저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Jubilant Life Sciences(제약주)는 2020년 3월 코로나 폭락 후 반등했으나 과거 규제 이슈와 실적 부진으로 변동성이 컸으며, 현재 주가 800 부근에서 주간 차트상 돌파가 나타나 880~900 목표가 가능하다는 기술적 분석 영상이다. [주가 흐름] 2020년 11월 한 달간 약 17% 상승, 저점 약 680 → 종가 약 800. 연초 이후 650~640대에서 243까지 하락 후 다시 반등한 흐름을 언급. [실적·재무] 2020년 3분기 매출 약 2,375억 루피급(전년 대비 상승), 영업이익률 약 20%대 유지. 2019년 3월 분기는 일회성 대출 상환 비용으로 순이익 급감. ROE 약 17.8%, ROCE 약 15.3%, PER 약 15.9배로 다른 제약사보다 낮다고 평가. 부채는 약 4,000억 루피에서 800억 루피 미만으로 크게 축소. [지분 구조] 프로모터 지분 약 54%→50%, 외국인 투자자 지분 약 26~28%. 라케시 준준왈라 지분이 2018년 약 1.26%에서 5.74%로 증가했다고 언급. [규제 이슈] 2019년 3월 미국 FDA가 Masor 생산시설 관련 조치 가능성을 통보하여 주가가 크게 하락한 사건을 언급. [기술적 분석 및 전망] 주간 차트상 깔때기형 범위 확대 후 상승 깃발형(flag) 패턴 상단 돌파. 680~670을 지지·손절 기준으로 제시. 단기 목표 880~900, 장기적으로는 추가 신고점 가능성 언급. [리스크·조건] 현재 시장이 사상 최고 부근이라 취약하며, 전반적 조정 시 저가 매수 고려. 손절 관리 강조. 주간 차트 기준이므로 수 주~수 개월 소요 가능성 언급. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 장기 투자 가능 종목으로 보며 기본적 분석 결과에 따른 점진적 매수를 제안. 단기 과열 우려로 오늘 바로 매수는 불필요하다는 입장.
다듬은 글
Hello friends, welcome to our channel where you keep getting the latest news of the stock market. So today we are going to talk about a company from the pharmaceutical sector. Friends, currently after the Covid crash in March, the company has given good returns and there has been a strong rise in the last one month as well.
We will also see why there was a decline in the previous time and whether things have been rectified from there, whether correction has been done and a very big investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala ji also has a huge stake in this company, so we will assess everything, look at the fundamentals, see the news and also look at the charts of the company.
Before starting the video, I would like to say that those who are new to the channel should subscribe so that you keep getting the latest news and analysis of the stock market. You can see that today on 3 December 2020, the stock is trading at a price of 800. Today there is a rise above 1 and during the day you can see that the company had made a high around 834 and after that it closed at 800.
If one If we look at the chart of the month, in the month of November, when the entire market was bullish, the stock has given returns of around 17%, where we are seeing a low of around 680 and now the closing has been around 800. Talking about the year till date, you can see that it used to trade around 650-640, from there it declined to 243 and from there it has proved to be a multi-bagger, the stock has filled up two to three times and at present, we can say that there is a huge correction, after consolidation, the stock had gone up to 874 here and the low we have just seen is of 680, so after a long time a breakout has been seen, we will see the exact levels on the charts and if you look at the chart of five years, then see here, earlier the company used to trade above 900, around 950, so what happened from there that the decline started, the company had come to the level of 400 and then a revival was seen, so for that, we look at the news article of some time ago, let's take a quick briefing, then the stock has In the March quarter of Q4 FY1, the company did not deliver good results.
You can see that it was a weak quarter and the company had weak results, due to which the company's shares fell. Now, if we look at the fundamentals, then you saw a huge expense in the company's other income. That was the settlement of an old loan that the company had done this year. The company had settled the loan, so you can see that the company had seen a slight loss.
And the second region you can see is that around March 2019, Jubilant Life Sciences was given a report of some kind of official action indicated by the USFDA, that is, there was some problem at their manufacturing facility in Masor, and the US FDA had said that some action could be taken there, some action could be enforced.
So these were two to three news reports where due to this, the shares fell significantly within a year, but at present the company is reviving again. So let's see how the fundamentals of the company have been here. But if you see, the market cap is 12700 crores, the PE of the stock is 15.9, which means it is running a little lower than other pharma companies, where PE is also visible from 20 to 25, we see the book value of some companies is 375, almost two to two and a half times the book value of the stock and here the return on capital employed 15.3 is a double digit number, a very recent number is visible, the return on capital employed of 15.3 is compounded over a long period of time and the return on equity is 177.8, so here you can see the sales of the company, currently the sales of the company have been 2375 crores in the September quarter, which is much higher than the last September quarter of September 2019, and the operating profit of the company has been 486 crores, which was 4668 crores in the last September, so you can see that we have seen a good jump, we are seeing a decent jump in one quarter as well as year on year, and the operating profit margin of the company has been around 20 in the last three to four years.
You can see that the company's interest in the quarter is more than Rs 64 crore, which means the company has some debt. We will see in the future what is there in the balance sheet. You can see that the net profit of the company is Rs 224 crore. Here we were discussing the company's loan repayment. You can see that in the March 2019 quarter, the company's profit, operating profit, was Rs 350 crore, but the net profit was Rs 99 crore because the company had a loan, the one-time payment of which was Rs 241 crore.
So here you can see that a quarter is not good for the company. Also, we saw that some problems were being reported by the US FDA. So this is the reason that the company's stock had come down from Rs 950 to Rs 400, then there was revival, after that during the Covid crash it again came down to Rs 250 and now it is seen above Rs 800.
So you can see that there has been a lot of volatility in the stock in the last few times. If we talk about the balance sheet, the company has reserves of Rs 5900 crore, which have been continuously increasing. Which were around ₹2400 crores, in 2015 they have increased to ₹5900 crores, almost ₹6000 crores, the company's boroings too but if you see it is quite high, boroings are around ₹4000 crores, but you will see that in the last 6 months from March 2020 to September 2020 quarter, the company has reduced its boroings significantly, boroings have reduced to less than ₹800 crores, in the last one quarter the company is using some of its profit to pay boroings and debt, which becomes a positive thing in the long run, but at present boroings are still high, so if the company does not have one or two good quarters and has to make payments as well, then the company's results can be affected, but recently you know that the pharmaceutical sector is on a boom, so there is no such special problem visible there right now, look at the shareholding pattern, the promoter holding was around 54 per cent, which has been reduced to 50 per cent.
In 2018, the stock was also going down and from there you can see that it is almost maintained at 50.6%. If you see, the FII was at 20. In 2017, they increased it to 27 to 28 at one time and currently the closing is around 26. DDIS has less interest in the stock because it kept moving around 6. In March 2018, it has become 1.13 in 2 years.
If you talk only in public, it was at 17 in 2017 and 22.15 in September. So here, if you look at the share holding in public, you will see one name, Rakesh Radheshyam Jhunjhunwala. His holding was earlier at 1.26 around 2018, then he gradually increased it in the last quarter as well, so he has taken the holding to 5.74, that is, he has been continuously investing and in the stock for the last two to two and a half years.
So here you can see that a lot of big investors have also invested money at present. In the stock, we have also seen a good jump here. We have looked at the fundamentals of the stock. We found that the company was going through a fluctuating situation for some time. There were problems in the fundamentals of the company as well.
There was fluctuation in the stock price, but currently the company has given a good reversal in some time. So here you are looking at the weekly chart. The first thing you will notice is that we are seeing a funnel type chart where the range is getting wider and the stock has given a breakout from here.
Currently, the correction that came from 880 to around 680 has taken support here, so this stock will become a solid level. In the times to come, if you need support, a good stop loss will be around 680-670, which was a demand zone earlier as well. After that, a supply zone was formed here when the decline happened and now again a demand zone has formed.
Along with this, another thing to notice is that you will see the breakout coming from which pattern. A long-term company bounced, after that a flag pattern is seen forming. The company has done this. This trend line touched the upper band of the flag, and a major breakout was definitely seen from here.
Now, if the bullish momentum continues, it is expected that the company could test the 880 level in the coming days. Here, you can see that we have defined a range. If you look below, your stop-loss will be well below, around 680. On the upper side, you can see the target will be around 900. If the company's good performance continues, your long-term target will be well above.
There will be a consolidation here, but you will see a new high forming in an A = CD type pattern. But keep in mind that this is a weekly chart, so one candle indicates one week, so it will not happen in a day or two or a week. This may take a few weeks or a few months. But pay attention to the levels there, at which level the company is sustaining the most and where the selling pressure is coming from.
We have discussed two important levels now, so the current rally looks good. Come on high volumes, if you look at 3 billion Volume has come in around ₹880 today as well, so it 's expected that it could consolidate for a few more days. We've seen a sell-off here, so it's not necessary to buy today. You know the market has already gone up quite a bit, so if there's a major correction in the overall market to ₹34, you know all the stocks will see a slight correction, then you can buy.
But the overall sentiment is quite bullish. You can also see the stock on the daily chart. This is the flag we were talking about. If we look at the recent trading session, we've seen a major breakout from the triangle pattern, which is a positive thing. A good breakout has been seen here. Consolidation has taken place here.
From here, the same thing happens that your direct target becomes around ₹880 to ₹900 if the bullish sentiment continues. But I would like to reiterate that you should pay more attention to your stop-loss because the market is quite vulnerable right now. You can look at this stock for the long term.
It has become an investment-type stock. Now, where the rally has been strong, but The future growth will depend on the fundamentals, so do your analysis and accordingly you can move the stock forward as per your buying capacity and definitely keep an eye on the levels because if your stop loss is not hit then the higher levels will definitely come, I repeat this thing many times but in today's market it is proving to be quite true that if the market does not fall down because it is running at an all-time high then gradually the higher levels will come in the bullish stocks and in the long run the stock has the potential to give good returns, so friends this was the latest news and analysis related to Jubilant Life Sciences, if you like the video then like it and subscribe to our channel for more such videos
Comments 0