저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 금리 상승과 공급망 차질이 시장을 주도하며, 은행·유가·마이크론·베스트바이 등을 단기 관심 종목으로 제시한다. 거시 환경: 공급망 차질과 금리 상승(10년물 약 6% 언급이 있으나 자막상 불명확)이 시장의 두 가지 핵심 테마다. 금리가 오르면 기술주는 부진하고 은행주가 상대적 수혜로 여겨진다. 은행주: 시장이 금리 상승 수혜를 당연시해 과열됐다고 봤다. 실적 발표 후 기대치가 높아 실망 가능성이 있다고 경고했고, 과거 선반영 흐름과 실적 간 괴리를 설명했다. 에너지: 원유·천연가스가 올해 9개월간 크게 올랐고 향후에도 강세 흐름이 이어질 것으로 봤다. 미국 석유 생산업체들이 주주환원을 늘린 점을 근거로 셰브론, 디본, 파이오니어 내추럴, 다이아몬드백 에너지, 코노코를 언급했다. 해외 천연가스 부족이 장기화되면 테를루리안을 투기적으로 볼 수 있다고 했다. 전기차: 테슬라 시가총액이 약 8,000억 달러로 상승 여력이 있다고 봤고, 루시드·폴스타·피스커 등 전기차 관련주를 함께 언급했다. 피스커는 상승 후에도 추가 매수 여지를 언급했다. 반도체: 마이크론이 다음날 실적을 발표하며, 실적이 좋으면 반도체 그룹 전체가 상승할 수 있다고 봤다. 다만 DRAM·플래시 등 저마진 제품 비중으로 실적이 실망스러울 수 있다는 경고도 함께 했다. AMD 외 반도체 종목은 약세라고 평가했다. 여행·레저: 코로나 정점 통과 기대로 항공·크루즈주가 상승했다. 아메리칸익스프레스는 여행과 금리 노출이 함께 있어 매수 아이디어로 언급했다. 베스트바이: 공급망 대응력과 신규 서비스를 근거로 추천했고, 델타 변이 정점 인식으로 재개방 거래가 복귀할 것이라고 봤다. 리스크: 금리 상승이 지속되면 성장주에 부담이 되며, 실적 기대치가 이미 높아 발표 후 하락 가능성이 있다.
다듬은 글
y hat are the most important stocks in this market the ones that define the moment show you where the money's going after mix day where the dow gained 71 points s p declined 0.28 nasdaq lost 0.52 notable outlier i want to explain how i choose the stocks i highlight when i come on air every morning let's walk in the street so you know what i think's really going on before the bell and then right after it you know i'm always looking for names that are both important and possibly investible for you okay the process is a complex one first i want to capture the zeitgeist there are two major themes going on right now supply chain disruption you read about that a lot right and that's including energy shortages and then the fact that interest rates are going higher they went up six percent last week that's a lot you need to know about these two themes every minute of every day if you're going to pick stocks because that's what's driving the averages i also try not to mention the same stocks that we've already been discussed here you don't want overkill i know a lot of you watch that show it also means eliminating many situations we talk about at the top of squawk on the street with interest rates going higher you know the banks are going to do well that's become a duh moment because this market isn't about being clever so people just buy the banks without question as they're supposed to be the obvious winners here bye bye bye right of course this is just a knee-jerk reaction and these are often nonsensical sure the banks should be making more money but when they actually report in two weeks their earnings numbers will have nothing to do with the current long-term interest rates the days of days this is already there's nothing to do with the quarter it's all about what happened over the last three months the banks have been a disappointment relative to their stock prices because they often run just like now on some kind of theory it has nothing to do with earnings but it's more to do with the zeitgeist okay when we get the actual numbers they could easily disappoint because expectations have already been ratcheted up now lots of people confuse these two things i want you to understand this they say we get a lot of calls like this a lot of emails a company beat the expectations why didn't the stock go higher the answer is often that the stock ran into earnings because of moves like today which are divorced from the actual reporting numbers the expectations are just what the analysts are looking for they don't necessarily represent what investors are looking for long story short i wasn't going to mention the banks on mad dash or stop trading because now they're well covered it really just doesn't do any good for me to cover them some more next up oil this one's pretty straightforward both oil and natural gas have been going nuts they've been huge winners in the first nine months of the year nothing's changed just gotten better oil just keeps going relentlessly higher why because american oil producers have finally gotten religion on spending they don't just burn all their money by endlessly drilling what they used to instead they're returning capital to you the shareholders at an impressive pace that means you might want to buy one of my favorites maybe chevron for the consistency in the dividend devin for its potentially huge variable dividend or pioneer naturals for the same reason even diamondback energy symbol fang has a new more conservative posture that includes a major return to capital i also like conoco because of that acquisition they made last week they're buying royal dutch's acreage in the permian basin at a ridiculously low price because rural dutch is basically being forced to sell it by regulators in the netherlands oh yeah and if you really believe we're looking at a long-term natural gas shortage overseas you can speculate with terlurian that's t-l-l-u-r-i-a-n the company that shrivsuki started after he left senior energy the liquefied natural gas export powerhouse given that there are huge natural gas shortages in both europe and asia they're not going away maybe our prices are a steel because we've got plenty of natural gas now remember i'm in a whirlwind of thought about what to say at 9 30 and and now i talked about buying these oils last week so i'm not going to go and hit them again right i'm not going to repeat what i said here there that's not interesting enough for me or you this show flies we hit china and we mentioned that tesla's going full board and prc even with the uh with the evergreen fallout i said i think tesla can go higher and it's giving us a nice umbrella to the whole electric vehicle complex that's lucid that's fischer polster a new one that's coming public be a spac merger tesla's now worth nearly 800 billion it's starting to make a big move up lucid looses at 42 billion polstar is going to have an enterprise value of roughly 20 billion i suggest that the lowly fisker should be bought at 14 and changed good call it then jumped more than 5 today which brings me to the maya dash since we've covered china and we've covered the banks we've covered oil can't be any of those now i had talked earlier about an emu that i thought about adopting this weekend when i went to the last chance ranch okay it's not that far from my place in bucks county and the brewers put put up that you move for a couple of last why not the emu really kind of funny and then i went to the prize and the prize the prize was micron not tesla which has been covered not the chinese not the dollar and not oil but micron see i told david faber that the big commodity semiconductor company reports tomorrow if it's going to be and if it could be down big on earnings if it reports a good number though i think you can really fly however i mentioned that there's a chance my car imports an inline number and then lowers its forecast how the heck you might ask is that possible in the middle of a semiconductor shortage simple not all chips are the same micron makes drams and flash two low margin kinds of chips that are quite abundant here that makes their earnings problematic more important the seven character stocks are pretty weak away from amd any upside surprise could send the group higher even if there's no good reason for them to trade higher hmm they don't trade together micron trades separate now what is this about well wait a second they're all bunched together in etfs so micron's the one to watch because when it reports tomorrow night it's going to define this most important group why mention it this morning because the analysts are all talking about it i wanted to get ahead of the quarter so micron stays as cramer's mad dash okay when we came to the bell the noticeable weakness in tech had to be commented on i simply pointed out that you can't have higher interest rates go and at the same time have gross stocks go higher it doesn't work they're simply they're not compatible once again the bank's word and the oil skyrocketed but even the travel and leisure stocks jumped now that's very unusual see traveling leisure is jumping even though oil and gas is jumping but they're not trading like they should see the latter uh is going up because kovid has peaked that's what people think now remember peaking and being beaten are two different things we're going to speak to dr scott godley former fda head who's written an amazing book called uncontrolled spread later in the show now he predicted a peep that does not mean well you should take a bow but doesn't mean it's finished right now i know the airlines and cruise lines are on fire but that it might be best to buy american express because there's both travel and interest rate exposure the and you know look when we're trying to figure out how to be bank how to be dollar you know how to be all these no wait a second america express you see here's the problem though i had hoped to save american express for stop trading that's the 955 one but now that it was out now that i mentioned gotta toss it out that puts my brain into overdrive i am now getting frantic about what to say when carl turns to me and says jim what are you going to think for stop trading but you know what i'm not out of bullets earlier today earlier today pipe named best buy a best idea that was the perfect way to end the show because i have met with best buy ceo corey barry who has spent a fortune making sure that they that the store can handle any supply chain interruptions and she did it well before what's happened now that took foresight that plus best buy has got some incredible new services including what amounts to your own personal it department when you work from home sure enough the stock rallies five bucks and then leads the retailers updated by the feeling that the delta variant has peaked so the great reopening trade is back on yes we're going not with travel leisure already out ruin that couldn't do american express sticking with the micron that stays in the picture and then best buy turns out to be my this was my stop trading well my handwriting is so bad but trust me when i say that this is my stop trading and this was my mad dash the bottom line bam bam bam micron for tomorrow best buy for today and a whole lot in between that squawk on the street from monday and it's on the man money for the rest of the day
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