저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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글로벌 유동성 과잉과 금리 의존 위험을 지적하며 시장 조정 가능성을 경고. 인도는 디지털화와 인구 증가로 장기 성장 전망이 밝다고 평가하며 센섹스가 5년 내 10만 포인트 도달 가능성을 언급. 유망 시장 순위는 인도·대만·베트남, 유망 섹터는 전자·반도체 제조, 인프라. 가상자산은 직접 투자보다 거래소 관련 기업이 낫다고 보고, 실물 금을 자산의 최소 10% 보유할 것을 권고. 장기 투자와 역발상 투자 강조.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome you're watching a special broadcast brought to you by Republic business on Republic TV this is rajat Mishra well uh the world is going through a sea change geopolitical situation is volatile the markets are volatile and there is a rising clamor for rate cuts across the world to shed light on the various aspects pertaining to Emerging Markets economy investment we are joined in by a very special guest Mr Mark mobus who is the chairman of mobus emerging opportunities for thank you Mark for joining us and speaking to Republic business and uh very congratulation first of all for coming out with your latest book known as the book of wealth a young Investors Guide for wealth and happiness thank you marks once again for joining and speaking to Republic business and Republic media Network thank you very much for having me uh so Mark I just want to start off by asking your first important question we know you are very bullish on India's growth story and that's something not hidden anymore but do you think that world also believes in India's growth story as much as you believe in uh yes I believe what's happening globally is that more and more people are tuned in uh to India are are increasing their knowledge of India and increasing their interest in India and this is particularly true uh in the US and Europe where uh there's a need for new Supply chains uh not so much dependent upon China but on other countries and India of course is the prime example of where countries can diversify their supply chains so the interest in India is definitely growing and also I just want to ask you uh what are what is your take we know that global economy is very volatile as for as of now geopolitical situation is also very volatile as of now markets are volatile how do you assess the global economy as of now and what are the few trends that you expect going forward well first of all as you know interest rates in America are very high U you can get as much as 5% for us treasuries short term and that is attracting a lot of money however there's still an incredible amount of money supply uh not only in the US but globally because as a result of covid many central banks pumped increasing amounts of money into the system in the US in one year alone uh the money Supply went up by 26% and over 2 years doubled that about 40% so you have still even though the FED has been decreasing the money supply growth uh the money supply is still there and so there's a lot of money searching for opportunities and that's true globally as well many of the central banks around the world would like to uh bring down inflation but it'll be very very difficult and they stand the danger of creating a crisis on the consumer side so this is something we have to watch carefully okay and what is your biggest worry as far as markets Global markets are concerned Global econom is concerned what is your biggest worry as of now uh my biggest worry is that the uh the dependence upon interest rates by market observers is too great in other words they believe that if interest rates come down the markets will do well and that's not necessarily the case if we look at history uh the correlation between interest rates and markets is not very close so this is a worry that I have that people will depend on that too much so we have to watch that the other thing of course is that we've been in a bull market for quite some time uh not only in India but in the US and other countries and there's always going to be a correction along the way so we've got to be ready for a correction at some point uh let's talk about your book Mark uh we also know that in your book one of the uh primary thing that you highlighted is that mental health is wealth and you have gone to an extent to explain it in a detail can you just tell us what are you trying to say by saying that mental health is a wealth and you have also given some anecdotal evid uh examples uh in your book can you just talk about and throw light on that as well uh yes what I try to point out in the book is that yes it's it's important uh for you to try to invest wisely in the short term and make money in the short term but most people are not going to be lucky in the short term they're going to be lucky in the long term and the way they are lucky is by maintaining their positions for long term and probably a good example of that is Warren Buffett who's been in the business for many many years and he's become wealthy because he's been able to hold positions for a long term of course that means picking the right positions in the market but at the end of the day uh the health aspect is very important because if you're healthy you can live longer if you can live longer you can invest longer and therefore become more wealthy right and it's a very well uh explained also Mark we also want to understand from you since uh you have been tracking India as an Emerging Market since long time and you we know that you have been very bullish on it how do you assess 10 years of prime minister Narendra Modi at the Helm of India as prime minister how do you assess the progress that we have done economically technologically how do you assess the last 10 years I think Modi has done a terrific job and I think the reason for that is his interest in digitization of the Indian economy uh he is very interested in technology and that is he realizes that's the way for a country to grow if you digitize the economy if you give people more tools uh such as the internet and other tools in the technology area the country is going to grow faster and that's what's happening now in India and Modi has promoted that very successfully right and obious one thing that everyone uh looks out for is what are you going to predict about the Indian markets and various stock markets for that matter how do you see the growth of sensex or for that matter Nifty in India what your what are your predictions as far as growth of Market in India in India is concerned well as I've said in the past the sensex are going to continue to grow there will be Corrections along the way but the sensex will do very very well in the long term so people investing today for the long term will do very well of course there'll be Corrections and that's the reason why it's a good idea to keep some cash available when those Corrections come but you should stay in the market with good companies companies that have good earnings growth low debt and you'll do very very well cuz India is growing at such an incredible Pace that uh the companies in India of course will benefit from that high growth right and and I read it somewhere that you also talked about that by end of this term of prime minister Narendra Modi third term of prime minister Narendra Modi sensex is likely to touch one lakh and so what is your take on that and what about Nifty do you expect it to touch by one lakh or now you expect uh considering the pace of the work and various developmental work being are going to be carried out in the next 5 years do you think that sensex is going to go beyond the point that you predicted earlier and what is your assessment going forward for next 10 years well certainly within the next 5 years it will reach one lak U the specifically when that will happen of course I can't predict but I know that it will go to that point and then after that uh you're going to see two laaks uh again it will be a long-term projection but that's definitely in the cards for India yeah and uh Mr mobus also one thing that I want to ask you because you have you are the one who have been tracking Emerging Markets all across the world so uh apart from develop developed economies if I ask you to rank the the the emerging markets in terms of your priority for as an investment destination what are the top three countries uh that you have in mind those you think have immense potential and rank it in the order of your priority uh first of course India Taiwan and then after that perhaps Vietnam those would be the two that we would look at and can you just do get go delve deeper into it and explain it what what what is what explains your priority when you take India on the spot one Taiwan on the spot two and Vietnam on spot three uh first of all in the case of India the young population uh the increase in technology and the use of Technology by the population at large is really the driving force the two driving forces in the case of Taiwan it's the semiconductor industry and how much they have advanced in that area and as you know uh tsmc Taiwan Semiconductor Company is the leader in that area but uh throughout Taiwan there are incredible companies that are doing very advanced technology so that's driving growth uh in the case of Vietnam uh they are increasingly taking over a manuf facturing from China and also it's a young population very Dynamic population and that will drive growth in that country we also uh know that China plus one is one thing and the businesses are moving out of China and coming to India and to other emerging economies as well uh when it comes to India and China what is your priority would you like to invest in China or India well of course you cannot ignore China China is still a very big economy you've still got very very good companies in China but at this stage of the game India is coming up at a very fast pace and taking a lot of the uh manufacturing uh from China that's taking time it's not going to happen overnight but definitely India will become a major manufacturer as you know India is still a big exporter of software the software industry in India is very Advanced perhaps more advanced than in in China uh but gradually the semiconductor industry will be coming into India and India will become a leader in semiconductor technology so that's where the big growth was going to be coming right and since you talked about the Indian markets and you also predicted that what is the level that they are expected to touch in the next 5 years I just want you to highlight certain sectors which you have a big you you like those have IM immense potential going forward and like I I seen that you have talked about it sector what are the top three sectors that you are bullish on as far as India is concerned uh the first would be in uh electronics manufacturing now of course there not that many companies yet but as I said more and more Electronics manufacturing semiconductor manufacturing will come to India and that's an a sect that you want to look at closely the other would be infrastructure so uh India needs an incredible increase in infrastructure and the demand is growing at a very rapid Pace because if you have a country growing it's you need more power electric power you need more railroads you need more roads you need more bridges all this infrastructure is a very very important part and an area where uh investments will be growing at a fast pace okay and Mr mobus we are talking at a time when we are just almost one month uh far of from the union budget of India is going to be presented by Finance Minister and uh you have already talked about the potential of India but what are the reforms top reforms that you want immed India to immediately take up and you would like then that would be a wish you would like to see it in the budget what are the top two reforms that you would like to see in India going forward uh first of all I would say a simplification of the uh paperwork and bureaucracy regarding in incoming funds incoming Investments uh there's a little bit too much bureaucracy now and there's a need to open the market up to that regard now of course related to that is foreign exchange I know the Reserve Bank of India is very careful with the exchange rate they're very careful about the amount of Foreign Exchange available but they have to free up that more and more to allow foreign investors to come in in other words when foreign investors come in they have to be able to get out out so you have to give them that assurance that they can bring money in and out without too much bureaucracy so I would say that's very very important because uh India needs to get this investment particularly when you get into semiconductors you require an incredible array of different Technologies to come in and that takes money right and also uh you I have uh read it somewhere that you talked about the best way to make money in the stock market is to to to get the best values to do what other people are not doing so can you just explain it to Young investors because you have been highlighting it in your book also and you have been talking it from the various platform just explain it for the young investors and those who are very actively trading in the stock market I tell people don't listen to me don't listen to your neighbors don't listen to your family don't listen to your friends listen to yourself look inside yourself and figure out what your real desires are and make your own decisions and of course the best time to buy when others are despondently selling the best time to sell is when others are greedily buying uh and that is a very very important aspect of investing so you have to be patient and you have to be very strong in such situations so if the Indian market crashes and goes down by 20 or 30% that's a time to be buying and of course if the Indian market goes up too high that's a time to be selling so you have to follow by principle generally and Mr mob's last question I want to ask you one is that what is your take on the cryptocurrency as an asset class do you consider investing in it as a good investment option and second what is the one phrase that come to your mind when you think about India as an emerging economy well uh crypto I always tell people when you ask me about crypto I tell them I don't like to talk about religion in public because it is kind of a religion um so I personally do not invest in crypto uh I prefer to invest in companies that are growing with good managements however uh you can make money in crypto but uh go into the areas where crypto is being exchanged in other words it's like the people who made money in the gold rush in California the people that made the big money were not the miners but the people who supplied the shovels and the wheelbarrows and so forth so in crypto it might be a good idea to go into crypto exchanges and that kind of thing but not in the crypto itself uh I think that's probably a better better way but there's no question crypto is very very important today and is getting more and more important because people want to transfer money around the world and it's an easy way to do that so it's very important to look at that and and last question is it a right time to invest in gold and one phrase that comes to your mind when we think about India's as an emerging economy you should always have gold and I know Indians love gold they have a lot of gold personally and I think it's a great thing you should have I would say at least 10% of your assets in physical gold uh not uh not gold in the market or anything like that but physical gold because it's a safety measure and it's something that we'll appreciate over time as you can see gold continues to increase right and one phrase that comes to your mind when you think about Indian economy Mr Mark oh that's a right I've been all over India and I can't think of any particular place I like all of India I really find it so exciting uh maybe uh hydrabad because that's where bahubali film was is shown in the the set of the bahubali film is shown there so hydrat is particularly fun for me well thank you so much Mark for speaking uh to Republic business and sparing out time thank you so much for sparing out time for Republic business Mr Mark thank you
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