저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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경기가 여전히 탄탄하고 강세장이 유효하다고 봄. 무역 불확실성은 여름 말께 해소될 것으로 기대. 심리지표는 아직 신중하고 밸류에이션(선행 PER 21배)은 조정 전 수준으로 복귀. 경기침체는 노동시장 지표상 아직 아니며 필요시 연준 금리인하가 완충책. 달러는 약세 우려와 달리 미국 자본시장 규모를 근거로 비관하지 않음. 리스크는 인정하나 주식 상승을 전망.
다듬은 글
course. Now, let's bring in Ed Yardi. He's the president of Yardeni Research. Good to have you here. Especially in this fastmoving now market. Uh, well, this is a reminder of the risks that still remain. What do you make of this? Well, I think we're still very much in a bull market. I think there's the weekend is is upon us.
People are taking their their profits once we got to a record high this this morning. So, I don't really think there's much to be concerned about. U I think the market's going to go higher because I think the economy is going to continue to prove resilient. I mean it has so shown some weakness of of late but that's uh really old data.
It's data that's in response to all the uncertainties and I think a lot of the uncertainties have dissipated. I mean clearly trade isn't a done issue yet but I think it will be by the end of the summer. I mean you're talking as if this headline never moved today that this is simply related to hitting a new high and nothing else.
I mean, the market would beg to differ. Well, it just begs to differ one day. That's that's okay. I've been I've been wrong on a daily basis. Well, we you know what? One of the reasons why we've been able to continue to move towards these new highs and then ultimately reach it. We haven't had any trade headlines, right?
And here they are back in front of us again. I I would say that uh the correction that we had earlier this year wasn't just all about trade. It was also about remember deep seek back in January. Do you remember that? A and suddenly there was all this concern that the uh tech companies were spending way too much money on AI infrastructure and then they came out with their first quarter earnings which were great and they said they were going to continue to spend billions of dollars on the data centers and so uh we've got uh Nvidia at a at a record high uh just recently.
And so you put it all together and I think it's a it's a pretty solid economy, pretty solid uh stock market. And you have no worries at all that whatever tariffs end up being in the endgame of all this wreck what you say is a still good and resilient economy because nobody can argue with the fact that the economy is pretty good and that it has remained really resilient.
But there is that hanging out there. Yeah, that's still hanging out there. There's always risk clearly in in the market, things to be concerned about. And sometimes the market goes up best when everybody's worried. And what's interesting is here we are basically at a rec record high in the market or almost at a record high and a lot of the sentiment indicators are still very wary very cautious.
You're not seeing a lot of bullishness in the sentiment indicators. So that's a good thing that suggests that people uh just really haven't bought into this recovery from the correction. But if you look at let's say you look at the momentum yeah factor and the momentum ETFs at a record high. Let's say you look at the high beta y ETF, you know, lower quality, higher risk names.
Those have been flying high. Isn't that a bit of a concern to you at at all of what any sort of speculative nature behind this move? Yeah. Well, look, uh I think the big concern here is that uh it's as though the correction never happened, right? We're right back what at the 21 forward PE at before the correction.
At the beginning of the year, we were at 22. So the valuation multiples gone up. Uh I I think to me that's an indication that there's a lot of investors that are coming around to my thinking that uh the the economy may be recession proof. I know that's uh that that's hanging out there with with a concept, but I've been hanging out with that concept since over the past three years when the Fed tightened uh Fed the economy remained resilient and now the economyy's remained resilient with the tariff issue.
All right. So you're like John Mackenro over there. you're just deafly voling away anything that I throw at you. No, no matter where I throw it, I mean, you you have no concerns cuz it doesn't sound you like you do. Um other than the oh well, there's always something to worry about or oh yeah, there's still unresolved tariffs or oh yeah, the tax bill still isn't done yet.
I mean, it could I could be wrong. It's happened before. I could be wrong about the economy. Uh the the res I may be overstating the resilience of the economy. It's certainly getting stress tested here, but I think it's it's already starting to show signs that it's it's passing the uh the the the Trump stress test.
And now, if I'm wrong about that, guess what? I'll be wrong about the Fed because I don't think the Fed has to do anything. But the Fed could always save my forecast by lowering interest rates if necessary. There's a lot of pressure building up on the Fed to lower interest rates if things get any weaker.
But things aren't all that weak. I mean, initial claims remain very low. Continuing claims a bit elevated. Not a bit. Continuing claims are elevated. It's it's taking longer to get a job. But uh the important thing is layoffs aren't occurring. And that's kind of the key to any business cycle. But you have the safety.
You just pointed the safety net. The Fed put in a worst case scenario, the Fed's going to come in and cut rates. Yeah. And not only that, but we're probably going to get Trump's uh extension of his tax cuts and maybe some additional tax cuts within within that. And the bond market seems to be okay with that at this point.
About the dollar. What do you think the message of the dollar is? I'm not bearish on the dollar. Everybody seems everybody else is Everybody else is bearish on the dollar. Scott, you know, I have a little contrarian streak in me, but I don't do just to be a contrarian. I look at the US and I see the world's largest capital markets.
I see that the bonds uh the bond auctions are going absolutely fine. Uh stock market, the world's largest stock market. So I I am not bearish on the dollar. But what's that about? What's that chart telling us? It's down 10%. I think it's the worst start decor months in decades. If you're looking at the DXY, uh the DXY, I think most people think it's a trade weighted index.
It's not. It's a fixed weight index. The euro is about 57% of that. So the euro has been very strong. I think that the euro has been strong because there's a perception and a hope that they're about to enter a a long period of deregulation of more fiscal excesses which has worked for us. Now we're kind of hoping it stimulates their economies.
Uh but I don't know about that. I I'm not quite sure that uh you know they're going to be able to deregulate us anywhere near what we've done over the years. I mean the more that that President Trump pounds on Fed Chair Powell, the dollar continues to go. He wants he wants a weaker. Do you have any concerns whatsoever that if there is this so-called shadow Fed share appointed much earlier than people think which could undermine the credibility of the Fed that that's an issue for the markets?
Well, even if even if Trump had let's say Christopher Waller who's a board a board governor but uh he clearly has aspirations to to replace Powell. even if he got Waller on there, uh there's still lots of other people on the FOMC and on uh on the at the board of governors that aren't necessarily going to go right along and lower interest rates.
No, but you know, I mean, the Fed the Fed chair himself yields the you know, if it's not an iron fist, it's it's darn close. I mean, I I would argue we could have some some real descent uh at at the board if in fact uh Waller pushes for the what what Trump is asking for. All right, we'll leave it there. Ed, thanks for coming by here at Edard Denny right here
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