저자: 미상 · 외국인
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미국 달러의 기축통화 지위가 흔들리고 있으며, 사우디가 중국에 원화로 석유를 판매할 가능성이 제기되어 달러 수요와 미 국채 수요에 부정적 영향이 우려된다는 내용이다. 사우디의 위안화 석유 결제 검토는 월스트리트저널 보도를 인용한 것으로, 중국이 사우디 석유 수출의 25% 이상을 구매하고 있어 영향이 크다고 설명한다. 과거 페트로달러 체제는 1974년 닉슨 행정부와 사우디의 합의 이후 석유를 달러로만 판매해 온 구조로, 이것이 달러 수요와 미 재정적자 지출을 떠받쳐 왔다고 설명한다. 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 이후 미국이 일부 러시아 은행을 SWIFT에서 배제한 것이 달러 무기화의 예로 언급되며, 이것이 역풍(blowback)을 부를 수 있다고 주장한다. 중국은 미 국채 최대 외국 보유국이며, 중국이 달러 자산을 줄이고 연준의 국채 매입이 축소되면 미 정부가 지출 축소 또는 화폐 발행 확대(부채 monetize)를 해야 한다는 시나리오를 제시한다. 미국 정책당국이 달러 무기화를 신중히 고려하지 않으면 달러가 흔들릴 수 있다는 것이 진행자의 결론이며, 달러 하락에 베팅하기 전 유로/달러 전략을 참고하라고 안내한다. 다만 사우디의 위안화 결제는 '그저 말일 수도 있다'는 단서도 함께 달려 있다. 이 영상은 2022년 3월 20일 게시된 것으로, 대상 자산 중 달러·환율 관련 방향성은 '달러 하락 가능성'으로 언급되나 구체적 기간·목표가는 없다.
다듬은 글
greetings to everyone on my channel today i would like to show you a recent interview with peter schiff where he talks about the situation in the world of the american dollar to all those who trade on the forex market this will be valuable information you can trade gold bitcoin stocks correctly last week i asked the question is the us undermining the dollar's credibility it appears the answer is yes in another blow for dollar dominance saudi arabia is reportedly considering pricing at least some of its chinese oil sales in yuan according to the wall street journal the move would dent the us dollars dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world's top crude exporter toward asia the petrodollar serves as a crucial support for the us dollar the majority of global oil sales are priced in dollars this ensures a constant demand for the greenback every country needs dollars to buy oil this helps support the us government's borrow and spend policy with its massive deficiency as long as the world needs dollars for oil the federal reserve can keep printing dollars to monetize the debt zero hedge explained how the process works one of the core staples of the past 40 years and an anchor propping up the dollar's reserve status was a global financial system based on the petrodollar this was a world in which oil producers would sell their product to the us and the rest of the world for dollars which they would then recycle the proceeds in dollar denominated assets and while investing in dollar denominated markets explicitly prop up the usd as the world reserve currency and in the process backstop the standing of the us as the world's undisputed financial superpower saudi arabia has sold oil exclusively for dollars since 1974 under a deal with the nixon administration if the saudis shift away from the dollar and sell oil for yuan it would be bad news for dollar dominance and good news for the chinese currency according to the wsj china buys more than 25 percent of saudi oil exports if priced in yuan those sales would boost the standing of china's currency the saudis are also considering including yuan denominated futures contracts known as the petro uan in the pricing model of saudi arabian oil company known as aramco china and saudi arabia have been talking about yuan-based oil contracts for six years but saudi arabia's frustration with the us has apparently accelerated those talks according to the wsj the saudi government is increasingly unhappy with decades oldest security commitments to defend the kingdom along with the biden administration's attempt to reinstitute the iran nuclear deal the chinese rolled out yuan-based oil contracts in 2018 they have been modestly successful but haven't dented the dollar's dominance if saudi arabia begins doing business in yuan it would be a kick in the gut for the dollar and it would be a boon for china the chinese would love to limit their exposure to the dollar needless to say us officials are not pleased with this development a senior us official called the idea of the saudis selling oil to china in yuan highly volatile and aggressive and not very likely calling the move aggressive is ironic given how the us has used the dollar as a weapon for decades but this could be nothing but talk selling oil in yuan would come with some risks to the saudi economy the saudi riyal is pegged to the dollar prince muhammad's aides have reportedly warned him of unpredictable economic damage should the country hastily start selling millions of barrels of oil for yuan regardless it's no surprise that the chinese and saudis have ramped up talks in recent weeks the weaponization of the dollar has been on full display after russia invaded ukraine the us cut some russian banks including the central bank off from the swift payment system swift stands for the society for worldwide interbank financial telecommunication the system enables financial institutions to send and receive information about financial transactions in a secure standardized environment since the dollar serves as the world reserve currency swift facilitates the international dollar system swift in dollar dominance gives the us a great deal of leverage over other countries but that leverage depends on the dollar's role as the reserve currency it shouldn't shock us that we're seeing blowback from the us using greenbacks as a foreign policy carrot and stick a drop in the demand for dollars would be bad news for us government that depends on dollar demand to fund its out-of-control spending imagine a world in which the chinese didn't need dollars china ranks as the biggest foreign holder of us debt if it continues to divest itself of dollars who will pick up the slack the federal reserve has been buying treasury's handover fist for the last two years keeping its big fat thumb on the bond market but it's tapering purchases and supposedly planning on shrinking its balance sheet if global demand for treasuries drop precipitously and it would in a world without the petrodollar the us government would either have to drastically cut spending or the fed would have to continue printing money to monetize the debt even if this is nothing but talk it underscores the fact that the dollar is on shaky ground us policymakers would be wise to consider future dollar weaponization carefully so how can we use this information to make a profit i advise you to look at my strategic view on the euro dollar pair before betting on the fall of the dollar the hint is in the center of your screens put likes subscribe to the channel share this video with friends i wish everyone success in your investments
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