저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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2020년 3월 코로나 급락기 영상. 결론: 현 하락장은 아직 바닥이 아니며 단기적으로 현금이 왕이다. 시장 배경: 2019년 기록적 CEO 이탈(1,200명 이상), 2020년 1월 219명 이탈이 언급되며 경고 신호로 제시됨. 곰이 일찍 깨어나는 조짐도 언급. 하락장 진단: 현재 매도는 사상 최고치 이후 가장 빠른 약세장. 바닥은 보통 하락 시작 18일 후에 형성되지 않는다는 과거 드로다운 분석 제시. 경제 영향: 여행산업은 세계 GDP의 약 9조 달러 규모로, 2분기 동안 50~60% 감소하면 세계 GDP 약 5%가 증발할 수 있다고 주장. 연방정부의 강력하고 결정적인 개입 없이는 수개월~수분기 이상 지속 가능. 비교: 과거 대공황·금융위기와 달리 V자 회복은 기대하기 어렵고, 닷컴 버블 붕괴 후처럼 수년간의 침체 가능성 경고. 금·은: 헤지펀드의 증거금 콜 대응으로 금이 급락했으나, 1~3년 관점에서 금·은 상승 기대. 주식 전략: 약세장에서는 분할매수(달러 코스트 애버리징)가 일반적. S&P500이 1,500~2,000까지 밀릴 수 있다고 봄. 워런 버핏이 대규모 재매수에 나서면 장기(5~10년) 매수 적기로 볼 수 있다는 취지. 비트코인: 법정화폐 과다 발행에 대한 헤지이자 가치저장 수단으로 평가, 장기적으로 저평가 가능성 언급. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 하락 지속 가능성, 중기 금·은 강세, 장기 비트코인·주식 저평가 관점.
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people but i suppose i know there'll be no repercussions ultimately because the next day everyone's gone there's not gonna be morning families but then but then how dare you deprive that person of his last eight hours or ten hours of life um i don't care because it's the last day on earth what would you do i've always wanted to kick a duck up the ass investors clearly want to kick this black swan up the we discussed in the previous video the underlying issues with the economy and we also discussed in october 2019 how inflows to gold mining stocks and gold etfs are at on year all-time highs other countries are holding gold ceos know it's about to pop they want the stock market to be propped up quietly for as long as possible so they can exit they want to convince the dumb money that there's no recession so they'll formal in and buy their bags speaking of ceos here's some stats to chew on more than 1200 ceos left the positions in 2019 which was a record year for exits in january 2020 219 ceos exit scam no sorry left their positions which is also a record lots of investors are panicking and it has been a bloodbath with the s p 500 continuing to tank there are also worrying reports that bears are coming out of hibernation early let's take a look at the thoughts of trimath palapatiya a former facebook executive and billionaire whose fund has delivered the following returns you said earlier that we're nowhere near a bottom those were your words when do you think we get there and how are you going to know when we are there well you know bottoms are not created 18 days after something like this starts so you can go back in time and look at every meaningful drawdown in the market let's have a look at those historical drawdowns and we can see here in red the current sell-off this is now the fastest bear market after an all-time high in history so we can see therefore that the pain could be said to continue for a while longer in addition to this this event could be catastrophic for particular industries the travel industry being a prime example the gdp so you know for example if you just look at travel the travel industry and all its related interconnected businesses you know are almost nine trillion dollars of the world's economy now if you think you see travel trade off by fifty to sixty percent for two quarters uh that's five percent of the world's gdp that's going to go up in smoke but how long could these effects last and so these knock-on effects i think are multi-month they're probably multi-quarter and again i go back to how i started in the absence of massive and decisive federal intervention that that creates confidence in the markets it has the potential to be multi-year [ __ ] you can't be serious man you cannot be serious but seriously how long could the pain last you know the rancor and the partisanship ends today and people really in the federal bureaucracy figure this out but if they don't then the drawdown i think tip-to-tail will be as bad as the great financial crisis except unlike it we're not going to see some clever cute v-shape recovery we're going to see what we saw after the dot-com bubble burst which is years of malaise okay in all seriousness it does seem that the downside will continue this virus is very serious stuff and it is important to have cash and liquidity at this time one of the traditional hedging assets gold has also plunged apparently because hedge funds needed to cover margin calls in my opinion and disclaimer this is not investment advice in the very short term cash is king in the short to medium term i would expect gold and silver to do pretty well in the one to three year time frame in terms of a general approach for stocks dollar cost damaging in a bear market is generally the way to go the question is how low could we go well chimath thinks the correction of the same level as await as possible indicating that the s p could hit 1500 to 2 000 on a more qualitative basis when warren buffett starts to buy back in big you can assume that it's not a bad time to buy on the longer term time frame five to ten years another asset that has had a terrible time recently is bitcoin bitcoin is essentially a hedge against excessive fiat printing this is a fantastic fundamental hedge and store value against autocratic regimes and banking infrastructure that we know is corrosive to how the world needs to work properly you cannot have central banks infinitely printing currency you cannot have folks with you know misguided and misdirected monetary and fiscal policy the response to this situation is likely to involve a lot of fiat printing therefore it's worthwhile to at least consider the possibility that this asset is undervalued in the long term for more compounded valuable content subscribe and like you
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