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for more on the week ahead as well as that strong october jobs data that we saw let's bring in alianz and gramercy's advisor muhammad al aryan he's also the president of queens college cambridge and muhammad looking at the markets it's all systems go we're looking at new highs for at least five of the major averages many of the major sectors what's happening here nothing to be concerned about more of the same becky and that is that the liquidity conditions and the lack of alternatives continues to attract money into the stock market you know last week was fascinating because the stock market was steady normal gains the bond market was crazy volatile yeah and that shows you the the big split we have right now between an equity market that's very comfortable about flows and a bond market that's trying to guess what central banks are going to do and what inflation is going to do could they both be right i mean you could see the markets continue the stock market continuing to push higher even if there are some bumps in the road along the way and even if the central bank starts kind of raining things in there a lot of people who said that's way overdue yeah and i'm one of them and we saw that the tapered decision did not cause any big drama i just wish they had done it earlier yes we can live in a world like this for a while as long as the mindset in the market is relative relative valuation will continue to favor not just the stock market and stocks but will also favor crypto because people feel that there's no diversifier the bond market is too distorted to be diversifier and there's no good inflation hedge so so as long as the mindset remains relative as opposed to absolute we can what makes it absolute is a policy mistake when are we ever going to not look at things on a relative basis i mean if you find that equities are a better place than other places to put your money isn't that always what's going to happen no so let me give you an example um you know when you get a big shock to the marketplace you get an increase in risk aversion and you get a reversal so what would be this big shock that we have to avoid is a policy mistake for example the fed being too slow and then having to slam on the brakes and send the economy into recession that's not a baseline but that's a risk that's the sort of thing that can change mindsets from relative to absolute hopefully we can avoid that i mean i i get your point that there are times when people feel safer with their money in a mattress than than in any other investment that they could possibly pick but even if the fed did slam on the brakes it's hard to imagine that you think your money's going to be safer in a mattress if inflation is running rampant yeah it's a question of of of how much you risk losing on inflation you're talking about small single digit on the marketplace if there's a policy mistake you're talking about double digits so that's the difference um and we don't have a historical experience where the fed has been late in tightening and hasn't sent us into recession if you send us into recession earnings get hit two ways one is of course the amount that is sold and two is pricing power so that's why we need to avoid that situation muhammad yesterday the new york times had a story on the front page about how this economy looks great and some people are still feeling the pain so how do you kind of put those two together and then the journal this morning kind of asking the question that things are great here but which economy is going to stand up and take over from here what i know that the markets aren't the economy but when you're looking at the economy what do you see coming so i think the best analogy was the economist this week that said that the global economy is like a badly microwaved meal some parts are hard some parts are just right and some parts are called and somehow yeah it needs stirring up it needs a little bit of better coordination so we have an incredibly dispersed economy i i you know the u.s is just fine because the demand side is strong we have to pay attention to the supply side that is a bit of an issue but the demand side in the us is very strong you go elsewhere in china both the demand and supply are on issues so you know you have a very dispersed global economy and in terms of economic analysis you've really got to do a lot of granular work
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