Jeremy Siegel: This economy can take a rise in short term interest rates

요약 보기

Siegel은 30년물 TIPS 실질수익률이 3.35%로 주식 실질수익률(P/E 20 기준 약 5%)과의 마진이 줄고 있다고 봄. 금리 인상이 이익률이 낮은 비기술 부문에 타격을 주며, 기술주는 높은 마진 덕에 버텨왔다고 진단. 연준이 연내 추가 인상이 필요하다고 보고, 경제가 높은 단기금리를 견딜 수 있다는 근거로 선물시장과 경제 강도, 장단기 금리 구조를 제시.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. The crucial moment begins with some rate cuts as the 10-year bond yield retreats from some 24-year highs. This confirms your performance 60 minutes before the end of the trading session. There is a certain tug of war going on here between rate cuts and oil, which is stubbornly holding on to some headlines regarding additional assets potentially available to the Gulf countries.

02. And that brings us to our conversation on the record this afternoon, about how you can position your portfolio as we begin the final quarter of the year. Let's invite Jeremy Siegel, . Professor, nice to see you. Thank you for joining us. Nice to see you, Carol. Did you get a hint today of the start of a bond rally?

03. Well, I'm relieved it happened because I really couldn't believe the returns I was seeing. Um, you know, I especially like looking at the yield on inflation-protected Treasury bonds, and, uh, the 30- year bond is up to three and a half percent, 3.35%, and I don't think we've seen that in, you know, 20, 25, 30 years.

04. Um, now, you know, when you're getting almost three and a half percent after inflation, a stock market with a P/E ratio of 20 gives you 5% after inflation. So, there is still a good margin there, but that margin is shrinking. Um, and I think one of the reasons why tech companies have held up so well is because look at the margins of tech companies, Mag 7, you know, they're 50%, 60%, 70%.

05. So, you know, there's a rise in interest rates. But, you know, outside of the tech sector and in the real world, when they're operating at 7 8 9 10% margins, you start to raise those interest rates and you really cut into our profits. So, you know, we all thought there was a great rotation in the first half of this year, and certainly it looked like it was starting to move, but I think this interest rate hike really, you know, put some dent in that.

06. Right. Are optimists right to take heart from Jefferson's words today that more time is needed? Something like what we got from Waller? Yeah, I mean, you know, obviously Waller is in a really tough situation going into the next meeting. There are 6 days left until the midterm elections. Honestly, I think we need two more raises this year, but he could have conveyed, "I think two more." But I think he can tell the committee, "Listen, guys, you know, if you wait, let's maybe do 50 basis points in December." Let's not make politics out of this by doing this 6 days before the midterm elections.

07. Um, you know, what difference does, you know, a month or two make in 20-25 basis points? So, I think he has another, you know, juggling job. Um, but I mean, when you look at the futures market and something else, which is the strength of the economy, um, and uh, and the rising yields just tell you that, you know, this economy can withstand higher short-term interest rates.

08. Yes. Yes. Good article by Greg Ip in the Journal today where he argues that nominal GDP of 6-3 regresses to 10- year GDP of 5 and a half without any problems. Yes. Yes. And we usually think of the 10- year as 80 basis points above the Fed funds. Well, you know, if you're at 5, 5, 1/4, 5, 1/2, that's a lot higher than we are now, in terms of normal slope.

09. I mean, some people have said that the two-year term is a good indicator of where the Fed funds should be, and, wow, I mean, that's moving too. So , on all these term structure issues , it suggests higher interest rates. Yes.