Terry Smith Explains Investor Psychology

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결론: 투자 성과가 낮은 주된 원인은 시장이나 펀드매니저보다 투자자 자신의 잘못된 행동이라는 주장. 과거 성과 근거: 2000~2010년 영국 IMA 글로벌 성장 섹터 평균 펀드는 1000파운드를 1074파운드로 불린 수준이며, 미국 투자자들은 시장 대비 약 7% 낮은 성과를 기록했다고 제시. 성과 저하 원인: 과도한 매매, 지수 추종 편향, 높은 수수료, 나쁜 시장 타이밍. 시장 타이밍이 가능한 사람은 없으며 그것을 모르는 사람만 있다는 취지. 보이지 않는 고릴라 실험: 주의가 한 곳에 쏠리면 명백한 것도 놓친다는 비유. 포트폴리오 시뮬레이션: 주식(고변동·고수익)과 채권(저변동·저수익) 50:50으로 시작하는 30년 모의투자에서, 5년마다 점검한 그룹이 월별로 사고판 그룹보다 약 2배 수익을 냈다. 잦은 매매가 손실을 키움. 결론: 투자에서는 더 자주 볼수록 잘못할 가능성이 커지며, 가장 큰 적은 투자자 자신. 자금 유입은 시장이 오를 때 몰리고 내릴 때 빠져나가는데, 이는 정반대로 해야 하는 행동. 대상 자산 가격 방향 예측 발언: 없음.

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01. there's one other thing there's one other person who's a problem in here it's you you are in fact your own worst enemy and as you can see i've given you three bullet points on this slide if you take the investment management association's global growth sector which i take as a proxy simply because it's the one my fund is in you'll see that in the 10 years from 2000 to 2010 they managed the average fund manager there turned a thousand pounds into the principally sum of a thousand and seventy four pounds not very good eh but then if you look at the second bullet point you can see that's from a study done of us investors they're under performance that they've got which is about seven percent below market the average mutual fund investor is blamed upon the performance of the fund yes i've mentioned that the fact that people trade too much they hug the index it's based upon the fees which people charge which are too high and their own poor timing people make very poor timing decisions there are only two types of people when it comes to market timing those who can't market time and those who don't know they can't market time there is no third group basically um i mentioned at the bottom a final point which is a thing called the invisible gorilla it's a book and it mentions a a clip which you can find on youtube about the called the invisible gorilla and if you have a moment look at it it's uh it involves a competition in which you look at us a a video of a group of people half of whom have got black t-shirts and half of them have got white t-shirts and they pass a basketball between each other and your prize in the competition is one if you can count the number of passes between the white t-shirts that's all you have to do and so they pass the ball very quickly and you concentrate on the screen to get your cash prize whilst you're watching it a woman in a gorilla suit walks across the middle of the clip doing that and then you've watched the clip and people ask you how many passes between the white t-shirts and you give your answer and of course you if you've been very careful you win the prize then somebody will say what did you think about the gorilla half of you if you were watching that clip would not see the gorilla you would say what gorilla a significant percentage of the half of you wouldn't see the gorilla would claim that the clip had been doctored and that there was no gorilla in the original clip because you're focusing so much on watching those passes you don't see the obvious the book the invisible gorilla which takes that clip as the basis of its title has a a number of case studies in there but one of them is a computer simulation of investment and it's a computer simulation which simulates 30 years of investment a typical investment career and it asks you to make a selection between two portfolios the snappily name portfolio a and portfolio b you are told nothing at the outset about those two portfolios uh what you don't know because you're not told is that portfolio a is an equity portfolio it has very high returns but it's very volatile it goes up and down quite a lot over time portfolio b is a bond portfolio it has very low returns but it doesn't it's not very volatile it doesn't vary very much but you don't know that at the outset you are asked to choose how you want to divide your assets between them at the outset and then on a number of periods during the 30 years actually takes place over a day this exercise but you're given 30 years of data and all you'll get each time is the performance data that's occurred so far in the exercise and you make a decision now having read up on harry markovitz and understanding portfolio diversification sensibly what most of you would do is put your assets into those two portfolios 50 50 because you know absolutely nothing about them then the exercise begins but there's one other thing the group is divided into two the people on that side of the room are given data every five years during the computer exercise so it's a 30-year simulation at year 5 in this in the computer run they get the two portfolios performance and they're given the opportunity to change their weighting from 50 50.

02. and at year 10 and at year 15 and year 20 and year 25 that's it the people on that side of the room are given data every month on these two portfolios and if they wish they can deal and so they get a month one two three so they get over here you can make five decisions during the period if you wish you get five data points over here you can make 359 decisions every time this simulation is run the people over here who can decide every month what to do make about half the return of the people over here and make a decision every five years in investment more is less the more you look at the detail the more you're likely to get this wrong sometimes in terms of what happens every month with every squiggle the people who only look at this every five years can see that although the equity portfolio is volatile it's a wavy line it's a wavy line that over time outperforms the bomb portfolio so they're very sensible they start to concentrate their investment through their decisions on the high return portfolio the people over here who get monthly data sooner or later get a really shocking month for the equity portfolio and so they bail out at a low price then it goes back up and so they get back in at a high price then it goes back down again at some point and they bailed out a low price by the time you've been whipsawed like that two or three times most people don't have the emotional strength to stay with the high return portfolio so the last thing to say about how to perform badly is you are your own worst enemy it's not the fund manager necessarily it's your own worst enemy it's you you can see that if you look at this this is basically fund flows and you can see quite clearly a correlation between the blue bars which are the net fund flows for a period um and the and the level of the market which is the total return line which the black wavy line quite clearly people put more and more money in the more the market goes up and they take more and more money out the more the market goes down this is precisely the opposite of the way to invest you