저자: DavidHong · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 넥스스타 미디어 그룹은 전통 TV 쇠퇴 속에서도 재송신 수익·정치광고 덕분에 저평가된 괜찮은 사업으로, 주가 상승 여지가 있다고 본다. 사업 구조: 199개 방송국을 보유한 미국 주요 지상파 방송 그룹이며, 수익원은 광고·재송신(케이블/위성 수수료)·디지털·정치광고 4가지다. 재송신 수익이 전체의 52%로 늘고 있다. 정치광고: 2024년 미국 정치광고 지출이 116억 달러로 예상되며, 최대 지역 방송 그룹으로서 상당한 몫을 가져갈 수 있어 단기 실적 호재다. 재무: 매출·영업이익은 장기 성장했고 영업이익률은 양호하다. ROIC 추세도 좋고 최근 평균 ROE는 20% 이상이다. 현금흐름은 안정적으로 증가한다. 리스크: 순부채 약 70억 달러의 높은 레버리지, 금리 상승으로 유효금리가 3.6%에서 6% 이상으로 올라 이자보상배율이 하락 중이다. 3분기 매출은 전년 대비 6.7% 감소했고 광고·정치광고도 줄었다. DirecTV 협상 블랙아웃이 재송신 매출에 영향을 줬다. 밸류에이션: EV/EBITDA 7.2배로 10년 평균을 크게 하회한다. 배당수익률은 약 3.5%이며 2013년 이후 연평균 약 25% 배당 성장, 이익의 약 20%만 배당에 쓰여 지속 가능하다. 5년 뒤 투자자 기준 배당수익률은 약 10%에 이를 수 있다. 자사주 매입: 배당의 4배 이상을 자사주 매입에 쓰며 최근 5년간 주식수가 20% 이상 줄었다. 기대수익률은 연 약 17%, 자사주 매입 반영 시 25% 이상으로 추정한다. 결론적으로 마이클 버리가 매수한 것과 같은 맥락에서 긍정적으로 보며, 단기 과제에도 2024 대선과 공격적 자사주 매입이 호재가 될 수 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
Michael bur has been buying nextar for two quarters in a row so today we will look at the five Bull and three bare thesis on this company to figure out why first let's start with what nextar is nextar Media Group is a major player in the American Media landscape owning and operating 199 television stations across the United States as we can see here nexar reaches the largest number of US population through its stations affiliated with major Network like CBS FOX NBC and ABC nextar provides local news sports coverage and community events to millions of people through many years of cord cutting traditional TV business overall is definitely shrinking and this is an obvious bare thesis on nextstar however if we look at the detail some players in the industry are still thriving because people still love to watch their contents for example local news which nextar has the number one position in is a part of media landscape that is maintaining strength despite the overall industry shift nextar leverages this by providing highquality news programming extensive local sports coverage and engaging community events keeping viewers connected to their local communities in addition nexar has invested in his digital platforms like websites mobile apps and streaming services now let's dig deeper into nexstar's business which has four revenue streams that might tell you that this company has a better business than what one would expect from an average TV company first there is advertising Revenue this used to be about 90% of nexstar's Revenue more than a decade ago however rather than just relying on the TV advertising the management successfully Diversified away from it second as we can see here retransmission Revenue which is the distribution fees paid by cable and satellite providers to carry nextar contents on their platform has been growing at a steep rate as we can see here in the most recent Revenue breakdown the distribution Revenue now takes up 52% of total revenue and growing versus the 35% advertising Revenue shown in Gray so the large portion of stable cash flow from the distribution business which is also growing can be considered a reason to invest in nextar the third Revenue stream is digital revenues which contains strategic investments in online platforms like the hill and other mobile apps this portion is small at 8% but is growing last but not least is the political advertising revenue and as the politics in the US is becoming more and more divisive the upcoming 2024 election cycle is expected to be a boon for nextstar political advertising spending is projected to reach 11.6 billion in 2024 and nextar is poised to capture a significant share of this spending as the largest local broadcast TV group so this short-term boost in the company profit in 2024 can be the second Bull thesis on nextar nextar in financial numbers here are the three charts that show nexstar's Financial strengths this graph shows that the company's revenue and operating profit are growing over the two decades during which TVs are supposed to be dead but because this company grew through multiple m&as the total revenue and profit numbers might be misleading but the purple line which shows operating margin proves again that this company has decent economics in addition the long-term roic Trend also shows that this company has good economics and I didn't show the Roe graphs because after tax numbers it shows more fluctuations but its recent average is above 20% Which is very good also and lastly the company generates stable and growing cash flow there is year-to-year fluctuations because the political advertising cycle has twoyear Cycles with presid presidential elections every 4 years but the upward trend is quite evident so high roic and strong cash flow generation can be the third bull thesis on this company however not all is Rosie at nexar and One Financial issue is its debt loaded balance sheet as we can see here nexar borrowed much money to acquire assets and grow and currently sits on about $7 billion of net debt and even though it is paying down the debt recent interest rate increase is hurting the company as we can see here the effective interest rate has risen from 3 6% to more than 6% in less than 2 years recently and this could go up a bit higher as the effect of higher rates roll in in the fourth quarter and although the management doesn't seem so worried at the moment the falling interest coverage ratio like this is definitely something investors should keep an eye on and this looks like the second bare thesis on next start and unfortunately we are not finished with the bad news here are some key takeaways from the third quarter result total revenue was $1.13 billion which is down 6.7% year-over-year breaking down this in the four segments distribution Revenue was down 6.7% political advertising also decreased although as we explained before this is due to the political cycle where the odd number years have lower number third the core television advertising declined 2.3% and lastly the digital Revenue was 99 million this is up 15.1% year-over-year but is still very small porun and the acquisition of CW contributed here and the increased interest expense also negatively impacted the bottom line in the third quarter some bright spot was that the fall of distribution Revenue was due to the blackout period during the negotiation period with Direct TV and without this the segment Revenue would have increased 88.8% but even then the disappointing short-term result can be considered the third bare thesis on nextar another note on the short-term Prospect the nexstar management claimed that the Disney Charter agreement which was announced in mid-september M however this is just a projection and there is no evidence that this deal is helping nexar yet we will wait to see how the shift in media deals impact nexar considering everything we talked about so far nextar seems to be a good business despite some shortcomings and where does this company currently trade at first looking at the EV to eida multiple its current 7.2 times indicate that it's trading well below 10-year average and the conclusion is quite similar when we look at the EV to free cash flow multiple here if we look at his dividend the dividend yield is just about 3.5% which is not terribly interesting especially in this higher interest rate World however as this dividend graph shows the dividend growth is quite attractive since starting its dividend in 2013 the company has grown its dividend by an annualized rate of nearly 25% despite such growth its dividend still only eats up about 20% of earnings or about 177% of operating cash flow so it can probably keep up with this growth rate in near future and if that's the case for the the next 5 years then the dividend yield for the investor will reach about 10% so the low valuation of the company which can be seen through the multiples it trades at and also through dividend yield can be considered the fourth bull thesis but that is not all with nexar because after spending about 20% of its free cash flow on dividends the company is spending more than four times of that amount on its share BuyBacks and thanks to the low stock price the company's number of shares have decreased by more than 20% in the past 5 years if we calculate the expected return in purchasing next star stock it comes out to be about 17% per year but if we include the share buyback assumption the expected IR increases to more than 25% so I believe the Management's very smart Capital allocation strategy which is aggressively buying back shares when the stock is trading at a low multiple could give a boost to shareholder return and this can be considered the fifth bull thesis so overall I believe Michael bu invested in nexar because it is a decent business and despite short-term challenges it has other short-term boost factors like the 2024 presidential election and aggressive BuyBacks that could result in positive result okay that's it for today and thanks for watching if you want to keep up with what super investors are doing and why please click the like button below and subscribe to the channel thanks guys oh
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