저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
중동 전쟁으로 에너지 비용 급등, 인플레이션 가속 우려. 실제 소비자 물가는 공식치(2.8%)보다 훨씬 높다는 주장(7~12%, 사설 추정 10.5%). 연준 금리 인하 여부는 불확실하며 경기 침체 시 금리 하락 가능성을 언급. 달러는 장기적으로 쇠퇴 예상이나 단기적으로는 안전자산 선호로 강세. 금·귀금속 선호, 암호화폐엔 유보적. 통화 증발 정책은 중단하기 어렵다는 장기 비관론.
다듬은 글
You have a president in America who is not particularly knowledgeable. Actually, he doesn't know anything, but he likes to take decision. And a kind of boast about his power. And he went along with this war without thinking of the consequences. I mean, when when you analyze it really, the Western world has already lost something because uh the cost of energy has gone up a lot, and it it will also increase the prices of everything, everything.
And the bond market which they wanted, I mean, Biden and Trump to rally, they In other words, in order to be able for the government to pay the interest on the debt at lower cost, that interest on the bonds have actually has actually gone up. My view is it will go down because the economy will sink.
But uh we don't know. Depends on the Federal Reserve uh whether they will print money or not. More likely they will print than that they will not print. And so inflation will continue to accelerate. But it is like if you look at interest rates movement in the '70s when we had a similar situation. We had the oil shock in '73.
And after that, the interest rates went down in '74. And in '76, actually. And then it went up massively, and then it went down again and then massively into 1981. So the interest rates have big swings. And there's money to be made in bonds. But at the present time, the interest rates are not particularly high, not like in 1974.
In '74, uh we touched a high of interest rates at the beginning of the year of 20 over 12% on the primary and then we dropped to 6.1% Mhm. At the moment, the the interest rates are not that high, as you know. Mark, you were one of the only ones in July of 2025, the last time you were on. Um you were forecasting interest rates would go higher.
And you were one of the only ones at that time. Everyone else was calling, you know, for for a decline in rates. Do you now see interest rates going lower given the outbreak of this war? It's difficult to make any predictions because in war times, so many things can happen, but my sense is the consumer in America was actually not doing well for the last 12 months.
If you measure his earnings gain, the salary increases, and you measure the cost of living increases. Now, the government says the inflation is 2.8% or whatnot. But, the reality, you go to the typical household in America, including yourself, I don't know where you live, the cost of living is going up by between 7% and 12%.
Some households, they have an increase of 12%. It also depends on how the household is composed of. How many children go to private schools, how many children need to be insured, and how much how many cars you have, how many car insurances you need to pay every year. I can tell you I have private economists that calculate the inflation rate according to old measures, old calculations.
They have an inflation of approximately 10.5% at the present time. Across North America? Yes. Yeah. Yes, that feels about right. That feels about right. Yeah. I don't know about the 10%, but I would think that the rate of cost of living increases because I don't like to use inflation because uh inflation is basically money printing and then you have because of money printing you have sometimes wages going up and sometimes commodities go up and sometimes real estate goes up and sometimes stocks go up and sometimes real estate and so forth.
Yeah. But but it doesn't happen all at the same time. That's why uh if the price level would move up evenly, then no damage would occur, but this is not the case in money printing environments. One asset moves at a different time from the other. And as you know, since COVID we had massive money printing, but commercial real estate is down in many cases by 80% 80 Incredible.
despite of money printing. That's why I always say if people say, "Oh, stocks will go up because of money printing." Yeah. Yes, maybe, but there are cases where And stocks go down despite of money printing. Mhm. And they can go down because the currency is weak. Now, you may argue, well, the currency is weak.
Weak against what? Certainly not against the euro that is a useless currency long-term. And so was but and that I agree, but it can go down against say gold. That would be a store of value currency. Do you think this war will accelerate the demise of the US dollar both from just a confidence level? I mean, we sort of have to see this the sell American narrative over the last, you know, 6 to 12 months accelerating.
Do you think this will sort of supercharge it? We've seen the traditional rush back to the dollar. I mean, you saw that the US dollar the US dollar index almost hit a hundred. I like the expression supercharged that the crack of the stock market. That's a wonderful word. Indeed, right? I mean, but we've seen that we've seen everyone rush back to the dollar like they always do and it's now flirting with a hundred again.
Um how do you see this playing out? My sense is that the dollar is a doomed currency for sure, but the others may not be better. You understand? That's why a lot of young people they buy cryptocurrencies. I have some serious reservations about cryptocurrencies. But I don't want to give a speech on the topic.
My preference is to own precious metals. But I see the necessity of paper money for the purpose of buying and selling goods because, you know, you go into a department store, you need a a unit of account to buy something. And for that unit of account paper money is suitable, but it would seem to me that paper money is not suitable as a store of value because the purchasing power of money, and I can say that I look at the prices I paid in the '50s and '60s when I was growing up, and the prices I have to pay now.
Uh of course, paper money has lost purchasing power. On the other hand, assuming I put all the money on deposit in treasury bills, and I rolled it over, or I put it all in gold, then the purchasing power was probably better maintained. Do you understand? With the accumulating interest. Yeah. Uh so the calculations are not so easy.
Mhm. But in general, if you look at history, the value of paper money has always gone down to next to zero because when problems arise in a social system that knows money, the optimal solutions would be tight monetary policy and default. But these measures are so painful on society that the rulers or the politicians will not choose them because the principle concern of a ruler, a king or lord or emperor, or a democracy is to stay in power, for the party to stay in power.
So they use the method of printing money to overcome the near-term problems and they say to themselves, well, uh we'll solve that issue later. Mhm. But once you embark on money printing, and this I want to observe and really emphasize, once you embark on money printing like Bernanke did in December 2008, you cannot stop it without significant pain.
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