What I think of the $MO chart 🚬(and $PM $DIS $NVDA $TGT)

요약 보기

결론: 알트리아(MO)는 하락 추세와 약세 신호로 당분간 돈이 묶이는 종목이며, 배당률 7%는 주가 하락 위험의 신호로 본다. 차트 분석: MO는 5년간 고점을 계속 낮추는 하락 추세이며, 최근 합병 뉴스에 급등했다가 거래량 6천만 주와 함께 큰 음봉으로 밀려 약세로 해석된다. 알트리아 전망: 45달러 부근에서 향후 1~2년 내 25달러 수준까지 하락 가능성을 언급했다. 배당 리스크: 배당수익률 7%는 과거 대비 이례적으로 높고, 주가 하락 시 배당 손실이 더 클 수 있다고 경고했다. 필립모리스인터내셔널(PM): 하락 추세이며 뉴스 직후 하락했고, 알트리아 합병 시 실적 부담이 될 수 있다고 봤다. 흡연 산업 전망: 담배·씹는담배·전자담배 전반에 대한 규제와 반감이 커져 장기적으로 좋은 투자처가 아니라고 평가했다. 반전 조건: MO는 58달러 상향 돌파 또는 200일 이동평균선 위로 완만하게 상승 전환 시 관심을 보이겠다고 했다. 엔비디아(NVDA): 200일선 아래에서 횡보하며 상방 전환 조짐이 보이고, 200~225달러 재상승 가능성을 언급했다. 타깃(TGT): 수년간 박스권을 돌파한 긍정적 차트로 평가했으며, 신임 경영진의 온라인 전략 변화도 긍정 요인으로 꼽았다. 디즈니(DIS): 거래량을 동반해 사상 최고가를 돌파한 강세 차트로 평가했다. 출연자 전망 요약: 알트리아와 필립모리스는 약세·비추천, 타깃·디즈니·엔비디아는 긍정적 차트로 평가했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hey everyone this is green spy trades with a quick video in response to a viewer request so somebody asked me what I thought about the Philip Morris chart well actually the altria group chart which is the u.s. division of the cigarette maker for Marlboro cigarettes and various other brands and other tobacco products for many years this was a good stock to have in your portfolio it paid a reliable dividend and previous generations of people I'm talking like way back in the 70s 60s maybe even 80s it was it made some people quite rich actually but this view our wanting to know what I thought about the chart as it looks today so let's have a look here so first thing that I usually do when I look at a stock chart is I look at what it's been doing over a long period of time over the last five years or so as you can see here a kind of peaked here at 77 and since then it's been kind of in a downtrend you can see there's a it tries to make another high but it's a lower high and then it makes another big lower high here on the chart at towards the end of last year and then earlier this year it tries to rally again and then pulls back some that's actually a quite bearish action usually when I want to buy a stock it's it's going into new highs and it's going in an upward trend so I'm kind of a momentum type of stock investor or stock swing trader but recently there's been some news where they're talking about re merging with Philip Morris company which is the international division for the cigarette maker because about ten years ago they split up and broke up into two separate companies an international division and a as division so as that news came out you got this big red candle right here a few days ago with a big spike in volume with about 60 million shares are so traded that was significant but what's interesting about this is that you had the rally the stock pop and then it smacked right back down that's why you get that big red candle here at the end this is a very bearish sign because it indicates that the stock popped on the news people thought would be positive but the price got overwhelmed by sellers saying that oh look we're up like you know 7% or so from where we were yesterday I won out so a lot of people who were holding onto these shares looked at this as a selling opportunity and they smacked it right back down so that tells you that a lot of people holding the stock right now aren't very confident and the people who are nervous are outweighing the people who are holding onto this who wanna hold on to the stock for the long term or or want to get in and buy it and that's not very good if you want to get a return anytime soon at best I think this is going to be a dead money stock where it's just going to be sitting there and it's probably not going to go any place or worse it you know this thing right now it's at 45 you could see it back down and like the twenty five dollars or so in another year or two it does pay a seven percent dividend yield now and historically this has been always been a good dividend stock but usually the dividend has been that high you know usually it offers a dividend about 4% or 5% but usually when you see a stock that did pay a good dividend the dividend yield rises it's going to keep rising for and a lot of that is because people are anticipating the company having trouble and cutting the dividend in the future so so there's a lot of risk in having that you know or you could be having a stock holding onto the stock that's yielding 7% and then what happens if you lose 7% on the price or 14% or 20% well there goes your dividend so it's not exactly a really good deal every time you see a stock that has such a high dividend yield even if it's been a good dividend yielding stock in the past there are usually a reason that you're suddenly getting a premium on the yield so let's go take a look at the Philip Morris International stock chart as you can see here also in a downtrend there's just not a lot to like about this chart you see that it also kind of smacked down here this one actually seemed to have dropped on the news from where it was before probably because the the US division isn't doing too good if they emerge the companies then that could probably weigh down the performance of the international stocks but fundamentally I don't think smoking is going to be a very good place to be going in the future because you know in the United States and internationally we're much more aware of the dangers of smoking tobacco in chewing tobacco and even vaping products are coming under scrutiny nowadays there's just a lot of resistance against this type of product so fundamentally I'm not very impressed looking at the charts on that very impressed so what would it take to change my mind on a stock chart like p.m.

02. or Altria well what I would rather see is a candle like this with a volume spike but instead of getting Smackdown going the other way and breaking the strength of the lower high so a positive sign would be is if you see on volume it breaking above the most recent lower high so above this 58 level but then again you know this thing could continue to trend lower in the lower high might be set you know it might come back and rally up to like 54 and then come back down in that case then 54 would be the lower high that I want to see it break another thing that could happen is I would want to see this see this blue line here that's the 200-day moving average and that's a pretty good trend indicator if this flattens out and and then it starts curling around and going above the 200-day Lee moving average then it would be of more interest to me here's an example of what that looks like so we have this Nvidia chart and it wasn't a strong uptrend it's it's a little bit different from from Philip Morris and that it's just gotten knocked down and it's been a shorter time horizon so this move may not be as powerful but see how it is this is kind of flattening out a little bit and then it's it's tightening up here and it it's kind of after being below the 200-day moving average for a long time it's it's starting to play around with it and you know it if it continues to do this there's a good chance that you'll see it rip up to about 200 or or 225 again so let me show you a chart that I really like which is a positive chart is target and this one has my attention it's a very interesting breakout so what you have here is for multiple years it's been stuck in this trading range it couldn't get above like this a 5 sort of air here and kind of like the the alt restock it was trending kind of lower here for a little bit but look what you got you got a reversal here where it did do that break but it did break the 200-day trend and so this was a decent rally that you probably could have made some money on but more importantly what I really like to see is see how we have this volume spike here and then it blasted into this completely new territory where the stocks never been before that is a very good technical set up and on top of that the company itself is kind of changing their strategy in the way they approach their online sales or doing some new things I believe they have some relatively new management that's implementing this new strategy and new plan so those are all good signs that that are generally positive for going along with the stock another example of a good breakout is Disney so what you have here is on volume C 60 million shares spike where it's going into a new all-time high after being in a trading range for many years on top of that you also have an uptrend where it was forming higher lows it couldn't break the resistance but it kind of that kind of coiled up the tension there and then now the the buyers of the stock are overwhelming the sellers and they're buying at higher and higher prices so that's a little bit of technical analysis for today I hope you enjoyed it and feel free to comment please like my channel and subscribe if you want to see more see you next time