저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
연준이 금리를 인하했음에도 장기채 금리가 오히려 상승해 연준이 금리 통제력을 잃었다고 주장. 국가부채 이자부담 급증과 재정 적자로 금융체계가 5년 내 붕괴할 것이라 전망. 최근 금값 급등을 단기 매수 신호로 제시하며, 지폐는 결국 가치 0으로 수렴하므로 금·은 등 실물자산 보유를 권고.
다듬은 글
Now the Fed, theoretically , the Federal Reserve System, theoretically, can lower rates. But, as you know, they started lowering rates in October 2024. But what did the bond market do ? He didn't go up. Bond yields did not fall, but on the contrary, increased. This is a very strong signal that the Fed, the Federal Reserve System, has lost control of interest rates.
This is why when prices rise during a crisis, people often liquidate some of their gold. Let me tell you, the price of gold has skyrocketed in the last 2-3 days, very strong growth, a clear signal to buy. Not in the long term, but in the short term. Global macroeconomic stability faces unprecedented risk as budget deficits balloon and central banks lose control of rates.
When rate cuts fail to reduce bond yields, financial markets send a clear warning about the sustainability of government debt. Mark Faber, a renowned economist and financial commentator, emphasizes that decades of unrestrained monetary manipulation have pushed the global financial system beyond the limits of a painless recovery.
He predicts that the recent sharp jump in gold prices serves as a powerful short-term signal for vigilant investors seeking safety. With the national debt rising by trillions and interest payments exceeding $1 trillion a year, artificial rate manipulation can no longer hide the weakness of the economy.
Central banks can force short-term borrowing costs to fall to zero, but long-term bond markets will reject these interventions. Faber predicts that this aggressive debt devaluation will reach an extreme point, predicting with complete confidence that the current financial system will collapse in less than 5 years.
If this analysis waterest rates and commodity prices move in long-term cycles, and the peak of global interest rates in terms of the long-term cycle occurred in 1981. After the inflationary period of the late 60s and 70s, we reached a peak in the 10- year Treasury bond yield of 15.84% on September 21, 1981.
After that, we saw interest rates decline in a secular downtrend, in other words, a “ bull” market for bonds and stocks. I thought interest rates should have bottomed out sometime in the early 2000s, but thanks to the Fed, money printing, and artificially depressing rates, we were able to hold them down until August 2020.
And then the 10-year bond hit a low of 0.5%, okay? Half a percent. And since then we have been in a pattern of rising interest rates. So this means that when interest rates went down and government debt went up, it didn't do any harm because the government could borrow money at ever lower rates. So, although the debt was growing, the burden of interest payments was not increasing.
The interest burden was actually decreasing as the average rate on the total debt fell, but now everything has changed, and interest payments on the national debt are no longer $300 billion per year, but over a trillion dollars per year. You are right. And with deficits and Trump, he doesn't care about debts.
He has never paid off any debts in his life , and now he runs the country with the largest debt in the world. And when you think about it, it's a real horror. Whatever the case, the debt level is now increasing by the amount of the deficit every year, which means the debt is increasing by about two, three, four trillion dollars a year, and interest payments are increasing because interest rates are no longer falling.
Now the Fed, the Federal Reserve System, theoretically, can lower rates. But as you know, they started lowering rates in October 2024 . But what did the bond market do? He did n't go up. Bond yields have not fallen, but on the contrary, they have increased. This is a very strong signal that the Fed, the Federal Reserve System, has lost control of interest rates.
They control short-term rates. They could set short-term rates at 0%. They can do that. But 30-year Treasury bonds will not rise from this, but will fall, because the market will say, "Okay, the government no longer has any discipline." And I'll tell you, over the last 2-3 days the price of gold has skyrocketed, very strong growth, a clear signal to buy, not in the long term, but in the short term.
In my opinion, the price of gold reacted the way it did and went up because some people are scratching their heads. They see that the American government, particularly the Treasury Department, wants the Fed to lend money to Japan to support the Japanese yen. In other words, they don't want the Japanese to sell Treasury bonds.
So what do they do? Think about this soberly. They lend money to someone so that someone can buy or hold Treasury bonds. They would rather lend money to someone to hold the bonds than admit that they will sell them. And this is a manipulation that cannot end well. So you say, "Sure, Mark, we know all this, but it could take a very long time." Well, you know, in economic theory, once you start printing money, the question arises: can you print just a little bit of money?
This is impossible. You have to either stop it and reduce inflation, and this process is similar to surgery in a hospital . The economy is grateful. It is very painful, but it can be done. But this can only be done at the very beginning. In my opinion, we started this money printing game in December 2008.
In my opinion, it is too late to correct this abuse of the monetary system without significant losses. Do you understand? It can be done, but you know, people will suffer, politicians will lose their positions, the government will change, and so on. It's possible, but Trump won't do it. He doesn't want the stock market to crash because of his friends and his own interests.
His fortune is built on asset inflation. He would have gone bankrupt many times if the system hadn't constantly printed money, driving up the prices of his assets. So, I think it will now accelerate, and we are at a point where it will accelerate to the point where it will not last more than 5 years.
I am 100% sure of this. Long-term interest rate cycles demonstrate how systemic changes in monetary policy affect economic stability. After bond yields peaked in September, a long-running bull market in bonds and stocks drove down the cost of borrowing for decades. However, this downward trend bottomed out in August at half a percent.
Although the national debt was manageable when borrowing costs fell, annual interest payments now exceed huge fiscal limits. Uncontrolled government spending depends on constant market manipulation, such as financing foreign entities to prevent a massive sell-off of Treasury bonds. Ending the issuance of paper money requires serious economic pain, akin to complex surgery, but the political leadership consistently puts asset inflation above fiscal discipline.
Preserving wealth depends on understanding that central bank liquidity simply inflates financial bubbles, not creates real economic growth . Now let's get back to the interview. My opinion on this is the same as it has been for the last 40 years: paper money is a construct created mostly by bankers who control its quantity, and together with the government they have a vested interest in increasing this quantity of money.
So, over time, inevitably in every society that has existed in the world from the beginning of recorded history 5000 BC to the present day , every paper currency eventually lost its value completely. So it turns out that paper money always returned to its intrinsic value , which is zero. Whereas gold, silver, and platinum are still difficult to artificially produce.
I'm not saying it's impossible, because maybe it will happen someday, but they are still impossible to produce, and because of their limited quantity and high cost of extraction, they have the value of rare metals and cannot be destroyed. Let's say if you keep a Picasso in your house and the house burns down, then the Picasso becomes worthless, but the gold doesn't disappear.
It will still remain. It will melt, yes, but it will still remain. And now the fireman, if he's not very honest, he can take it away. All our possessions, philosophically speaking, are perhaps, and it is good, that they are fleeting. In other words, if you look at your life, you have things that you can use temporarily.
In eternity , in a very short period of time, say 50 or 100 years, they have no idea about stocks. Poor people, because I live in, well, it's not a poor country, but a relatively poor country like Thailand, ordinary people have no idea about the stock market. They don't know what stocks are. They don't know what bonds are and so on.
So when they have money , they buy gold. Gold shops are everywhere. And they buy gold for, say, $20 or $30. And I mean, a small amount. And if the price goes up, and if there is an economic problem, in Asia we don't have social security. When things go badly, you No one helps you. You must tighten your belt.
So , these families are forced to liquidate something. Will they sell the car when all the neighbors see it? You understand, you have a problem. Are you going to sell your house and your family will have to move somewhere, or a motorcycle to commute to work? No. You are selling gold. That's why when the price rises during a crisis , people often sell some gold.
I'm not saying that's what rich people do. Mr. Trump and his partners and so on, and the hedge fund managers in America, all of them, all the hedge fund managers, privately own gold. Maybe not that much, you know, if your net worth is $20 billion, you might have $500 million or a billion dollars in gold.
But I know people who are gold fanatics, they hold 90% of their wealth in mining stocks, physical gold and silver. I know that. I am not one of this group of people because I believe that in the long run, other investments are probably better than gold. But I personally have a significant stake in gold, very significant.
Certainly, compared to other people. Others say they have gold, having a few coins, even 3% of their wealth is not in gold . I have more. So I believe in him. But at the same time, I also realize that other things, of course, become more valuable over time than, say, gold. Let's say if you and I had bought the Dow Jones index in 1900 and constantly reinvested the dividends, despite the crash of 1929 and everything else, we would have been in a much better position than if we had owned gold, I would say.
But at the same time, I must point out that the Dow Jones index has performed exceptionally well since 1900 . Do you understand? If you bought shares in the Russian market in 1900, they would be worth zero by 1918 . They expropriated everything. When the communists came, when Comrade Lenin seized power.
And in Egypt, when our brother Nasser nationalized everything, my friend's family, which owned the Suez Canal, lost everything . This happens often. This is because governments are the greatest enemies of the people. I want to emphasize this. Never expect the government to do you any good. The best you can hope for is that they won't harm you.
This is a huge achievement . Paper currency remains an artificial creation, controlled by central authorities that have a constant incentive to expand the total money supply. Throughout history, every fiat currency without a physical backing has steadily lost its purchasing power and returned to its intrinsic value , which is zero.
In contrast, precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum are extremely rare and expensive to extract. Additionally, physical goods have a unique durability. Precious metals survive fires and physical destruction, remaining intact. Ordinary citizens rely on small purchases of gold as a practical reserve for emergencies.
In times of severe financial hardship, selling gold allows families to quietly secure the necessary liquidity without having to advertise their problems to their neighbors by selling major vehicles or homes. Even institutional hedge fund managers maintain modest reserves of physical bullion to protect capital from political volatility.
History proves that state institutions often become economic enemies, expropriating private capital through nationalization or excessive taxation. Ensuring long-term financial survival requires the ownership of tangible assets outside the direct control of central governments. .
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