저자: Chase · 외국인
요약 보기
버크셔 해서웨이의 3분기 포트폴리오 매수 종목을 분석하며, 약세장에서 저가 매수 기회가 왔다는 입장을 전함 - 결론: 약세장 진입 후 버핏식 역발상 투자 관점에서 버크셔가 저가 매수 중이라고 주장 - 투자 철학: 'Be fearful when others are greedy' 인용, 공포 속에서 매수 필요 - 버크셔 3분기 매수 종목: 애플(약 5,220만 주, 약 187달러 기준), 뱅크오브아메리카(약 2억 주 가까이, 약 28달러), JP모건(신규 편입, 약 40억 달러 투입), 골드만삭스, US뱅코프(약 2,500만 주, 약 55달러), 뱅크오브뉴욕멜론(약 1,300만 주), 델타항공, 오라클(약 4,100만 주, 약 50달러), GM(지분 확대), PNC(약 600만 주, 약 134달러), 트래블러스(약 123달러 기준 약 350만 주), 스톤코(Stone Co.) - 애플: 생태계 기반 성장과 큰 현금 보유, 장부가 대비 밸류에이션 부담 낮다고 평가 - 델타항공: 항공산업 진입장벽 높고 현금흐름과 배당이 양호하다고 평가, 본인 포트폴리오 보유 - 금융주: 금리 상승 시 대출 금리 상승분이 수익으로 이어진다는 논리로 긍정적 전망 제시 - 금리 전망: 역사적으로 저금리 상태이므로 금리는 3%를 넘어 상승할 것으로 봄 - 향후 계획: 2019년 2월 분기 공시 시 후속 영상 예정 - 출연자 리스크 언급: 공매도·풋옵션은 본인 포트폴리오에서 비중이 크지 않을 것이라 밝힘
다듬은 글
what is going on guys, my name is Chase, and welcome back to Intelligent Money Investing. Now that we have officially dropped into bear market territory, I want to talk to you a little bit about what stocks I'm adding, and what stocks a lot of money managers like Warren Buffett and the big conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway are, I speculate, buying right now at these low price levels. So today we're going through a bit of their mindset in this drop, the mindset I'm seeing online and from a bunch of like-minded investors, and which stocks Berkshire Hathaway picked up in the third quarter of this year and which stocks I think they'll be picking up through the end of this fourth quarter. Alright, let's get right into it.
I want to start with the general mindset of investors right now. One of my favorite quotes, which I haven't had much chance to act on because of the opportunities in the market so far, is Warren Buffett's: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." A lot of investors say they'll buy when the time comes. They tell themselves, "Okay, when the market's down, I'll know exactly when to buy in, I'll buy low, and I'll have the guts to do it when everybody's telling me to sell and that it's the end of the world for the stock market." That's the quote in a nutshell: going against the general thought process. When the market is going up, everybody online says it can't be stopped, it's going up for everyone. When it goes down, everybody says, "Alright, we're going to be in a bear market for the next 20 years, that's what people are telling me." I see this a lot on Reddit and on my own Discord channel, which you should check out if you haven't already. It's a totally free chatroom with a community of investors, and it's definitely worth a look if you're a fan of the channel.
I believe a lot of people need to live by that practice, and it's something I'm trying to follow now, because this is an opportunity. I can guarantee you, and I'm really excited to see what Berkshire Hathaway has been doing in quarter four, that they're taking advantage of this bear market, which we haven't seen in some years, with this big 20% drop.
Another Buffett quote I heard the other day, from a video of his, is that he doesn't know when to buy, but he absolutely knows what to buy. I'm paraphrasing, but that's the gist. Many of the companies he's been picking up in the third quarter are, I don't think, a terrible place to start your own due diligence, and then decide whether the price looks attractive to you. The stock prices of many of the companies I'm about to discuss are 15 to 20 percent below where they were when Buffett was buying, and I'm sure he's sizing up his positions as this market drops further.
I hope you enjoyed that little thought process. I know it might ruffle some of your feathers, because many of you are the more emotional investors we're seeing right now, and I'm not going to fault you. Many of you went in with a strategy of getting your puts and shorts in on this downturn and have made a lot of money you can now reinvest. I view myself as more of a long-term investor, and I don't really mess around with shorts or options as of now. I might add them later, but they'll never be a significant part of my portfolio. I'm looking to invest in companies that I think will be solid for the long run and make a lot of money, and thereby pay me out and generate profits for me.
Let's look through the companies Berkshire Hathaway has been buying, some of their new positions, and talk about what they've been doing lately.
In Q3, Apple is Berkshire Hathaway's biggest position. They added 5.22 million shares of Apple at about $187 per share. The price shown here is a recent stock price drawn from The Motley Fool over the entire quarter in which they were adding, and they were likely adding every week, probably every day, at different prices. So the recent price just reflects the end of the period; it's not the exact price they bought at, just a general guess. Apple is obviously much lower than that now. With such a big position, I think they really buy into the thesis that Apple's ecosystem will keep driving the company now and beyond, and they have a huge cash pile. The price-to-book value on Apple isn't terrible compared to its competitors, and I really think it's a strong company going forward. I recently picked up another share of Apple for my own personal portfolio.
Another of Berkshire's huge positions is Bank of America. They continued adding to that position, almost 200 million more shares at around $28. With this bear market, I don't really need to tell you that so many of these stocks are incredibly far down from where they were. I believe Goldman Sachs is trading around $160 now, JP Morgan is trading under $100, and I don't follow US Bancorp quite as much, but as you can see, 25 million shares were added at about $55 a share. It's just incredible.
One thing to note about JP Morgan Chase is that it's a new position for Berkshire Hathaway. They're sizing up a position they went out of their way to open, deciding JP Morgan was a strong enough conviction buy to start a new position and put almost four billion dollars into the company. That's an incredible nod of confidence, especially when Berkshire adds a new name to its portfolio, because I believe they've only given their stamp of approval to about 40 stocks for their publicly traded portfolio.
Bank of New York Mellon: they added another 13 million shares. Delta Airlines: I believe I'll do a video on this in the future, but Buffett has a big play in airlines. I think he views them as the next railroad stocks. Back in the day, I believe he felt the industry was so high-barrier that it couldn't really be competed with, because of the intensive capital needed to break into that business. Delta is a pretty strong stock with very good service, I don't see any competitors knocking them off in the future, they're generating cash, they have a nice dividend, and it's one of the stocks I personally hold in my portfolio.
They also added Oracle to the portfolio: 41 million shares at about $50 per share, another new name. Among the last few, there are a bunch of new ones. GM: they sized up their position a little. I remember the position being pretty small, and I'm honestly surprised they're adding it going into this market, especially with the market going down. But it shows they have a lot of confidence in GM going forward, and it might be one to consider, especially with the low P/E multiples the auto companies are trading at right now, Tesla aside. I'm sure you can also get a very good dividend on GM these days.
PNC Financial is another one they picked up at about $134 per share. As I said, that's a general estimate of where they would have bought over the quarter. They picked up over six million shares. These share amounts are exact, because they have to file them legally. I'm interested to see these numbers, which I believe came out sometime last month. They have to release these quarterly, so around February I'll be able to do another one of these videos and talk about what I think is right on.
Travelers Companies: they also picked up shares at about $123 per share, roughly 3.5 million shares. And Stone Corp (Chinese ticker: 6000?) — actually, the one listed as "Stone Code Blue" is an international company they took a position in. I believe it was one of the smaller portfolio managers at Berkshire who went into this one. I'm really interested to see how that position turns out, and I know it's down pretty heavily right now.
Overall, I believe they'll be widening their positions in many of these companies, especially in the financial sector. For me, I'd love for someone to debate me on this in the comments, because I don't really understand why financial stocks are falling so much in a rising-rate environment. They will likely be able to make more revenue and profit going forward, because they'll be lending at higher rates. A lot of the time, with the money they manage, they won't have to pass the rising rates on to their customers. So even if interest rates rise 0.5%, they might only raise the rates their customers get by 0.2 or 0.1 percent, and keep the rest as profit. I'd love a good debate on that in the comments, and if anyone has differing opinions, give me the bear thesis on those bank stocks, because Buffett clearly gives them strong support. Roughly half of the names I'm discussing here are bank stocks, and I think interest rates are likely to keep rising well into the future.
Another thing I heard him say a long time ago is that historically our interest rates are extremely low right now, and it doesn't make sense for them not to return to a higher normal level. Even if it hurts the economy, a lot of it is people freaking out about what they think rates will do in the future. Maybe people did a lot of buying a few months ago, before rates rose, to try to get in. But I believe we'll see more and more rate rises, until maybe we sit around 5 or 6 percent. Who knows? Obviously that's just a guess as of now, but I wouldn't imagine we stay around 3 percent for very long.
That's what I've got for you today. I really hope you enjoyed this video. If you did, please leave a like and a comment telling me what you think of my thought process. If I'm totally wrong, let me know, I'd love to talk about it in the comments. Otherwise, hit subscribe if you haven't already, and I'll see you in the next one. Thanks for watching.
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