저자: PhilKnirck · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인·알트코인은 버블 구간이지만 상승장은 아직 끝나지 않았을 수 있어, 단기 조정 대비 일부 매도·재진입 전략을 고려하라는 입장. 시장 현황: 2017년 5월 1일 기준 비트코인 약 1460달러, 이더리움 약 85달러로 사상 최고가 부근. 알트코인 시장 거래대금 급증, 거래량도 여전히 높음. 알트코인 버블 판단: 알트코인 시총 차트가 하키스틱 형태로 상승해 버블 가능성 제기. 다만 거래량이 줄지 않아 에너지는 남아 있다고 봄. 비트코인 도미넌스: 60% 아래로 하락 후 재반등. 알트코인 시장 대비 비트코인 강세 전환 가능성 언급. 전체 시총: 최근 하키스틱 형태가 나타나 버블 영역 진입 가능성. 다만 2013년 가격 수준과 비교하면 아직 과열은 아니라고 봄. 비트코인 전망: 단기적으로는 전체 시장 하락 가능성을 언급하지만, 장기적으로 상승 여력 있다고 봄. 비트코인 대 이더리움 주도권 변화 여부는 불확실. 이더리움 분석: 연초 약 10달러에서 50달러까지 급등 후 횡보, 최근 70~80달러로 재급등. 화자는 일부(약 10%) 매도. 단기 조정 후 85달러 돌파 시 100~150달러 가능성 언급. 비트코인 기술적 분석: 상승 채널 이탈 후 저항선 근처. 단기 매도 후 상승 추세선 부근 재매수 고려. 2000달러(8월) 또는 2~1만 달러(연내) 예측 언급되며 외부 전문가 전망도 소개. 세금 및 전략: 미국에서는 1년 내 단기 매매 차익이 일반소득세 대상이라 매매 불리, 장기 보유 시 최대 15% 세율. 세금이 수익을 잠식하므로 장기 보유 선호. 리스크 및 조언: 지수적 상승장에서 최고의 날을 놓치는 것이 가장 큰 손실이며, 매매로 시장을 이기기는 매우 어렵다고 강조. 시장 이탈보다 보유가 유리할 수 있다는 입장.
다듬은 글
foreign what's up everybody and thank you for tuning in I'm so happy you are here and let's take a look at the markets today right now it is the 1st of May and you can see it's a little bit red but if you've really looked at the prices the Bitcoin price is practically at an all-time high it was at 1460 today on gdax ethereum was at 85 today at gdocs and these these prices are just through the roof and everything is at all-time highs there's very little exceptions almost of coins that are not trading very high or very close to their all-time high so today I want to look at the market and figure out um how to deal with these prices in these all-time highs I hope that you've been able to be in this market and write out this Market so the first thing I want to take a look at is the overall mock Market altogether now this chart here the combined altcoin Market has shown us a little bit of a hockey stick so it I'm pretty sure that we are basically in an altcoin Bubble at this point in time and the reason why I think that is because we see this kind of hockey stick type of uptrend now I already thought that we were in a bubble when the price was back here but we just had another boom now I'm not sure that we're at the end of this bubble often these bubbles happen in kind of two three runs and maybe we've just gone through the second and run and maybe there's going to be a third run but I would not be surprised um if you know this is not going to go on for the rest um of the year or for the rest of Eternity eventually it's gonna have to come down if we take a look at these Market the altcoin market we see how the market has increased dramatically in terms of its 24-hour volume so the amount of money that is being traded every day in these outcome markets has exploded one thing that is very very encouraging is that these volumes are not decreasing they're still pretty damn High including today it almost looks like we're very close to these um very high points that we see here so this shows us there's still a lot of energy in the market so I personally do not think that this um Bubble is over but I do think that we're very clearly in a bubble another thing interesting to look at is the market capitalization we've seen this trend of uh Bitcoin losing its dominance right now at 60 percent uh yesterday it was the first time when we were under 60 now Bitcoin is rising uh today and the rest of the market is going a little bit down including ethereum ethereum had this great run a lot of this here is driven by ethereum um so this is interesting and the question here is when it comes to the dominance of Bitcoin is is this going to turn around we should kind of if we look at the strength we should expect that Bitcoin is going to explode in the coming weeks or months um at the expense of the altcoin market uh we'll see if that all will happen now in addition to that I want to take a look at the total market capitalization so this is the entire crypto Market this is a very interesting chart to look at because until very recently this chart did not seem entirely crazy did not seem too bubbly looked more like a very very healthy Bull Run but now we see kind of this hockey stick forming here so now we're I think maybe approaching bubble territory soon if especially if this keeps on going higher so this will be very very interesting to see also if we take a look at this entire Market um we're still not that insanely high if we compare the values from today to the 2013 um levels I talked to a friend today you know and I basically told them I don't think this bull rally is over because look at where Bitcoin is it's basically at the same price where it was in 2013 I personally think that Bitcoin has has a way to explode however I don't think that this will happen in the very short term I really think that in the very near future the entire Market is coming down however overall I think we are still in a bull run and I think this overall market bubble that we are in is not done yet and especially Bitcoin I think has a way to grow it will also be interesting to see if Bitcoin is going to explode or if ethereum is going to take over Bitcoin so there's a lot of question marks in this market um but right now I think it is exciting to be in this market now granted everything I say I might just be high on these uh gains that I've had in the last couple of months so be very careful these are just kind of my thoughts my opinion how I see the market at this point in time so now I want to go and talk about why I believe that the market um maybe going down in the very short term so I want to start with um ethereum price kind of medium uh long medium term kind of view on this market so we see here how at the beginning of the year ethereum was trading around 10 then had this explosion up to 50 and then had kind of the sideways movement I was basically expecting your theorem to come correct a little bit but that did not happen I was maybe thinking it would come here at 2 30 that did not happen ethereum had the site Trend and now just the last couple of days exploded all the way to 70 and 80 dollars now I actually sold ethereum right here up here I think this was maybe a mistake I really should have looked at this long-term Trend and anticipated that we uh will hit these kind of eighty dollars um but I've sold a little bit of my ethereum stash now granted I did this primarily because I am going to need a little bit of cash in the near-term future so I just kind of liquidated uh about 10 of my ethereum Holdings now what I do expect to happen in the very near future because we've just bumped against this trend line here I think the price is going to come down and then it will be very interesting to see if we're going to hold this uptrend that has formed I think this may be a pretty strong uptrend and because I think generally the market is is doing pretty well and has a lot of energy still I don't think this bubble is going to crash just yet but we never know I think it could very well happen I just believe that this part is more likely so I think then the market could go back up however if we really look at how ethereum has behaved in the past it never has done it so it never went up down up down up down what ethereum always has done is find some kind of stable price uh break out of that and then have kind of a side movement and then break out of this this also happened here you can see this it basically went against this 55 type of uh price um and and then bounced against that price started to build an uptrend and then break out of this 55 and then it just exploded up to the next high similar to what we did here from kind of 10 going to 50.
now if we look at the very long-term trend of ethereum we can see a similar pattern uh we we came out at like four dollars and Consolidated around one dollar one to two dollar and had kind of the sight words movement here around kind of this one to two dollar Mark then exploded up to kind of ten dollars and then moved between kind of eight and fifteen dollars in a site movement granted there was this uh this blip that happened uh with the Dow but essentially we've had a very very long ten dollar type of site Trend that could not really be disturbed not by all the attacks that can happen on ethereum not by the Dao I mean granted if we zoom into this in it might look like ethereum lost like half its price from the 21 all the way to eight but to me what is really kind of the key thing is that we were kind of bouncing around the ten dollar Ikea and then we broke out of this right here and then exploded towards 50 and then we just did the same thing just in a very very compressed prime time frame if we compare this pattern uh to what happened previously and in the beginning so we've had this pattern basically happen three times so because of that I could very well see maybe a side movement here so if that side movements happen watch out when we basically get above 85 that may then trigger a new explosion towards 100 maybe to towards 150 or 120 who the heck knows um yeah so this is very very exciting for ethereum but I do think it's a good time to sell right now just to maybe catch a lower price here at 66 or 65 or something like this but that may also not happen um and we may just have kind of a side movement so also look out for that when you look at the ethereum price now if we take a look at Bitcoin Bitcoin is very interesting we have had more of these ups and downs and ups and downs in Bitcoin itself kind of working Within These Trend channels now the trend channels are kind of uh hard to draw they they're not actually that consistent so for instance if we just look at this uh this uptrend Channel that I drew here we already broke out of this but also it this we're not done here with this candle so we might actually come back and stay within this guy but there's also another kind of up limit or trend line forming here between the last two highs yeah we could also draw them uh further down here to to to these highs closer in the beginning and you can see we could come up even with uh yet another uh Trend Channel um which again it would look like we've broken through these but we can also see that they don't hold all too well giving that these guys are kinda there but not too close so I don't I'm I don't really know exactly where these upper limits are however I do think that we're probably close to some of these up limits so I also think right now that it would be a good time to sell Bitcoins um Let It crash down to this uptrend here if my feeling is right that we're still kind of bullish um we then may go up here now one thing that's interesting is is this little error that I put here um tone vase basically said he was in Philadelphia at a Bitcoin meeting I saw him in person it was really cool to talk to him tone race basically expects that in August of this year will reach two thousand dollars I've also made this prediction that we could reach two to ten thousand dollars this year so if any of this if tones prediction is to hold true these uptrends need to be broken through there needs to be some some kind of steep rise up here so I don't know maybe uh we're not going to be this fast maybe we will be this fast I really have no idea um just looking at this price and talking with other friends about this Market um what I would uh think is probably a good idea right now is to sell some Bitcoin and then try to find um enter points a little further down here if you don't like this training stuff it may make sense to just stay in the market as well now generally when you're trading also take a look what country you're in and if you have a capital gains tax I for instance live in the United States I'm actually not going to do this sort of trading the reason is I would have to pay taxes so if I do a a sell here and um and then I make a trade that I make money on if I buy and sell within one year this is basically regular income that I have to take regular income tax um on which in the United States ranges from basically uh 10 10 or something I don't actually know the lower bounds but the the top uh bracket is at 40 plus state tax so some people for instance in Pennsylvania where I live if you live in the city of Philadelphia and you're in the top bracket you may pay up to 50 percent or 47 in taxes so because of this true when you're in a situation like this trading might not make sense and because of my tax situation I actually do not trade I just um don't do that however speaking with other peoples that are investors that live in countries for instance like Panama or Switzerland where there's no capital gains tax trading might make a lot of sense so I've just given you reasons to maybe sell Bitcoin any theorem but there is always also reasons not to sell so I've already talked a little bit about taxes most people have a 20 to 30 percent tax rate and so you know if you're making 20 to 30 percent uh profits by basically selling now and and buying on a dip well the first 20 to 30 percent they're not no good to you so the market has to crash like 60 or 50 in order for that to make sense every time you make a trade you take all the risk if you win you get taxed if you don't win the government doesn't give you any money so these are basically fees that take away from your profit and they are compounding so if you have these taxes you got to figure out a way um to avoid them the only solution that I personally have or for me personally is to just kind of hold things long that way the max tax rate can be 15 and then I can just let it run and when I think it's over or like the particular thing that I'm investing into um is is done sell then and hopefully that takes longer than a year that is a very good reason not to sell is we have to be in the market on the best days or on the biggest parts of the bubble because these growth is exponential so if you think about these markets usually move in percentages so we've seen recently that these coins they often move in kind of 20 to 50 percent uh you know upswings and so think about if this happens three to five times in a row then really where you make the money is the very last time this happens so getting out of the market and then not being in the market when the best days happen or when the best moves happen is the most expensive thing and so we as humans we have a hard time understanding exponential growth so it's really important to be logical about these things so it can be extremely expensive not to be in the market when the market go up so you need to make sure that you get into these things early and then just let them run and um and hope to be in there at the end another thing is that trading is really really hard and beating the market is much much harder so we have like all these stories where like there's been these you know experiments and they figured out that like a monkey trades just as well as like a human I don't really believe in these things but what I do believe in is that training is really really difficult and it's not so simple to trade effectively so if you're not confident that you can absolutely kill and beat the market the simplest way is to just um not do it and just go into the market not being in the market is usually the most expensive thing foreign thank you
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