저자: Mahn · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 생태계의 순환적 거래와 전략적 딜로 인해 칩·데이터센터·전력 수요가 여전히 강하다고 봄. TSM은 파운드리 점유율 약 60%, 실적 발표 예정이며 최근 주가 상승 후에도 밸류에이션이 매력적이라 주장. AI 버블 붕괴를 기다리는 투자자는 큰 상승을 놓칠 것이라 함. 단기 변동성은 있겠지만 2025년 내내 저점매수 심리로 본격 조정은 제한적이라 봄. 미중 무역 긴장이 변동성의 주요 요인이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
So your word of the day today is insatiable. Who's are investors insatiable? Who's insatiable right now? I think this circular AI economy and all of the recent strategic deals that have been announced relating to those large cap technology players only reiterates the insatiable demand that there is for chips, data centers, and power solutions right now.
And it just shows the interconnected nature of the AI ecosystem and how reliant these large cap tech players are upon one another to stay ahead in this AI race. All right, that leads us to your your pick for today. It's TSM. So, why TSM as opposed to other chip names out there? We obviously just got a big deal between OpenAI and Broadcom announced yesterday.
Got a report this morning about ARM and OpenAI possibly working together. Why TSM? TSM is the largest dedicated chip foundry in the world with a 60% market share. They're expected to announce earnings this Thursday. We're looking at about 257 per share according to Zach's estimates right now. Record net income this quarter.
And we also know that their stock right now is up, I don't know, about 54% year-to- date. They have a trailing 12-month dividend of around 1%. Ford P is looking pretty attractive. What's not to like about this stock right now? So, you seem to have a lot of confidence about the AI trade. We've had a lot of recent announcements and a lot of questions about it.
Profitability when it comes to Oracle despite we had a guest on that was earlier that was her pick. She actually feels very confident in the new co-CEOs. Are you worried at all just about the numbers here? We pointed out earlier this morning, OpenAI on uh expected to get about $13 billion in revenue.
These deals are hundreds of billion dollars in revenue and their ability to actually pay for each of these individual deals. Yeah. I I think for those investors who are waiting for the AI bubble to burst, if you will, are going to have to wait quite some time and they're likely to miss out on some quite some gains throughout that process.
Now, with that said, obviously there's going to be many bumps in the road along the way in this AI road, and there's likely to be more losers than winners, but where the money is being spent right now is on this arms race, and it relates to infrastructure buildouts, whether it's in the data centers or the chips.
So, the money is to be made right now in those strategic deals. Now, down the line, those strategic deals could have consequence consequences economically and in terms of control. So, you need to factor that in to your investment making decisions. All right, talk to me about the broader market. Our Jim Kramer pointed out that yesterday the leadership was in more speculative stocks.
Quantum stocks is one thing that he pointed to. Uh quantum stocks getting a boost from the JP Morgan investment in a number of critical areas including quantum stocks. Um are you concerned about the leadership that we saw yesterday after the deep selloff on Friday? I think you find that leadership coming off of big down days as the money goes back into those speculative plays.
But that doesn't mean that the MAG7 or the AI revolution isn't alive and well. We're going to learn from ASML tomorrow. the chief chief lithography maker for these chip makers. We're going to learn from TSMC on Thursday that the AI revolution is indeed alive and well, but that doesn't mean you don't look at this opportunity to diversify.
Look at the utility sector. In fact, they hold up well in the face of volatility. They pay good dividends and they become a backdoor play into the AI revolution and they're the leading sector year to date in the stock market. All right, what about the broader market going forward? uh fund strat Mark Newton out with a note yesterday talking about the market actually hitting a level of resistance when it comes to the S&P.
But then he goes on to say he has a bigger concern and he says the bigger concern is the drop off in momentum and market breath which he thinks would need to improve or uh on any push back to new highs. And he says it's right to expect the volatility might persist and expects kind of a whippy volatile market over the next month.
Do you agree with that assessment? And and then what does that mean for investors that want to put money to work? To a degree I do. I think there will be more short-term bounce of volatility ahead. We've had over 30 record closes this year on top of 57 such record closes last year. We shouldn't anticipate those pace of gains to continue.
But I think each short-term bout of volatility is going to be met by more cash coming off the sidelines as we saw on Monday. It may unfortunately go into more speculative names for those investors trying to play catch-up. But I think you're not going to see a sustained correction because you're going to see the buy the dip mentality take place over the balance of 2025.
Do trade tensions impact that buy the dip mentality? Without a doubt, I still think China remains at the the top, if you will, the main event on top of the global tariffs and trade war. And the implications of what's ultimately decided between the US and China could have an impact on both the markets and the economy.
That's why each time there's an announcement, you see this volatility short term.
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