저자: Shahid,Fuzzi · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500 주간 상승, 금요일 소폭 하락 언급. 시장 상승은 저가매수와 Kevin Warsh 연준의장 발언 후 방향성 불명확(중립) 해석에 따른 것으로 설명. 인플레이션 3.4~4%, 금리 인상 가능성 언급. Jeremy Grantham의 AI 버블 붕괴 경고를 소개하며 2020년 이후 과거 발언과 실제 지수 상승을 근거로 예측 무시를 권고. 장기 투자 유지와 실적 중심 접근을 강조.
다듬은 글
Okay, welcome to investor series where we are going to talk about market updates, ways to grow your wealth and how the benefits from investment. Welcome back to our weekly market update. My name is Shahid and my name is Fuzzi. So we are here investors in investor series where we are going to update you on what is happening in the market so that we are not fearful of the market and we are not panic if the market move downwards.
So shahid what is the current index of S&P 500 right now? Okay. So, the current index is currently um 7483. 7483. Yes. Okay. So, the does it going up? Is it going up or is it going down? Well, depends on when you look at it. Yeah. If we look at today, Thursday, slightly late uh from normal time that we update the the market.
So based on today the market going down slight slightly 222%. Yes. But if we were to compare from last week Yes. Right. The market is going up. Yeah. It's up by 1% 1.0%. And that's a lot actually. That's a lot. Yeah. A lot. Especially I mean if you invest big amount 1%. So if you have been uh following us through last week if you watch our market updates is actually uh 7,300 plus in the sense right?
Yeah. So it's quite low is going up. So Shahit may I ask you what's the reason the market is going up right now? Yeah. So last week since the market is down. Yes. The market is down last week. Right. So naturally the the the investor will take this opportunity to buy the discount. Yeah. So the people who have profit take they take the profits they buy in
this discount is it? Yes. Yes. So what I realize the season investor when they sell off their profit when they take their profit they don't like to hold on to the cash for very too long. Yes. Correct. Okay. So whenever they have the opportunity to go and enter the market again they will enter and hence it pushes the market early of this week.
All right. So then I think the second reason is uh because as of for last week I think until yesterday uh there is no news on interest rate hike like everything is like died down no one is saying anything hence it's going up okay but yesterday night yeah I mean if you are looking at Singapore time yesterday night uh Kevin Wash the new Federal Reserve chair actually gave his first ever speech in Portugal
and he actually you know gave uh you know insights on what uh he might do in the future. So first and foremost they are committed to fight inflation. They want to try to make sure that inflation goes down to 2%. Right now it's around 3.4 or maybe looking several uh different calculation might be even be 4%.
So it's quite high actually. So as we know we have always been saying this in investor series we educate know you everyone who is watching that interest rate is one of the ways for you to bring down inflation. If you increase the interest rate then the inflation might go down because business will be slowing down.
People will have not much cash and they have to pay more interest. So hence the business will go down and prices will at least maintain or go down a bit. All right. So Kevin Wash uh is committed to fight inflation although he also know that uh inflation is going down. Okay. Y is high right now but it's going down slowly.
Uh and right now okay because of what he said uh the market goes down a bit like mentioned by Shahid. If you look at comparing it to yesterday, it went down just after the speech. Okay. And uh reason being is because maybe people don't see any clarity in uh what in moving forward whether he's going to maintain or he's going to cut the rates or increase the rates.
There's no uh any confirmed decision. Hence, it went down. it doesn't go down so much because uh Kevin was also don't say that they will increase or decrease or interest rate hike or they will cut the interest rate. So hence uh it still remains I would say neutral that's why it's going up when Kevin wash gave this speech it died down a bit.
Yeah. Yeah. So I think right now but for us investors we are happy because everything is going up right now uh last week. Okay. Yeah. And and maybe yes a little bit because of that I mean despite the unclear um position Kevin Wash um took right uh we still need to continue investing. Yeah. Right. Because I especially look at the market last week.
So it all of this started when Kevin watched take the chair and and he didn't give a clear vision where he's going with the is he going to hike it or is he is going to cut it. So yeah that give a little bit of to investor. Yes correct. Yeah. Okay. But so far based on our experience when we continue uh investing we are going to bring from it eventually.
Yes correct. So you need to have time. The most important thing is to always have time and once you have time then uh you will not panic even if it goes down because you can actually change uh you know uh the allocation and switch funds right and and of course the headline is uh this is good. We are grateful that the state of Hormus is opening up again know the two countries is having a deal.
Uh and take note of this. The market goes up not because of that. I mean that that has been happening but the market doesn't move because of that. So hence this is a very important lesson for us that we don't just look at the headlines. the hairline. Yes, it created I would say when it first started it created some panic and created some movement in the market.
But ultimately we look at the price ultimately we look at the corporate earnings and right now one of the main reason why the stock market and the market is doing well is because the companies has good uh earnings. That's it. Yeah. So we have to always look at the earnings and one of the things that can I would say cut off that earnings to make it lower is interest rate and hence that's why investors is looking at Kevin Walsh uh you know very closely and monitor his speeches.
Yeah. Okay. So uh I think uh we have to keep on investing stay invested. Okay. And if you are not investing please do uh you know uh contact us shahid is here me I'm here also so that you know we can make your money work harder than the bank or even the CBF. So shah I think our last segment we want to talk about this particular individual okay
uh this indiv individual is the one who call out the dotcom bubble and the one who call out the financial crisis 2008. Okay. Hence because of this he had this what we call here he had this uh reputation of uh being you know someone who can actually call out certain bubbles or crashes market crashes.
All right. Um so uh recently he actually also said about the AI bubble. Okay. So let me check uh of on what he said. Okay. So he said in 2026 which is recently. Okay. What did he say? Let's look at this. Um okay. So he actually said oh no where's the okay here. Okay. So he actually said in recently the most recent thing that he said is sooner or later the bubble will burst and the price will return to its historic level.
And the person is Jeremy Grant. I think it's he actually featured in the diary of a CEO uh of particular man right is in a very uh popular podcast. Okay. And he actually said take out take out your all of your money from the technology stocks. Okay. Uh so uh of course I believe that some of our clients also are like panic when they saw this right because it's quite viral.
uh then I I start to you know research on him. So actually he said that the market will crash not recently he said it on 2020 the start 2020 he said the US market reached the two sigma bubble level that was six years ago six years ago 2021 he said again this the event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles okay 2022 let the wild rumpus begin okay to to say that this will be the super bubble
2022 entering the super bubbles final act 2022 is already final act but then hasn't crashed yet 2023 AI has created a bubble within a bubble then 2024 the only bull markets that continued from valuation like today were Japan 1989 and the US tech bubble of 1998 indicating that there might be a similar crash like for 2024 this he said it 2024 204 again he said the bigger the new idea the more the market becomes overpriced.
Okay, share again. 224 still haven't crashed yet. 225 the US stock market has now been in a bubble territory for a prolonged period. Sooner or later the bubble will burst 2025. Now 26 still haven't burst yet. AI is obviously a bubble. He said again this year and last the last quote like I mentioned before sooner or later the bubble will burst and the price will return to its historic level now and as we have seen so far it hasn't crashed yet.
Yeah, Shah maybe you can check for us in 2020 2020 how is the S&P 500 because you know you have been uh updating us on the uh on the S&P 500 2020 how is the S&P 500 index okay you look at it how is it how what is the number because right now it's 7,400 right around that so so 2020 is around 4,000 4,000 4,000.
Okay. Then imagine if we have followed him. Yes. We would not have profited or we would not have uh you know gain the profit have. So I think this is a lesson. The lesson that I for is that we don't just rely on what people say. We need to look into it. We need to look into the earnings. we need to look in
you know the the interest rate and we don't just feel uh know that the the the doomsday is coming. I think last time I'm a bit like that like you know very defensive uh trying to predict when is the next crash but I realize that that's not uh I can we are not saying that there will not be a crash there might crash
but when we do not know so yes since we do not know when is the crash why not we take advantage of the no the increase and the what we call the incline of this market and the profits Why not we take In fact, we do not we don't have to look uh in fact we don't have to look uh uh back to 2020 just return just return to one year ago if we were to follow this message
or this movement we will be profiting a lot. Yes. Correct. Yeah. Because we we we we decided to improve our skills and understanding onment. Yeah. To look into the uh earnings, understand more about the uh uh what the rate that's where it give us uh better confidence. Yes. Correct. portfolio. Yeah. And and we are happy also because when we saw our clients portfolio it has been going up and evidently in the S&P 4,000 to 7,000 nearly double.
If you don't invest in that time then you will be missing out on the opportunity. So that's why we are here me I me I'm here Shahid is you know here for us to help everyone to uh invest and to do your investment in the best way possible with knowledge with skills with with good positioning and uh by not panicking also.
Uh so all of this is when you are a updated when you know what is the fundamentals when you know what is the headline not saying that the headline is not uh important to look at but we need to at least know what is happening so that we can actually you know uh update each other update our clients update oursel that okay maybe this is just temporary.
Okay. Yes. Okay. Uh I think that's all for today. Uh, so next week, next week might be a special episode, okay? So tune, stay tuned for next week, okay? So I think uh that's all. Uh we will meet you next week. Bye-bye.
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