저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 장기 투자자에게는 주식이 가장 유리한 자산이며, 단기 변동성을 견딘다면 분산투자 주식 포트폴리오가 적합하다는 책 내용 소개 영상. 책 개요: 'Investing in Stocks for the Long Run'(제레미 시겔)은 1802년 이후 약 200년 데이터를 분석해, 장기 보유 시 주식이 최고의 자산군이라고 주장한다. 최악의 20년 기간에도 물가 조정 후 주식은 20% 이상 상승, 채권은 60% 하락했다고 소개. 실질수익률: 분석 기간 분산 주식 포트폴리오의 실질 수익률 연평균 6.6%, 구매력이 약 10년마다 두 배 수준이 된다고 설명. 교훈 1 - 위험 측정: 단기 주식은 불쾌한 가격 변동이 있지만, 장기적으로는 가장 위험이 낮은 자산이며 각 30년 구간에서 최고 성과를 냈다. 개인투자자는 장기 관점으로 기관 대비 유리하다. 교훈 2 - 성장의 신화: 고성장 섹터·국가는 높은 밸류에이션과 잦은 신주 발행으로 수익률이 낮아질 수 있다. 예시로 필립모리스는 1957~2012년 S&P500에서 가장 높은 수익을 냈는데, 가격 결정력과 높은 진입장벽 덕분이었다(연평균 약 19.7%로 언급). 교훈 3 - 글로벌 분산: 미국 시장은 세계 시가총액의 절반 미만. 1900~2012년 스웨덴·호주·남아공 수익률이 미국보다 높았고, 덴마크·뉴질랜드·캐나다·영국·스위스는 미국과 유사했다. 교훈 4 - 주주가치의 원천: 주식 가치는 현재와 미래 배당의 가치에 달려 있으며, 배당을 지금 하지 않더라도 배당 지급 능력이 중요하다. 버크셔 해서웨이는 1968년 이후 배당을 하지 않았지만 지급 능력이 크게 늘어 가치가 높아졌다는 예시. 교훈 5 - 행동재무학: 1929~1932년 미국 주식 약 90% 하락, 1973~74년 영국 시장 약 75% 하락 등 큰 폭락이 있었다. 장기 투자자는 폭락, 공포, 과신, 버블을 피할 수 없으며 이를 인식하고 장기적으로 말이 안 되는 종목 매수를 피해야 한다. 실천 조언: 펀더멘털이 좋은 기업에 집중하거나, 시간이 없다면 지수(ETF)를 꾸준히 매수하는 것이 장기적으로 좋은 전략이라고 제시. 출연자 전망: 해당 영상에서 특정 종목·자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
The lessons from the book "Investing in Stocks for the Long Run" are here, but first, leave a like, subscribe to the channel to receive more videos, and activate notifications. " Investing in Stocks for the Long Run" by Jerry McBiel is the book for you if you need some conviction that stocks are the best asset class over a long period of time.
The book has become the bible of the market. The author meticulously researched stock prices over 200 years and concluded that investors who put their money into stocks for the long term end up winning. His data showed that in the worst 20-year period, stocks rose more than twenty percent adjusted for inflation, while fixed-income securities fell sixty percent in the worst 20 years.
The book proves the fact that there is no better place to invest your money than the stock market, provided you are prepared to tolerate high price volatility and have a long investment horizon. The book shows stock market returns since 1802 and shows how stocks performed in different periods at that time, and it presents a powerful case for designing a portfolio.
Primarily focusing on stocks, the book shows that over the two hundred and ten years examined, the Real Return of a diversified stock portfolio averaged 6.6 percent per year. It shows that the Real Return of a diversified stock portfolio, as an index, averages 6.6 percent per year, meaning that your purchasing power almost doubles every decade.
The goal of investing is to increase your purchasing power. There would be no point in investing if you could buy the same number of products. Twenty years from now, you need to be able to buy more products in 20 years, and this is reflected in greater purchasing power. Now let's get to the lessons from the book.
Lesson number one: How to measure risk. It is very important for the investor to know how you will define and measure risk. The book shows here that in the short term, stocks are very good, and you will get some very unpleasant price movements. It also says that in the long term, stocks are the assets with the lowest risk.
Stocks have performed best in each 30-year period analyzed. Therefore, if you have a long time horizon, you should be investing in stocks, and as an individual investor, you will have an advantage. Professionals who can afford to have a long-term vision already use professional investors as fund managers who are evaluated year-on-year, and year-on-year returns in the stock market are very volatile.
The long-term investor can afford to be much more patient, allowing them to weather the difficult times in the market and not be tempted to sell during market downturns. Lesson number two: Myths of economic growth and returns. Most investors say that people should be investing in high-growth sectors or markets.
This makes sense; naturally, an investor wants to see growth and feel that this should be reflected in their returns. However, the book shows here that these high-growth sectors or markets do not offer the highest returns for the investor. It points to two main reasons: 1. High-growth sectors or countries tend to have very high valuations, which automatically fixes prices at that growth and often leads to overvaluation.
This reduces future returns below average. 2. High- growth sectors generally need to issue a lot of new stock to fuel that growth. This leads to more and more capital being poured into these sectors, which can dilute capital holders and decrease returns. Philip Morris produced the highest return on the S&P 500 from 1957 to 2012, and did so despite a large drop in the S&P 500 since 1957.
In 1957, almost half of American adults were smokers, but in 2012 it was less than twenty percent. Certainly, you would think that this is bad for a leading tobacco company; however, producing the return is remarkable. The reason for this is that Philip Morris is a company with pricing power; they can raise prices easily, and there is no chance of new competition from a new tobacco company.
This meant little capital entering the sector. Barriers to entry were very high, and valuations remained largely reasonable. Philip Morris's average annual return from 1957 to 2012 was 19.50 and seven percent. Lesson number three: the importance of going global. According to the book, the United States markets constitute less than half of the world's total net worth.
This is because they restricted themselves to one country when you can invest worldwide. Some of the best companies, for example, are Unilever and Nestlé. According to the book " Total Return in Dollars in Several Developed Countries," Sanofi has seven companies outside the United States. The book showed that returns from 1900 to 2012 were higher in Sweden, Australia, and South Africa than in the United States, while other countries like Denmark, New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland had returns very close to those of the United States during that 112-year period.
The book states that foreign markets have never been so accessible to domestic investors and opens up enormous opportunities. There is no need to only analyze local opportunities. Lesson number 4: knowing where shareholder value comes from and how to outperform the market. The book dedicates an entire chapter to the source of shareholder value, where long-term returns will come from, and how returns are generated.
The value of current and future dividends is key to evaluating stocks. This doesn't mean that if a company does n't pay dividends it shouldn't have value; what matters is a company's ability to pay dividends. For example, Blackshire Hathaway is famous for not paying dividends since 1968, but its ability to...
Paying dividends has increased enormously since then, so the company is much more highly valued. Understanding the sources of shareholder value helps you in your ability to evaluate stocks and understand how a company's shares will add future value for you. Lesson number 5: The importance of behavioral finance and investment psychology.
The stock market can be a very dangerous place. The book has a chapter on behavioral finance, and you can avoid the stock market. It fell almost ninety percent between 1929 and 1932. In 1973/74, the UK market fell almost 75 percent. But despite these huge falls, the 20th century was wonderful for stock market returns, and it's important that you understand that the market will be volatile.
If you invest with a long-term focus, it's inevitable that you will see big drops, scary news, overconfidence, and bubbles. Your job is to try to recognize these risks and avoid the temptation to buy stocks that won't make sense in the long run. Of course, it's much easier said than done, and it's always obvious looking at the past.
Ideally, you should focus on good companies that have good fundamentals. If you have consistent profits and don't want to spend a lot of time studying the market and opportunities, consistent purchases of the index through STF should serve you well for long periods of time. If you liked the video, consider subscribing and sharing it with anyone you think will enjoy it. I'll leave it at that and see you in the next video.
Comments 0