저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 단기 상승 여력은 있으나 S&P500과 나스닥100이 기술적 저항대에 닿아 있어, 저항 돌파 실패 시 큰 조정(최대 25% 하락 시나리오)이 현실화될 수 있다는 경고. [시장 환경] 영국 브렉시트 불확실성 완화, 미중 무역전쟁 완화 조짐, 연준 금리인하, 견조한 고용과 양호한 실적 시즌이 긍정 요인으로 언급됨. 다만 IPO 물량 급증으로 수급 압박이 있고, 엘리자베스 워런의 민주당 선두 부상 등 정치적 불확실성이 부담으로 제시됨. [기술적 분석 - VIX] 공포지수 VIX 선물에서 대형 투기세력(Large Speculator)의 순매도 포지션이 약 15.5만~17만 계약 수준으로 과열된 숏으로 평가됨. 과거 이런 숏 쏠림 후 VIX가 급등하면 숏 커버링이 나타났던 전례가 있어, VIX 반등 시 S&P500 하락 가능성이 언급됨. [S&P500 전망] 12월물 e-mini 기준 현재 3000 상회. 상단 저항은 3150 부근, 3060~3090 구간 단기 함정(bull trap) 가능성. 상단이 막히면 2500 장기 지지선까지 하락 가능, 2100~2000 하향 이탈은 낮은 확률로 제시. 월봉 RSI가 과매수 구간 진입 전이지만 근접 시 조정 우려. [나스닥100 전망] 8100~8180 극단적 저항, 일시 돌파 시 8240이 새 천장이 될 수 있음. 과매수 진입 시 급락 가능성. 지지선은 6930 부근, 더 심한 조정 시 4590~5100대(약 25% 하락) 시나리오 언급. [패널 전망] Carly Garner는 단기적으로 지수가 몇 주간 더 오를 수 있으나 그 이후 실질적 위험이 크다고 봄. 크레이머는 전반적 강세장 논리는 인정하면서도 상승 중 일부 차익실현과 신중함을 권고. 언급 종목 개별 방향성은 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
what makes this market so hard to like on the one hand many of the problems we've been holding us back in some cases for years starting to resolve themselves right I mean the UK just kick the can down the road again we'll brexit but maybe there's a resolution the trade war with China is cooling at least for the moment the feds giving us a much needed rate cut the job markets still strong and so far this earning season is looking I think pretty darn well I let's say maybe it's looking not as bad as feared mammoth you think that that would give us a pretty positive backdrop but for every hurdle we overcome there's a new one standing in front of us as I mentioned the top of the show the stock market's been flooded with new supply thanks to all these IPOs like mmm any other market when supply overwhelms demand it puts pressure on prices on top of that we have a tremendous amount of political uncertainty from impeachment to the twenty20 election and wall street hates uncertainty we had a boatload of it for weeks now many investors have been freaking out about Senator Elizabeth Warren's new status as a Democratic frontrunner she's the candidate who wants to crack down the perceived excess is a big business the stock market represents big business it's easy to understand my money managers are worried however you no matter how you feel about President Trump Wall Street likes his economic policies aside from the trade war so for the next year it wouldn't surprise me if the average is bounce back and forth back and forth in response to the poet I know that's a suboptimal situation it's the last thing we want to worry about it's Washington we're trying to figure out companies but this stuff is kind of nebulous and it's very hard to look at with the kind of clinical detachment that you need to be a good investor that's why tonight we do something different we're off the charts on a Monday with the help of Carly garner she's a brain technician she's also the co-founder of the Carly Trading and the author of higher probability commodity trading to get a more quantitative more empirical read on this market now garner points out from yesterday 500 hasn't made much progress since it peaked last year after rocketing higher from late 2016 through early 2018 the market spent most in the last couple of years digesting those games and no more lately though the SP surged new highs and gars discerned this is quite contrary of what I'm hearing that we may be approaching a point where all the good news is baked in more importantly she thinks we're about to encounter some serious technical resistance here when you pair that with a glut of new stock from the IPO de leurs which I told you is not done but said peloton today even though it's recommended by everybody and the political headwinds well she sees a let's say not so pretty picture let's take a look why does she expect resistance take this is a look at a very difficult concept but we're gonna try to walk through it this is the weekly chart of the CBOE Volatility Index the VIX for short which is also known as the fear gauge because it tends to do a good job of capturing the overall level of terror in the market technically the VIX measures the volatility premium people are paying for S&P 500 options it tends to go down when investors are complacent and it goes up when they are afraid see this is you could argue as a measure of complacency lately the VIX has been pumping but when what garnet weiss in this chart is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders report that's the cot okay which tells you what certain types of investors are doing with the VIX users what we care about here is the large speculator category money managers because it can give us some insight into when a trade may be a right or it may be to Crowley keep that foot in your mind right now the VIX future speculations are next short by about 155 thousand contracts not far from what garner we considered to be an over heated short trade and around 1700 170 thousand contracts CU hundred seventy thousand and put it up here okay keep all these these are all important side I don't want to I know there's too much here but that this is really important because why does it matter because in the pass both the VIX and the sp500 have a habit of reversing one speculator starts shorting the VIX futures too heavily when the VIX spikes yes to be tends to get crushed all right so you can see that in other words if this were to go back up then the SP would go like that all right now well how about the S&P 500 itself take a look at this longer-term monthly chart of the S&P 100 December emini futures that's a key contract everybody watches who trades the futures in the short run garner think's bullish seasonal patterns and optimism should be able to carry us higher but if we rally much further from here the relative strength index and that's down here RSI okay that's an important momentum in here we'll shift into overbought territory suggesting it will be due for a pullback right now the espys just above 3000 okay so keep this mine in - is where it is alright cars just expect you swing resistance at thirty thirty we're three one five oh three thousand one hundred fifty this is this appropriate ceiling anywhere somewhere in between maybe her focus is on the 3060 - 3090 area it's possibly get there get a short squeeze here okay a kind of bull trap move that tricks you into thinking everything's okay that's what some people thought was happening today if that ceiling holds garner says you want to be prepared for a sell-off possibly for a severe one so notice we can't take this out she wouldn't be surprised if we get a pullback down to the ESPYs long-term floor okay of the 2500 get this be a hideous move but it wouldn't negate the bull market however if the S&P breaks below the long-term well the quarter things to plunge under 2,100 2,000 could be a real possibility at the moment though she still considers that a pretty low probability outcome so she thinks it goes to here but I've done it doesn't if that doesn't hold then she thinks is good here that's big decline then there's the monthly charge lien Nasdaq 100 of the tech-heavy index made up of the hardened hundred largest non-financial companies and then that's that composite at this point the Nasdaq 100 said some pretty lofty levels all the way up here with them right now the ndx is about 66 points away from 88,000 and garnish these extreme resistance the 8100 level what I'm sorry 8180 levels her resistance but just like with the SP guara believes there's a chance for a temporary probe above resistance that may lure in buyers if that happens 80240 becomes the ceiling so in other words we get some momentum players come in not the kind of buyers you want also just like the SP the nasdaq-100 is not yet excessively overbought and that's down here according to the relative strength index however if it keeps climbing will soon reach overbought territory and then Garneau specialist thing to roll over and roll over badly how terribly could we be hit and then rome 11th floor of the market she thinks we find a support at six nine three Oh down here but that's down about a thousand points for them from where we are but it wouldn't shock her if we got a more serious correction that takes us down to the four five nine 105 thousand hundred ten well this is a lace jump this is a twenty five percent decline its corner right honestly I do not subscribe to her negativity but you need to be aware that these bearer scenarios are on the table in a lot of people's heads here's the bottom line the charts is interpreted by Carly garner suggests that the averages could keep climbing for the next few weeks but after that she thinks we're in real trouble and she recommends using any of the strengths were about to get to ring the register my view look it never hurts to be a little cautious as we keep climbing I think there's more to the bull market than Carnegie's and credit for it still we need her perspective she's been breaking a lot of things because now things do start rolling over you'll understand what the technical say about the possible downside in front of us stick with crane
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