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We have not changed our bullcase scenario for Bitcoin which is above $1 million from today's levels. Today we're a little below $90,000. So that will be more than a tenfold increase. And our conviction is high because Bitcoin is three revolutions in one. It's a technology revolution really introducing currencies native to the internet, digital currencies.
That is a revolution. It is also a global monetary system that is rules-based. That is a revolution. Bitcoin is mathematically metered to increase to 21 million units and we're closing in on 20 million units right now. So, we're moving to a point where I think scarcity value as institutions move in is going to drive the price higher.
It's 2026 and as the market prepares for what many believe could be Bitcoin's next major bull run, attention is turning to Kathy Wood and her latest outlook on crypto. With momentum steadily building and institutions quietly positioning themselves, Wood believes the market is on the verge of a major shift.
She describes this stage of the cycle as critical and says she's actively placing large bets in her portfolio ahead of what she sees coming next. Remaining firmly bullish has doubled down on digital assets after increasing her exposure during the last bare market. She views crypto and disruptive technology as some of the most compelling investment themes of the year and maintains strong conviction despite recent volatility.
Her confidence is rooted in the belief that periods of market weakness present the best opportunities for long-term investors willing to think ahead. Since Bitcoin's fall from its all-time high, the broader crypto market has struggled to regain momentum, leaving many investors waiting for a decisive recovery.
Wood, however, reassures that the longanticipated surge is still ahead. In her latest interview, she lays out her market outlook and predictions for the days and weeks to come, signaling that a powerful move may be closer than many expect. At Daily Dose Crypto, we officially partnered with BTCC, a rockolid exchange with 13 plus years of regulated proven performance across the US, Canada, and Europe.
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It's been interesting to see a much more subdued cycle. We haven't seen the burst that we normally do. One of the reasons is those who have been involved in crypto and Bitcoin specifically for the last 10 to 15 years now have learned that there is this four-year cycle. Now it just so happens there's been a four-year cycle uh two years after the having Bitcoin peaks.
And so what we believe is happening is a lot of the old-timers are taking some Bitcoin off the table because they don't want to face another down cycle, which in the early days was down 90 to 95%. I think the last one at its worst was down close to 75%. Today we're down 30 30ish a little over 30%. And we are beginning to think that institutions have been waiting to build positions, waiting for this 4-year down cycle.
And therefore, we think that the downside from here is not very significant. Just to give you a a little to dimension that a bit. If we look at what where many people think the bottom will be, they think it will be around 74,000. Now why do they think that? It is because Micro Strategy which is now called Strategy Michael Sailor's firm uh its average cost is 74,000.
So technicians always look for a marker out there to define the low. We think that institutions have been studying this and that as in this period where we might be between 74,000 and 86,000 that we will see some movement by institutions to buy into this new asset class. And the the latest evidence is that Bank of America, Meil Lynch, uh so Bank of America owns Meil Lynch is the first company to put a spot Bitcoin ETF on its platform.
And and what that means is Bank of America's clients were not allowed to build positions in Bitcoin. Well, a few weeks ago, they allowed it. And as they have been educating investors about Bitcoin, they have been informing them about this four-year cycle. So, we think that institutions are going to pick up the slack here and that we will not have a down round like the 75% we saw in the last cycle.
We do not believe Bitcoin's going to go to zero because it is a global monetary system and it is rules-based and it is good competition for fiat currencies especially in emerging markets. Now recently we've seen stable coins usurp one of the roles we thought Bitcoin would play in emerging markets. So USDT Tether and USDC Circle are really onramps into the digital asset ecosystem and are streamlining payments.
They're almost free to send. You can send very small units. And so as we've analyzed that, we thought, okay, Bitcoin is not going to be the insurance policy that stable coins are now playing against fiat currencies. But that wasn't a huge use case for us. It if we were at the extreme, our bullish case was $1.5 million.
That takes about $200,000 away. So that won't take us down to zero. Kathy Wood argues that crypto is experiencing the fastest adoption curve of any investable asset in human history. By the end of 2026, she expects more than 1.1 billion active crypto wallets, a pace of growth, she says, is almost impossible to fully grasp.
Based on decades of research, her conclusion is clear. This cycle represents the most rapid accumulation of wealth ever seen, with every data point reinforcing the same outcome. She emphasizes that liquidity is the key force driving markets. And in her view, crypto is positioned to outperform every other asset class.
For months, Cathy has warned investors that the conditions are now lining up, setting the stage for powerful parabolic moves higher in crypto prices as capital floods back into the space. We are exposed, of course, to digital gold, which is Bitcoin. But how do we think about gold in the years ahead?
I'm going to take you back to the future. Uh so when I first started in the business, Reegonomics was in full force in the early 80s and gold had just hit a peak in I believe it was 1980 uh of $850. We had the hypothesis and we were making a forecast that gold would go down and the reason was we thought the combination of excellent fiscal policy so tax cuts and deregulation along with excellent monetary policy trying to crush inflation which was in the double digits would take away an important role that gold plays which is store of value, preservation of wealth, preservation of purchasing power.
And that's exactly what happened. Gold went down from roughly $850 uh to $350 over uh I don't know if it was a decade, but it was a very long period of time. And I think we're going to see something like that in the next few years. One of the reasons gold has increased here is because many investors are worried about deficits, trade deficits and government deficits around the world and they're looking for a hedge.
This is part of the wall of worry in this market uh that has also caused worries about the AI hype. When people are worried about the stock market, they seek a hedge and gold is serving as that hedge. If we are right, uh we believe the the stock market is going to continue to move up but will favor disruptive innovation, technologically enabled disruptive innovation.
We think that is going to continue powering the stock market. We think there will be uh a lot of confusion because uh technologically enabled disruptive innovation is going to lead to uh disruption in the traditional world order. So there will be a lot of stocks that will not do well in this period.
But if you're on the right side of change, we think you'll do very well because we think uh that we're moving from a rolling recession where we've been for the last three years into a rolling recovery and then into a productivity driven boom. So, we're we think we're moving into a uh productivitydriven boom in activity.
Uh and that that will be obvious by the midterm elections in the US next year. Uh we think this administration has engineered tax policy deregulation and tariffs um tariffs getting those out of the way and moving into next year. A lot of good news. We also think inflation is going to come down surprisingly.
And so why do people hold gold? It's a hedge against inflation. If inflation is is moving down and if we're also right that the dollar is going to start moving up again, uh and then the dollar will be as good as gold, why do you need to hold gold? And you can get a double benefit if you're in the right kind of stocks in in the equity market, dollar-based stocks.
So you'll have the dollar going up and the stock uh the stocks going up. What does this mean for Bitcoin? If we're calling Bitcoin digital gold and yes, it does serve that role, but it is also the most important and the most secure asset, digital asset in this new asset class. Uh so institutions are looking at it.
It is part of a global rules-based monetary system. Uh and it's a new technology. So, we think there are other reasons to own Bitcoin. Kathy Wood believes the crypto market has entered a decisive phase with real institutional capital now driving price action. She expects this influx to fuel significant gains in the coming months, reinforcing Bitcoin's role as both a long-term asset and a hedge against currency devaluation.
Alongside this momentum would points to shifting crypto legislation and growing global reliance on digital currencies particularly in emerging markets as powerful signals that the space is becoming impossible to ignore. Looking ahead would argues that heavy investment in technology today could unlock massive growth tomorrow with decentralized finance poised to disrupt traditional financial services on a global scale.
But the big question remains, do you agree with Kathy Wood's outlook on where crypto and Bitcoin are headed from here? And do you think institutional adoption and regulation will accelerate or slow the next phase of this cycle? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. And thanks for watching.
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