Fisher Investments’ Ken Fisher Gives His Thoughts on Gold’s Recent Rise

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금 가격은 단기적으로 예측하기 매우 어렵다는 결론이다. 금 가격 예측 경험 켄 피셔는 50년 넘게 업계에 있으면서 금 가격을 여러 번 잘못 예측해 이후로는 금을 예측하지 않기로 했다고 말한다. 최근 금 상승 배경 최근 금이 오른 이유는 사람들이 암호화폐가 기대만큼 금의 대체재가 아니라는 것을 깨닫고 금으로 자금이 이동하면서, 인플레이션 우려 속에 금을 인플레이션 헤지로 보는 시각이 커졌기 때문이라고 설명한다. 금의 역사적 흐름 금은 1980년에 고점을 찍은 뒤 31년 만에 그 수준을 회복했다. 그 기간에도 3~5년 주기로 50% 오르고 50% 내리는 변동이 반복됐다. 2011년 유로존 붕괴 우려 때 급등했지만 이후 약 4년간 40% 하락했다. 현재는 2011년 수준보다 약 13~14% 높다. 금의 인플레이션 헤지 효과 과거 수십 년간 금은 인플레이션 헤지 역할을 제대로 하지 못했다고 평가한다. 장기 수익률과 변동성 장기적으로 금의 수익률은 플러스이지만 장기 미국채보다 약간 낮고, 변동성은 채권보다 높다. 주식 대비로는 수익률이 약 절반 수준인데 변동성은 주식보다 뚜렷이 높다. 금 총수익의 대부분은 전체 기간의 약 15%에서 발생한다. 결론과 리스크 금이 앞으로 어디로 갈지 안다면 조언이 필요 없을 것이라며, 금은 원자재이므로 가격 변동성이 크다는 점을 강조한다. 현재 금 움직임은 원자재처럼 변동성이 크다는 것이 그의 의견이다.

다듬은 글

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01. you know it's funny strange funny humorous sometimes funny sad but gold chirates around sometimes for this sometimes for that and I'll tell you people ask me what I think will happen with gold what do I think of gold and you know I'll say when I was young a long time ago having been in this industry over half a century I forecast gold wrong so many times I made a solemn vow I never forecasted again in the name of good luck and so far I've had some pretty good luck and so I keep not forecasting gold the fact is goals risen lately Gold's a commodity it has some minor industrial usages it's got the jewelry function it's a commodity it doesn't have as much usage as copper has but you know it's a lot less plentiful doesn't have as much uses oil has but it's a lot less plentiful we get a lot more oil in the future we don't get a lot more gold people sometimes think goals and inflation hedge they sometimes think it's a flight to safety mechanism sometimes they think it's this sometimes they think it's that here's what I can tell you I know predicting it's really tough what has its price movement of late been I think it's partly been driven by the fact that people have come to realize that crypto isn't what they thought it was and a lot of people thought crypto was maybe a gold replacement as they come to realize crypto is not a gold replacement more movement into gold in parallel at a time when we've had a lot of fear of inflation and people have put the mantle on gold which they do off and on over time that it's an inflation Hedge let me ask a couple points gold hit a peak in 1980.

02. it didn't get back to that level for 31 years in the 31 years it had recurring periods of three four five years where it would go up 50 down 50 percent up 50 down 50 percent and I went through the roof uh in 2011 as you got into the period pre-pricing the fear that the Euro would blow apart tied to the concerns you remember about the pigs Portugal Italy Greece Spain and would they be able to sustain and stay inside the euro currency as they were having problems from supposed inability to handle their governmental debts now the fact is that then after that goal fell for about four years by 40 percent since then it's risen and is now about 13 14 above it 2011 level 12 years later let me say that differently there's nothing wrong with gold it's a commodity as volatile the fact is sometimes people think of it this way sometimes they think of it that way lately they've been thinking maybe it's an inflation hedge mind you over all those decades I just talked to you about it was always inflation you follow that and it didn't hedge that inflation very well number two what can we say about it in the very long term then it has a return that's positive a little bit lower long-term average than let's say long-term U.S treasury bonds with a higher volatility than bonds that doesn't shock you very much because bonds are expected to have fairly low volatility mind you on the other hand over those same time periods very long time periods it has about half the return of stocks with an actually markedly higher volatility than stocks that's the point that surprises people lower return higher volatility gold gets about 80 percent of its maybe 85 percent of its long-term total return from about 15 percent of time periods where a stock drives about two-thirds of the time bonds rise a little more than that if you can predict gold you need no advice from me whatsoever why is gold and strong lately well partly because from 2011 to 2015 it was very weak makes perfect sense it should rise after that on the other hand right now people think of it as an inflation hitch I want to point out it's a commodity Commodities tend to be volatile in price there's nothing wrong with that but the reality is if you think you know where Gold's going from here you might be right you might be wrong but there's nothing I can do to help you my opinion about what's going on lately is it's been volatile like Commodities will b