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what do we think is wrong with existing funds most existing funds are actually closet index trackers the average fund manager doesn't think that the biggest threat to their career is losing you money they think the biggest threat to their career is deviating from the index because they can't be criticized if they stick somewhere too close to the index they're too diversified basically they own too many shares now portfolio diversification is something that it clearly is a bit of benefit to investors so what do i mean by two diversified there's a man called harry markovitz who in 1952 got a nobel prize for economics for proving the benefits of portfolio diversification but you have to look carefully at what he said he didn't say that unlimited diversification was a benefit if you look at a market and this is actually the u.s market for a period of years you can see that we've measured on the vertical axis risk or the variation in a share from in terms of share price variation and you can see on the horizontal axis we've got the number of stocks and you can see from that that you can't get very much below about a 27 deviation no matter how many shares you own if you own the entire market that's about the amount of deviation that you had during the period that we're looking at in terms of the variability of the price that's if you own the entire market but look at 20 stocks you get almost all of the benefit at 20 stocks that's why we own a 20 stock portfolio because the problem is if you own the entire market there aren't thousands of good companies out there and we only want to own good companies if you are too diversified you will own a lot of things that you simply don't want to own as investments and if you own more than about 20 stocks you will owe more than is necessary to get the benefits of diversification the other thing people do is they trade too much the average mutual fund manager in the uk turns over 80 percent of your portfolio every year that means two things one they must think they've got new ideas for about eighty percent of the portfolio which would surprise me because i don't have that many good ideas in a year and the other thing is of course it incurs a cost as well as the fund management charges you're paying you more than double the cost of running your fund from the trading which they do they trade too much and the final thing i would say is performance fees if you're invested in any form of hedge fund or alternative investment strategy you may well be paying performance fees you may be paying the typical 2 and 20 performance fee 2 percent of assets and 20 of any gains what will that do to the gains on your portfolio the example i've worked out is if you'd invested with warren buffett in june 1965 when he took control of berkshire hathaway if you put a thousand dollars into berkshire hathaway shares then and you'd held them for the intervening period you would have had 45 years of over 20 per annum compounding your thousand dollars would now be worth about 4.4 million dollars which is clearly a great performance now warren buffett does the same thing as i do he basically invested the same piece of paper as you he owns berkshire hathaway shares you won't barge out away shares he doesn't charge any fund management fees but let's imagine that he charged performance fees just like a hedge fund that he charged two percent of assets and 20 of any gains of that 4.4 million that you would have made how much would be yours and how much would have accrued to him as the manager now your job this morning is to guess because what i've done on this slide is i've split out the 4.4 million between the amount that the investor would have kept and the amount of the manager would have got on that 2 and 20.
and you've got to guess which line is which the red line or the grade line who's who and the answer is you the the investor would have had the gray line you would have had about four hundred thousand dollars at this point and the fund manager would have made it away with four million dollars you should never pay performance fees even if warren buffett is your fund manager you shouldn't pay performance fees and by the way warren buffett by and large isn't your fund manager most people are going to end up performing that's what a performance fee does to the amount of the gains that you're going to get so what's wrong with existing funds as i say most of them are closet index trackers they take diversification too far farther than you need they trade too much and they charge you performance fees which take too much of your gains the bottom line is that you suffer you
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