저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
거시 투자자 Ray Dalio는 대규모 부채와 화폐 발행, 국내외 갈등, 세계질서 변화라는 세 가지 전례 드문 요인을 강조한다. 중앙은행의 화폐 발행으로 인플레이션이 높아졌고 근원 인플레이션은 약 12%로 보며 계속 상승 중이라고 진단한다. 연준의 긴축과 높은 금리로 인해 유동성이 압박받는 상황이 1970년대와 유사하다고 본다. 인플레이션 국면에서 채권 등 현금성 자산은 구매력을 잃는다고 설명한다. 투자자 심리가 인플레이션 대응으로 기울며 자산 배분이 바뀌고, 이것이 다시 인플레이션을 강화하는 자기강화적 패턴이 나타난다고 말한다. 1970년대에는 채권이 최악, 1980년대에는 최고의 자산이었다는 역사적 사례를 든다.
다듬은 글
I'm a global macro investor and economics markets politics and geopolitics all matter in my life there have been a number of times where things came along that I never saw before and they surprised me cost me money and then I realized when I studied history that they happened many times in history repeatedly and there were three things that are happening in our lifetimes that never happened in my lifetime or our lifetimes and that I learned before I have to study past periods and those three things are the creation of a lot of debt and money the second is the amount of internal conflict that we're having over money and values and what that's like and the third is the changing world order with countries like China and Russia competing with the United States in a way that didn't exist before it's a basic thing everybody agrees we need more money and we need more spending but if you spend more than you earn you have to borrow and that creates debt at first it's credit so it gives you buying power but you have to pay it back and that becomes depressing and so in order to avoid that central banks can print money and buy it back but when they do that that depreciates the value of money so what we had was a lot of money and credit go out to a lot of people a lot of buying power everybody everybody when they got it they thought Ah that's great and somehow they seemed surprised that when when they spend it the prices of everything go up but the truth is that if you divide the amount of money and credit that's used for spending by the quantity of goods produced you can calculate well the prices will change and so that's what's going on and that's what went on in a giant wave the Federal Reserve and the government together and that produced a giant amount of infation between 7 and a half if you use year of aear or if you take a core inflation rate it's closer to 12 and it's rising there's some temporary influence but it's basically because of the amount of spending you can measure the amount of spending not because of the bottlenecks buying power is what matters right so what happens is when inflation goes up faster than your other sources of income you lose buying power but somehow that seems more acceptable sometimes to people than if it was just taken out of your pocket you see if they let's say raise taxes or take it out of somebody's pocket everybody complains whoever's had the pocket taken out of but if it comes through printing of money and everybody gets checks it's more acceptable but those who are holding money like money market funds and bond funds lose the buying power of that so think about those bond funds those bond funds are like down about 10% and inflation is up over let's call it 8% so they lost 18% of the buying power we think of it as meaning higher prices but to some extent that's a rich man's perspective because they say oh now I have to pay more but the reality is you don't get more stuff from that higher inflation and so it bids it out of the hands of some people and that hurts the people who don't get it and so we're seeing a time now where you're going to lose buying power to inflation and now you're going to see the Federal Reserve also tighten money tighten money in credit and raise interest rates and when they do that that creates less buying power you know they say okay now you can't spend as much money and the prices are going high but they do that in their crude way of trying to reduce inflation but you get it from both ends the higher price is and then the higher interest rate you have to pay and the higher debts service costs and also less availability of money so it's a squeeze like the squeeze that happened in the 1970s these things go in Paradigm shifts that quite often take you know relatively long time because everybody's mindset is in a certain place and they're doing certain things for example investors think that cash is safe and they don't pay much attention to inflation and then what happens is they get inflation and they realize that if I'm holding cash I'm losing buying power so then they shift they sell out their cash or they sell out their bonds and they put that into other things and when they do that that also contributes to inflation changes like that also happen in a lot of ways like cost of living increases in compensation where in the past when they don't worry about inflation then they don't think about do I have an inflation linked contract for my work or do I have enough inflation assets it might be oh do I need to buy I'm going to store my money in a house and so that pendulum swing from one mindset and one positioning to another mindset and another positioning in the early stages tends to be self-reinforcing those actions produce more inflation and more inflation psychology until that goes to the opposite extreme like in the 1970s people were surprised about what happened because they weren't used to inflation much then you had the inflation and in the beginning it swung and then at the end of it they said inflation will never end and everybody's position for it never ending and then of course what happens is it's so bad that then the Central Bank goes the opposite extreme and then they get surprised and so the 80s was a period which was the exact opposite of the 70s where you have falling inflation High real interest rates and so on and so the worst assets to own in the 70s were bonds and the best ass set the all in the 80s were bonds so you see these pendulum swings that way
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