저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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2016년 2월 영상. 결론: 연초 시장 하락의 원인은 연준이 아니라 달러 강세와 상품가격 붕괴이며, 금은 장기적으로 크게 오를 것이라는 주장. [연준 금리인상 논쟁] 출연자는 12월 연준 금리인상 이후 2주간 S&P500과 금이 보합이었고 달러는 유로 대비 약 3% 강세였다며 연준 원인론을 반박. [원유 논쟁] 사우디·OPEC의 초과생산과 저장시설 한계를 근거로 원유 하락을 생산 요인으로 보는 질문에 대해, 출연자는 모든 원자재가 하락 중이며 생산은 배럴당 5~10달러 정도의 영향일 뿐이고 달러가 전환되면 원유 포함 모든 상품이 반등한다고 주장. [금 전망] 금은 300달러가 다음 지지선이며 연준이 금리인하와 QE4를 단행하면 크게 상승해 과거 고점을 돌파하고 5,000달러까지 갈 수 있으나 수년이 걸릴 수 있다고 전망. [시장 전략] 연초부터 S&P500과 원유 반등 시 매도(랠리 매도)를 권고했다고 주장. 상대 출연자는 구체적 매매 아이디어 부족을 지적하며 공방. [리스크·조건] 연준이 금리인하·QE4를 하지 않으면 금 상승 시나리오는 성립하지 않음. 금 목표 기간은 2016년 말 기준 명확한 수치 없이 장기. [출연자 전망 요약] 금: 단기 300달러 지지 후 장기 상승(5,000달러 가능). 원유·S&P500: 랠리 시 매도 권고. 달러: 강세 전환 시 상품 동반 하락, 이후 반전 시 상품 동반 상승.
다듬은 글
um but you know never say never scottt Nation do you have a question for Peter well I do and Peter you and I disagree completely on whether or not the FED is responsible for what we've seen uh since the beginning of the year and the reason I think that it has absolutely nothing to do with the FED is that for the two weeks immediately after the fed's December meeting where they rais rates for them in eight years raising by 25 basis points for the two weeks after that the S&P was unchanged gold was unchanged and the dollar was actually higher against the euro currency for about three qu by about three4 of 1% and so let's take a look at a specific Market it's usually easier to easier to distill broad Trends by looking at single markets let's talk about crude oil because you say that the collapse in crude oil prices has everything to do with the dollar and nothing to do with production but I don't understand that because Saudi Arabia and OPEC in general they have produced more than their quota for now 20 months in a row and if they're if they're producing more than their quota and if we're nearing capacity of storage at pushing Oklahoma and if crude oil is down by nearly 23s then over the past year then how in the world can you say that the crude oil story is a dollar story okay let me take the first part of your question first or and then I'll I'll get to crud oil so markets don't immediately do what they're going to do sometimes they have a head fake I don't know if you've ever been a Trader but often times markets do the opposite of what they're going to do initially to fool people they suck in some Longs they clear out some shorts so sometimes that happens before you get the real move you get the head fake kind of like a running back juking left and then running right so that's what the market did this isn't a coincidence Peter hang on one second if somebody knew that the FED raising rates was going to pressure the stock market why would they fool around why wouldn't they have just sold it on the afternoon of the 16th of December the next day why would they fool around for two weeks and let it go sideways because they didn't know that remember what the attitude was when the FED raised rates it's great it's not going to hurt the stock market it's it's it's validating the confidence that the FED has the economy is strong people were wedded to this ridiculous narrative and it fell apart and you know I remember the day after the rate hike I was on this show and you guys were making fun of me because the market was up and I said give it time it's not in one day I knew the market would tank we were making fun of you because you said it was impossible you said it was impossible say it was impossible for and you said their next Q4 here you absolutely said that we can we can revise history but we have it on tape no let me tell you what I said I said it was improbable that the FED would raise rates because it was impossible to raise rates without pricking the bubble in the stock market and pushing the economy to recession so the Fed was actually D enough was you all I said was that Q4 is coming weing everything wrong stop making fun of me you said that if the FED raised rates the stock market would go up at 10 you said the dollar would go said since the beginning of the year Anthony granti and I have both been saying often together on this show sell rallies in both the S&P and in crude oil so people who have watched Futures now and made those trades it worked out really well but the last time and and Brian stutman asked you for specific trade ideas that would make money if what you suggested was going to happen indeed happened and you f bustard and didn't come up with any trade idea other than that how does that bu you to because you you happen to sell pet you happen to sell gold so congratulations you continue to scare people into buying what you're selling but how about another make money if you're right going Scott Scott you know I'm helping a lot more people your other question about oil 25,000 Peter let me ask you this guys because we are running out of time here and I do have to move let me finish let me just ask you what your target is for 2016 2016 where do you see gold going yeah I'm going to answer the question on oil though please make it quick all commodity prices are down okay all commodity prices are down not just oil it's not about production production might be responsible for five or10 do a barrel it's the dollar and when the dollar turns all Commodities are going to turn including oil okay answer my question regarding Golds can you give me a Target for 2016 higher I think once it gets through, the next stop IS300 look it's going a lot higher I don't know exactly how much higher but it's going a lot higher and when If the Fed does what I think it's going to do if they cut rates and launch qe4 it's going much much higher it's going to take out the old high and yes we're going to get the 5,000 I don't know if it's going to take a few more years but it's going to get there and it's probably going higher
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