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다듬은 글
투자의 기본 원칙은 50년 전이나 지금이나 같다
i think the same rules applied 50 years ago by five years ago apply 20 years from now yeah first of all you have to know what you own whether it's a fund or a stock and you have to have a reason for it and you ought to be able to explain to an 11 year old two minutes or less why own this and this sucker's going up it's not a good reason i've tried that one it's not it doesn't work basically you look now you have three choices i think if you're investing you can put your money in the money market fund and get one seven one five one six and it's tax the 40 rate bring buy a 10-year treasury and get four or seven that's taxed in the future or you can have some equities and i think stocks over the next 10 years will do a lot better than four seven or one seven so i would have some of my money now it's up to the person's side how much do they wanna have in stock market for some people 10 is aggressive for some people 50 is the right amount it's a personal decision you can't go by the rules that if you're 25 you should be 100 if you're 45 you should be 50 if you're 60 you should be zero and it's burping a lot you know what the rules aren't people at 60 but they i hate those rules i think they're pathetic
주식은 복권이 아니라 기업의 주인이 되는 것
why are you confident that stocks will be a lot higher in 10 years well they're not lottery tickets i mean when you own a stock it's a share of a company and i think companies can make a lot more money 10 years a lot more money in 20 years and that's that's why they go up that's the only reason some companies don't do well zero hawks make a lot less money than they did 30 years ago it's a lot less but a lot more companies earning a lot more money they were and that's why stocks go up corporate props has gone up 40 fold since we're two stock markets up 40-fold
투자자들이 흔히 저지르는 실수: 재무상태표를 보지 않는 것
it's 25 years since you started running magellan you have been director of research for fidelity you've been with them since i guess 69 what are the most conspicuous mistakes you've seen investors make i think not looking at the balance sheet this mistake i've made if you look at you know if you look at a person's balance sheet you look to see what the assets see on their houses they own a house they own a car what debt they haven't take that away that's what your net worth is you should do that with a company i see i've seen investors look at companies i mean let's say you're looking at two companies they're very depressed they're reaching four dollars a share but one companies they're each losing a couple million dollars a quarter one company is 100 million cash and no debt one company has no cash and a hundred million they're about to blow taps in the second company so you and you can do this if you go through eighth grade math you get anywhere near eight and eight equals sixteen you can do this look at the company's financial position it's impossible to go bankrupt you don't have any debt i mean you get the irving g fallbrook lifetime achievement where i think they're bad manchester united
가장 큰 실수는 좋은 기업을 너무 일찍 파는 것
how did you do that when you were actively managing money you presumably were under the same pressures as other fund managers to show performance results did that incline you to sell too quickly sometimes i think my greatest mistakes are probably you know it's funny in a stock all you can lose 100 i've done that your great mistakes are selling a good company and that doubles and it triples the produce because you make a lot of mistakes since those ones that go up tenfold like almost 10 bags so my mistakes are saying oh my god this talk is too high i was wrong and you had to figure out what inning am i in this baseball game i sold toys r us way too early it went up 20 fold after they sold i did the same thing at home depot those are probably two greatest mistakes ever made
언제 팔아야 하는가: 매수 이유가 사라졌을 때
when should you sell well you ought to find out why you bought a stock and you're saying it's a single company and they're doing poorly and they're doing awful you wait till things are getting better they're doing terrific and then you sell it but with growth down you have to say walmart's fees can use that in public you could about the stock made 500 times your money you see still only in 15 percent of the united states and they could say why can't they go to 17. why can't they go 19 why can't they go to 23. so the next four decades going around the country you have to save yourself in this stock i have a 10-year story of 20 years three i'd be able to write that down and follow that that's what i do and that's your decision that's how you sell it
성장하는 기업을 이해하고 보유하라
you still buy a company you buy a company to grow and if it's a textile company or it's an electronics company software company you better understand what they do and if they do well the stock will do well no matter what happens the market if the dow jones today was a thousand or 500 you had made a lot of money mcdonald's you had made a lot of money johnson johnson you are made a lot of money july these companies earnings have gone up a lot in the last 30 years and if the market was 50 000 you would have lost money in burlington industries i recommended that in 1969 i think it's gone from 34 to 2 with no stock splits these aren't terrible well your modesty actually makes an important point which is people with the best banning averages in the world dump out a thousand i sometimes get ambi mail if you're in bear market saying so and so recommended second section it went down
승률보다 중요한 것은 손익의 비대칭
well how often did you come up with a clicker well this is a funny business you don't have to write even five times out of ten if the times you're right you make a double and triple that offsets all those times you lose twenty three percent so when you buy a cycle to say itself how much i lose and how much can i make and you wanna be able to make a lot you see stocks are risky i mean look look at how much we've lost in the t look how much less than xerox these were quality companies you know you can lose a lot in stock especially yourself how much can i make because i want to buy a stock if i'm right i'm going to make a double or trip says your own confidence if you get shaken every day i think the market's going to go up i keep calling a lot my company's like keep calling
경제 예측보다 기업 분석에 집중하라
you once said to me that you spent all your time looking at companies analyzing them as businesses and you didn't spend a lot of time worrying about the economy do you have a view on the economy now well i i look at the economy i look historically economy i don't look at the future i mean that's weather forecasting i look i look at economy backwards see what's happening and kind of looks very good to me right now housing market looks terrific and the auto market looks good the consumer looks good it's a lot of good elements to it if this is we've had nine recessions since world war ii and they've averaged usually about a two percent decline in the workforce you know it's terrible there's about a million and a half people have lost their jobs in this decline but having only been about a one percent decline in the workforce so so far it's been a mild recession has been mild the technology has been mild and telecom has been mild you know companies making fiber optics but it's been up it's been a normal recession i would never bet against the american economy it's powerful
기술주: 복잡하지만 현금 가까이 팔리는 선도기업을 본다
you were never a big fan of the technology group are you know i've actually started looking i'm a little early in these things i started looking in january and february and i've been researching the companies and they're very complex because they're they're if there's a thousand technology companies they're all a little bit different they're not like a bunch of banks they're very similar so you have to be careful i'm looking companies that are selling close to cash they're an industry leader and they're down 95 that's a very interesting correlation
일본의 장기 불황이 주는 교훈
i mean the japanese market the economy has been incredibly they had a 12-year recession but there you had a real problem with the banking system you basically had let's say average building up commercial building went from 50 million to 500 million a bank then made 110 loan against it a 550 million dollar loan then the building went back to 50 they're stuck with a 450 million dollar loan and the government never got taxes they'd actually raised taxes i mean they did everything wrong and the companies didn't cut costs so they just sort of sat there hope things would get better we our companies act fast they start getting cause real quickly and and our government is fortunate this is rare obviously we went into this recession running a service first time ever this isn't supposed to be in our company we should run services in the good times and then the bad times we run deficits well guess what it's working they didn't have that in japan in japan now it's wasted 12 years i don't think i said it's all i don't just look me at all in japan we're near we're starting to get better already
투자자의 투자기간이 너무 짧아졌다
here lou asked your question about sort of the typical investor mistakes and when you started in the business i know the average investor held mutual funds from 16 17 years now it's down to less than two years do you think that's one of the problems if time rises got too short well i think also what they might they have to say what do i want do i need the money in a year i need my five years you're a terrible investor you need money a year if you need it for college to say if it's there a wedding you're not to be a good investor then you have to do some homework and say should i have 10 growth funds that's silly you say what do i want i want two or three girl funds what's my mix that i like and you want to say is aggressive you know some people aggressive is 50 so i would say people and some people might want to have foreign funds it's like a menu in a restaurant they should look over and decide what they like and then stay with them if one group does well for two or three years the next bunch of money they add to maybe they should have the group that's underperforming over time different categories work out to be about the same so you get which side if you're all in one area there's poorly for three years you say get me out of that you go into the mother area and that does badly for three years you could be in it forever and then make money
지금 시장은 과거 약세장과 닮았다
peter does this market remind you of any that you've been through before i would say 90 the 90 bear market is very similar in many ways i mean we just think saddam hussein takes over kuwait and we sent 500 000 troops to saudi arabia all the people are saying to me iraq's the third largest army was made about the vietnam we had a recession we always banged some trouble right now our banks were terrific mage possible so that was a very scary environment and we defaults i mean it was an ugly environment everybody was afraid so i think that was a very similar market and i think 81 82 was ugly too we had you know 20 prime rate doubles in inflation doubling unemployment so those are scary markets and then top it all off the 7374 market did you remember the nifty 50 we had that we had it in technology stocks so we had 95 declines and you know we combined three markets into one special case spent very fast
재정적자와 달러 약세는 긍정적 신호인가
we have less than a minute left those those who were who are less sanguine about the economy than you've just expressed often cite the recent declines in the dollar and the shift from surplus to deficit as negatives you seem to indicate that they're positive twice well i think i think the government running at the deficit is terrific that's why it should work i mean when they're running a 200 billion dollar surplus which they were they're taking 200 billion out of the economy now the government's running a hundred billion dollar deficit it's pumping 100 billion in it's a cushion so you don't see a double dip recession i don't i can't break the future that's a healthy thing that buffers in the economy we've had 90 sessions we've got every one of them the system works
겁먹은 투자자에게 드리는 한마디
if you could give one sentence of advice to scared investors right now what would it be i think you ought to see some kids you know hiring a higher six-year-old just watch them they don't know who alan greenspan is they know about the treatment yield curve they're optimistic about the future we'll be fine for the next 30 40 years let's hope you like peter courage and persistence at work in the past
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