Why (NVDA) Nvidia Stock 📈Jumped 8% On Q4 Revenue Miss

요약 보기

엔비디아 실적 발표 후 주가 급등은 펀더멘털이 강하다는 신호이며, 장기 보유 관점을 유지한다는 결론. 실적 요약: 주당순이익(EPS) 0.92달러로 컨센서스를 17센트 상회했으나, 매출 22.1억 달러는 약 3천만 달러 하회. 시간외 거래에서 주가가 약 15달러 상승, 166~167달러까지 올랐다가 정규장 마감 무렵 160달러대 초반으로 밀려남. 가이던스 분석: 지난 분기 매출 가이던스 하향(암호화폐 채굴 관련 수요 붕괴 영향)과 목표가 하향이 있었으나, 이번 2020년 가이던스가 기존 약 5% 감소 전망에서 보합~소폭 감소로 상향 수정됨. 이것이 급등의 핵심 원인이라고 설명. 부문별 매출: GPU 19.8억 달러(전분기 대비 29% 증가 언급), 게이밍 9.54억 달러, 프로페셔널 비주얼라이제이션 2.93억 달러, 데이터센터 6.79억 달러, 자동차 1.63억 달러, OEM·IP 1.16억 달러. 매출총이익률 약 59%, 운영비용 7.55억 달러. 배당은 주당 0.16달러로 변동 없음. 시장 해석: 2008~2009년 금융위기 이후 회복기처럼 기관 투자자들이 밸류에이션 기준으로 저평가 종목을 매수하는 패턴을 언급. 암호화폐 관련 수치 왜곡 우려가 있었으나 대부분 가격에 반영됐을 것으로 봄. 전망과 리스크: 로보틱스, AI, 클라우드 컴퓨팅, 그래픽 개선 등에서 엔비디아가 핵심 역할을 할 것으로 전망하며 포트폴리오 편입 의지를 밝힘. 애널리스트 등급 변경은 주가에 과도하게 반응하지 말고 무시하라고 조언. 다음 분기 실적으로 결과를 확인하자고 제안. 출연자 개인 포지션: 엔비디아 주식 다수 보유, 엔비디아 비중이 높은 ETF(BOTZ, USD 등)도 보유 중.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. what is going on everyone my name is Jeff guys I hope you had a wonderful Valentine's Day I know I had a really really good afternoon and this right here just made it even sweeter of course as many of you already know I am a big Nvidia shareholder and not only do I own you know quite a bit of the stock but I also AM invested in several ETFs that are Nvidia heavy like bots and USD now they've reported earnings today guys and actually had a Miss on revenue and right here in after hours when the market closed the stock actually shot up about fifteen dollars a share and course treaded up around a 166 to 167 level and it's kind of tapered back off to the lower one 60s by the time the market is closed today but there's a whole lot of positivity in this earnings report guys and I think the real beauty is that we're finally working through all the crypto numbers I seen a lot of people on social media between Facebook and Twitter saying they were shorting Nvidia going into the earnings call and that they were buying put options and guys this is the reason this right here is the reason why I preach and preach and preach is don't be trading you know purely on an earnings call because you can get burnt so bad even if you call it right like I said Nvidia did have a mess on revenue alright so here it is guys Nvidia beat by 17 cents and then they misunderstood since beat by 17 cents I was actually very excited to see that I thought they were gonna have a mess on the top and bottom line but ended up beating their GAAP EPS of 92 cents that beat by 29 cents so very good report on the top line another revenue of 2.2 1 billion missed by 30 million dollars so it was a little confusing to me again this reminds me of the other day when Activision Blizzard missed on earnings and the stock started going up of course guys the market is behaving a little out of ordinary and so the real key here guys is to focus on valuation metrics this is we're spending a lot of time having a lot of experience in the stock market comes in handy to reflect on since you like this it even reminds me of the crash we had back in 2008 and then when the market started to recover in 2009 almost every company would miss on EPS and miss on revenue and their stock price would shoot up just because valuation metrics have beat these stocks down so low that as long as that they were putting out you know good numbers with revenue and decent numbers on EPS you know institutional investors are still gonna come in and buy the stocks okay and that was everybody's biggest fear you know going into the last two earnings report was our the crypto numbers really manipulating the stock price and yes they were they definitely were but with that said NVIDIA is a fantastic company guys very fundamentally strong and ice definitely want this stock in my portfolio going forward into the future so you know from robotics artificial intelligence and Tana misil you know improvement in graphics pretty much any way you want to look at cloud computing and they really hold the keys to all the stuff that we are gonna see in the future so so let's start walking through this guys a little step at a time NVIDIA actually climbed up on a revenue mist now why did this happen well a couple of weeks ago guys if you remember I published this video about why Nvidia stock lost 14% and guys they took a big revenue guidance cut going into this quarter they also took a couple of down grades in the price target okay the crypto numbers were still getting whitewashed out of their revenues and then it was gonna take another quarter to of course I still believe some of that is probably priced in we are definitely getting to the end of it okay so Nvidia shares actually clock went up 8.6 percent like I said after the results of beat on EPS miss on revenue but the figure was in line with a 2.2 billion dollar mid point guidance cut okay so when that guidance can't come out guys Nvidia revenue actually met that institutional investors took that as a great vote of confidence that the management and NVIDIA has regained their ability to forecast stock price a little better and then the downward corwin guidance has revenue within 2% of 2.2 billion and with about a 59% gross margin 755 million dollars in operating expenses and now guys don't let this confuse you I know it can kind of seem a little confusing but it's actually pretty simple the forward year 2020 guidance expects revenues flat to slightly down so let me just stop right there the guidance has actually been raised okay from an estimated 5% drop so now they're supposed to be flat or just slightly down okay so actually guidance revenue got bumped up a little bit that's why the stock took off and jump today and again guys - you know Jensen who Eng he got very very beat up in the media because he still put up such bullish forecasting for Nvidia you know even with knowledge you know that the crypto numbers we're getting washed out of the stock price and he did not warn investors about that okay and I hope and I know that he has gained a lot of experience from this and now lastly let's just break down the revenue the GPU come in at one point nine eight billion 29% quarter-over-quarter and guys I'm gonna just ignore these year-over-year percentages because they are so manipulated due to the crypto burn and gaming come in at 954 million in quarter three shows a one point seven six billion forecast professional visualization 293 million you know the data center at 679 million Auto at 163 million and then OAM and IP at a hundred and 16 million dollars so and they did not make any changes to their dividend guys that's this thing at sixteen cents so no news there but I think where we are currently at within video guys we are back on more of a stable ground okay but what I want you all to do and this goes for Nvidia Intel and AMD over the next quarter is of course pay attention to analyst upgrades and downgrades you always have to be aware of that stuff and I try to pump out videos every time I hear one I think is gonna affect the stock price on the same exact level guys I want you to also start ignoring that a little bit okay analysts have beaten video up and down and up and down all over the place and I have seen it just too many times right now we are gonna focus on NVIDIA fundamentally we're gonna stay plugged into any news and any innovation directly from the company and let's all see what kind of results we get next quarter but anyways guys that's all I got for today's video and then of course comment guys I want to hear your thoughts on Nvidia I know there's a lot of Nvidia shareholders that wants a channel so tell me what is on your mind thanks for watching and happy Valentine's Day you