저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션과 실물자산 상승 수혜를 기대하며 농산물·은·구리에 긍정적이다. 투자 원칙: 잘 아는 분야에 집중하고 잦은 매매를 피하라는 조언이다. 본인도 월가 초기 3배 수익 후 전부 잃은 경험으로 자기 리서치의 중요성을 강조한다. 미래 경제 비판: 10년 후 모두 소유 없이 행복하다는 주장(메타버스, MMT 등)은 과거에도 실패한 유토피아적 꿈이라 비판한다. 누군가는 생산하고 소유해야 하며 공산주의 실패를 예로 든다. 국가 전망: 19세기 영국, 20세기 미국이 중심이었고 21세기를 이끌 나라는 아직 보이지 않는다고 본다. 인플레이션 대응: 물가가 오르면 그 상품을 가진 쪽이 유리하다. 농산물은 수급·통화 발행 요인으로 계속 잘 될 것이라 전망한다. 은: 역사적으로 싸다는 판단이다. 고점 대비 50~60% 하락했으며 태양광·전기차 수요가 늘어 수요가 있을 것으로 본다. 구리: 전기차는 내연차보다 구리를 훨씬 많이 쓴다. 광산 투자가 오랫동안 부족했기 때문에 수요 급증으로 가격이 오를 것이라 본다. 출연자 관점: 과도한 낙관이나 단기 투기를 경계하며 장기적 실물 자산 수요에 무게를 둔다.
다듬은 글
if you want to be successful as an investor please be boring just stay with what you yourself know a lot about don't jump in and out of things if i told you you could only have 20 investments in your life you would be very very careful and you'd be very successful but elijah nobody wants to hear that everybody wants to be rich this month i want to be rich this month too but i know that if i start listening to hot tips i will be poor this month i want to repeat everybody watching this knows a lot about something if they think about it whether it's cars or fashion or sports or something just start focusing on what you know a lot about and when you see something that you know is going to work do some more research and make an investment and then send me an email and i'll i'll do research too but i started out knowing nothing i i went to i got a job on wall street because i liked the guy i knew nothing about wall street except it was in new york something bad happened in 1929 that's all i knew i didn't know there was a difference in stocks and bonds i knew they had stocks and months on wall street well i thought they were all the same thing i went there uh i was dazzled at first i thought well all of these people are older they're more experienced they're educated they must know what they're doing it didn't take me long to realize they don't know what they're doing either they don't know much more than i know so i then started learning not to listen to other people to do my own research my own work i did so and in the early days of my career i had an astonishing success i tripled my money when everybody was going bankrupt i mean it was a huge bear market and there and here i was tripling my money and i began to think i knew what i was doing you know i i thought i was smart uh i thought this was easy and then and actually i reversed my position the day the market changed i said guys boy i am really smart well six months later i lost everything i lost everything i liked it so i realized i was not so smart i realized there was a lot i did not know a lot about the markets about human beings about money so it was a shock it was not fun i had to start over and i did i all i knew to do was just keep saving my money and starting over and i did and eventually i got it right but with a lot of hard work and not listening to other people i hope you said that in 10 years we're all gonna own nothing and be happy as long as we're happy elijah who cares doesn't matter if you're happy you don't care if you own a million acres or if you're on zero if you're happy now the question though that more direct answer to your question is well if if we're all going to rent it somebody's got to own it who are we going to rent it from if uh if we're going to rent our our our dwelling our place of living somebody has to build that house someone has to own that house and we're not going to have a car i mean we're not going to own a car or a motorcycle or whatever somebody has to build it and own it or we're not going to have it so the idea that commerce is all just going to end we're all just going to go out and sit in the shade all day uh is not viable i mean somebody's got to produce the food somebody has to produce the shirts then to produce shirts you've got to have machines and somebody's got to own those machines so the machines aren't going to exist so it's a little far-fetched the way you described it and the way they describe it too it would be fabulous fabulous fabulous if none of us uh ever had to work and if we were all happy and had everything we wanted but philosophers generals lots of people have tried this for hundreds of years the communists from the mr marx said listen none of us are going to have to work we're all going to have a very very good life and all we have to do is let the government own the capital own production and everything will be great well nobody wants to be a a communist anymore and if they do they want to be a rich communist nobody wants to be a poor communist anymore and mark nobody i don't think many people want to try even try marxism anymore it's a brilliant theory brilliant brilliant theory but it didn't work so all lots of there now there's a theory of mmt which means more money today or more money tonight whatever uh you know just print it up don't worry guys just print it up and everything will be okay many of these theories dreams have been tried before so far mankind has not come up with a viable way that works but i i certainly hope that this all works that none of us have to own anything uh none of us have to have debts but elijah i will ask you again where is it going to come from where the bicycle is going to come from where is anything going to come from i read what you read i know about the metaverse i know about i read about all of this stuff and i say hooray hooray where can i how can when can i move in when can i move into this place that is going to be free we've had these theories before every time there's a big bull market a lot of people come up with dreams of how rich we're all going to be how we're not going to have to work anymore but so far elijah none of them have panned out if the this one is going to work fantastic but history shows that none of these things have ever worked um and how do we all rent things unless somebody is producing them i don't see any other country the 19th century was the century of the uk the 20th century was the century of the u.s i don't see any other country on the horizon now that will be the main country of the 21st century i'm quite open to hear any suggestions and i will examine them and research them but i don't see anybody on the horizon right now when you have inflation prices go up so if you own the things that go up you probably will benefit you will do well when they prices go up agriculture has been going doing very well since we spoke last time i don't see any reason that's not going to continue for supply demand reasons money printing reasons certainly silver is is cheap on a historic basis silver is down 50 or 60 percent from its all-time high i would suspect that there will be demand for silver solar power users silver electric vehicles used silver speaking of electric vehicles it seems we're going to have electric vehicles electric vehicles use much more copper for instance than do pet gasoline vehicles so many of the things that are happening in the world are going to cause huge increases in demand and increases in demand especially when there's no supply causes price increases i mean we haven't been opening a lot of copper mines in a long time elijah but we are now building huge numbers of electric vehicles they use copper where's the copper gunner come from mrs yellen
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