가 부양책 기대는 부정적으로 봄. 리스크: 경기 둔화 가능성, 중국 공급망, 코로나 악재 추가 가능성. 출연자 전망은 전반적으로 낙관적.
다듬은 글
bear money welcome to cream Erica I'll be one make friends I'm just trying to make a littl and put big days like this in of course at Jim Kramer right now I'd have a stock market and the bond market are like two heavyweight champions duking it out today stocks had a very good round down surging 1173 points the SP skyrocketing four point two two percent Nasdaq soaring three point eight five percent who are these two boxers in one corner you have a stock market that had gotten viciously oversold thanks yes of course to the corona virus outbreak and Wall Street's existential fear of a Bernie Sanders presidency in the other corner well you've got the bomb market specifically US Treasuries every time they go up in price and go down and yield lately their yields have been plummeting sending sent a chill through the spine of all investors who follow both markets now this is a vicious and I will tell you somewhat scary situation for us hold hands but bond yields so frightening loaded they've been decking the much smaller stock market as surely as Muhammad Ali the greatest of all time sent so many challengers to the canvass the bomb markets still screaming that we're not out of the woods that were being complacent but it couldn't man that he'd closed today because rates actually rose and the ten-year Treasury which had a sub 1 percent yield went back over that key level also integral to the rally but let me explain first we know there's a tremendous amount of fear in this market we're afraid of getting sick physically afraid if our cells pray for our families for our children for our parents for our spouses we're afraid of the economic fallout from a possible pandemic when investors are terrified you get what's known as a flight to safety people just want to hide the lowest risk assets they can find even they get very little return maybe no return and yours Treasuries are viewed as the ultimate safe haven and that's why wealth invest institutions are pouring their money into our bonds they don't want to they don't care to make any money just don't want to lose it and that's why interest rates keep plummeting it's why the benchmark 10-year Treasury currently yields just above 1% but was below 1% a couple of days since that's close to record yeah today's still close to record both buyers desperately want these bonds for protection the sellers won't let them go which is how you get a market that Rises and rates go lower our Treasury secretary which I'm not I take advantage of this moment to offer billions or even trillions of dollars in long-term bonds make America great bonds I don't care what you call them now the White House can't obviously spend that money without congressional approval but even so this is the perfect time for the federal government to try to refinance what I can of the old national debt or of course issue bonds to fix all our airports and our roads and who are awful and third world I'm sorry undeveloped land whatever without new supply these bonds are doomed to keep going higher every time we get scared by Co vid 19 and we will again judging by the worldwide nature of the outbreak I think it's a given that there'll be more bad news I know I people feeling like we're out of the woods well come on I mean it's too early the lack of economic activity in terms of travel leisure dining and entertainment pushes rates down even further if businesses cease operating in a normal fashion and everyone starts working at home including the people who don't have a job a lengthy work then you're bound to get a severe economic slowdown the bonds are signaling recession for certain because of the coronavirus and that's why the Fed wrong Headingley wrongheaded Lee slashed short race yesterday because lower rates won't make people more willing to go on vacation in the middle of an epidemic lower rates are not the tonic we need this is more important than lower rates this in fact that rate cut not only signaled panic worse it's singing cluelessness this is not a financial crisis for heaven's sake it's a public health crisis it's great to have lower rates if there's demand for money but when there's no demand because you're too afraid to go outside let alone go buy a car refinance I mean come on paradoxically what happened the rate cuts might hurt us I speak to many older people who seem more worried about not getting enough return from their fixed income then they are about coming down with the coronavirus maybe they should be more concerned because we know the death rates for older people but I'm just telling it as it is the combination of those fears gave us the stock market that seemed to know no bottom but today the other fighter the heavyweight I've been on all my career the technicals gave stocks a major boost I'm talking about the market edge short-range oscillator it's a proprietary indicator that I pay to see if - the market closes every day I'm beginning in four years I've been getting since the 1980s it really matters to me just be the ESPY now let's put out by market edge this is the source I like to credit something that's so important in my thinking this darn thing is so reliable that even in the midst of a bearish biological bond crisis it allowed stocks to win the round what does not Slater do it measures buying or selling pressure and in particular tells us when the selling may have gotten out of control when you are caught up in events you may not actually know the things have gotten out of control you're looking for totems for benchmarks for tokens anything that makes you feel like wait a second guys things got too crazy and that's why I pay for market edge coms oscillator to make that judgment call for me it's pretty simple - I mean the author's between negative five and five you're in the neutral zone doesn't matter it doesn't really work when it goes above five well there's too much euphoria when it's below negative five there's too much gloom above five you probably with a little cell and below negative five your popular to start doing some buying so they cover your shorts the more extreme the reading the more aggressive you yeah so when the oscillator goes below negative 12 my benchmark there's almost always a great time to buy almost always we stole this after 9/11 when that terrible tragedy turned out to be a one-off event we saw it on August 11th of 2011 when everyone was terrified the US government might default during the debt ceiling crisis and our debt was course downgraded by none other than we we saw it in January 2016 when the Chinese stock market collapsed right at that when the Fed seemed hell-bent on raising rates and we saw it again at the end of 2018 when the Fed once again tightened way too aggressively and proved to me it's time was a marvelous moment to buy stocks each time stocks were overreacting to some news that turned out to be not as serious as Wall Street believed sure things were bad but they weren't that bad they weren't that bad they weren't that bad they were bad whoo they weren't that bad they weren't too bad they weren't a bit more a bit ok and these things were all solved let's talk about this though this is the one time where the market edge oscillator failed ok this is what I think is the outlier the Great Recession if you bought stocks when the oscillator hit minus 12 back then well guess what you did get smoked because we were dealing with the true financial crisis we're nearly all of our biggest banks and big insurers to were in danger of going under the government particularly the Fed had no idea how bad things were by the time the Fed started cutting rates of grassley it was too little too late the stock market got more than cut in half before at bottom and many of our famous financial institutions became let's just say moribund now is this coronavirus panic more like the financial crisis here or is it like this this this this this which is it like which is it like of the minus 12 four times it worked in recent history there was no credit crisis there were no big failures there was no systemic risk the one time we failed to bounce we had all those problems the reason it was so wrong for the Fed to cut yesterday said it made old hands like me feel like there's got to be this this is what we worried act into that it must be some credit crisis that we don't know about some institutions on the verge of the Fed come on Jay just like in the Great Recession that's what did Jay they were trying to restore confidence all they did was still pan or thank heavens we got over that quickly as I said over and over again this is a biological crisis with with economic fallout it could hurt higher include calls layoffs but if the federal government helps tide over small businesses and the short term unemployed as Congress seems to want to do I think will come out on the other side just fine even without brakes closing down Commerce all over the country I expect a mild recession based on weakness and travel and entertainment but right now the oscillators saying should buy stocks both short and long-term even after today's increase my friend bill at market edges just told me we remain at double-digit negativity more good news for the Bulls more likely that we're here and not here okay of course you could say this rally reflects more than just an oversold bounce obviously Joe Biden's strong Super Tuesday performance allowed Wall Street to breather you'd sigh of relief maybe we're betting on more stimulus I don't really like that but I heard it all day because people can't resist saying stuff like that maybe a possible cure I don't think we're getting that either but I see it's a it's a traditional step back and even if you disagree you can use this strength that we're getting right now you're so oh you would get rid of all those bad stocks you don't like you worried about the fill-in sell sell sell for all I care as for me yes we lightened up a bit on stocks we bought during the downturn for my Chapel Trust which you can follow by joining the action alerts plus Nikon Club just please just be improving it for gigantic game we're still very long the bottom line the stock market champ put the bearish bond market challengers through the meat grinder today turbocharged by the turn against socialism and last night's primaries missed the bout don't worry I'm sure there'll be one again tomorrow Wayne in New York Wayne hey Jim Wayne moaning : tonight on swk Family Black & Decker this past Monday and family presented at the Raymond James and tonight institutional investors conference and they were given their virus impact situation they were going over their supply chain exposure on their ten factories in China and they're moving back you know what they should move all their back I'm actually disappointed that Stan Lee just kind of just ceded their future the Chinese we sell foolish that was other companies are making that same darn mistake I think Stan Lee would look if you want to do that buy it then go buy Home Depot I think you want the diversity you don't have the Chinese risk and once again I remind companies watch what happened this time around if you were too dependent on China whether you a drug company whether you were a hammer company I don't care you look very ill-advised and you're only getting the term ill-advised because tonight I feel like Jimi chill let's go to Kerry and Nevada Kerry - this is Carrie and Ivana and I'm watching Michelle for a long time I bought food be OoT at 36 around 3 weeks ago when you had the interview with the CEO right and since I bought it and it's gone down around 20 percent and is plummeted around 60% from its tree to the high of 48 I can't tell if it's going to continue to go down or if I should keep it like the model we had them on the show Road number of times Matt boss likes them I'll have to check in with Matt I do think that they are they have the during good shape they are retailer retailers have been very varied here Greg in New Jersey Greg we are we doing Jimmy kill Jimmy Chile's taking it he's taking it just take it to the house first-time caller longtime listener okay I wanted to get your thoughts on FedEx leading into earning rolling the dice my friend you're rolling the dice and I don't like dice I like cards better because I have a memory for the no memory cards but I think FedEx is you know maybe you want to do it in calls but you got to see you in China come back online you want Congress to come back online you went to match and come back home one that's a lot of lines now in one query you got the stock market and the other quarter you got the bomb Morgan they the latter was put through the meat grinder missed it out tomorrow we'll get another bout I think we're more like this and like this and like this and like this and not like that j-pal may disagree with me he's fed she's paid but I know submit Mike oh man money tonight with interest rates at record lows good that was just voting eucharist could an investment in gold make sense here I'm totally the CEO of one man favors Barrett goal plan I was head then it's the most popular method of investing actually reached its apex don't miss my take on index funds especially the sliver climb and did coronavirus fears impact dollar trees most recent quarter was in execution problems I've got the exclusiveness veto
Comments 0