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uh and in fact you get very little media coverage of Golds uh you know run to record highs even the financial media doesn't really pay attention to it you know they'll talk about Bitcoin every day even though it hasn't made a new high since March so it's been trading sideways for six months yet every day the financial media obsesses over Bitcoin uh yet every day they ignore gold I mean it's picked up maybe a little bit but it's still slow compared to you know what it had been in in years past and and it's slower than you would expect given where the price of gold is you would think there would be more enthusiasm in the general public for gold and that there'd be more buying but that's not happening uh and in fact you get very little media coverage of Golds uh you know run to record highs even the financial media doesn't really pay attention to it you know they'll talk about Bitcoin every day even though it hasn't made a new high since March so it's been trading sideways for six months yet every day the financial media obsesses over Bitcoin uh yet every day they ignore gold when gold is far more significant and it's making new highs something Bitcoin uh isn't doing it in fact bitcoin's high in terms of gold was three years ago uh so Bitcoin is lower by about 35% in terms of gold than it was three years ago there's a you know the big advertisers I mean they're buying off everybody they're buying the politicians they're buying the financial media they bought off Wall Street you know now Wall Street has a vested interest in crypto because they're running Bitcoin ETFs and ethereum ETFs uh but you know eventually they they you know they they run out of the ability to to perpetuate the the pyramid and it collapses now I mean very slowly I mean the media I think is still very much married to the the the status quo and you know the the the talking points of we have a sound economy everything is good we know the FED is these guys are geniuses and they're getting rid of inflation and you know you know just buy and hold everything is great about the stock market and the B market uh so I think it's going to take a while before they they can seeed the opposite is true I mean even now you know that bond yields are rising the yield on a 10-year Treasury and a 30-year treasury is now risen by 50 basis points since the FED cut short-term rates by 50 basis points and the media attributes that rise to the stronger economy which is not what's happening the economy is weak we just got one jobs number that you know people interpreted as being strong when it really wasn't but the rest of the economic data still confirms that it's a weak economy the reason that interest rates are rising is because the FED has made a mistake in cutting rates uh and I think the Bond investors are starting to figure that out gold investors figured it out a while ago that's why gold is moving uh to new highs so we're going to have uh more inflation because the FED is cutting when they should have continued hiking and the economy is going to weaken so we're going to have even bigger budget deficits and the FED is ultimately going to finance them by returning to QE and in fact the higher long-term interest rates go the more pressure is put on the FED to do something to stop the rise and the only thing they can do is QE yeah I mean it makes more sense that the economy is weak and that's why the deficits are so high because the deficits were this High and the economy was strong just imagine where they would be if the economy was weak the reality is it's already weak you know you you the numbers just don't confirm it because of the way they're calculated but they that you can't lie about the tax receipts they are what they are you can't lie about the government what they're spending so the national debt is going up I mean they do lie about the budget deficits that's why you can't look at the official deficits you if you want to know what the real deficits are you have to look at how much the national debt went up in that given year so the government will say oh we had a $ 1.8 trillion dollar deficit for this fiscal year but then you'll notice that the national debt Rose by three trillion in that same fiscal year and so that extra 1.2 trillion was was money that the government spent that they didn't have they just put it off budget so they didn't count it um but you know if you look at the the rate that which the the debt is the debt is rising um if the economy was strong now can just just imagine where those those numbers would be but I think it's just that the the the other numbers that are the lies like the unemployment rate the unemployment rate is much higher than what the government claims the inflation rate is higher than the government claims the only number that's lower is the GDP growth I think the actual number is probably closer to double the official number and I don't obviously have real numbers CU I don't you know I don't keep track of these prices myself um but you know I know how the CPI is calculated and the adjustments that they make to the baskets and and the CPI was kind of reverse engineered decades ago to come up with a low number just like the unemployment rate you know they they they they constantly change who's qualified as unemployed so they have a lot of unemployed people that don't make it into the statistics so they don't have to count them that doesn't mean they're not unemployed it just means they're not being counted in the official unemployment rate but they're still there they're not you know they don't have a job they're not paying taxes uh you know and so we have these these these big deficits because we actually have a lot more unemployed people then are officially acknowledged by the government I mean I think Trump on balance is better for the markets than Harris but the markets are way overpriced you know regardless of who becomes president obviously if corporate tax rat go up that's worse for them than if rates go down um but the big underlying problems are are there and I think we have a debt crisis and an inflation crisis regardless of the outcome of the election the only difference in my mind is how they might respond to it not that I know that Trump is going to do the right thing I don't it's just that I'm confident that Harris will do the wrong thing and uh allow failures and you know default fs and restructurings and it's to accept the pain uh and and then you know move past it and and allow the free market to purge the economy of the excesses and the malinvestments that have been the consequence of Decades of artificially low interest rates and all the mistakes that that has resulted in you know from a lack of savings to an excessive amount of borrowing and consumption and speculation you know Trump likes to point to the trade deficits and talk about all the countries that have a surplus with us uh as if it's their fault and somehow they're um you know it's it's at our expense that they that they have all these surpluses but the reality is we're relying on those Imports because we're not able to produce the products ourselves uh and even if we could produce them we can't produce them at a price that anybody can afford to buy and so we're we're then relying on on foreign production which has been propping up the economy and not only have they been propping up our economy with their stuff they've been propping it up with their savings they've been loaning us the money that we haven't saved so that we can continue to live beyond our means we you know we've been reliant on the productivity of of the rest of the world and the savings of the rest of the world it'd be better if we were self-reliant it would be better if we had a viable economy where we produced uh the stuff that we consumed I mean we don't have to produce everything that we consume because we can still trade but we have to produce something that we can export uh to import we can't just rely on printing a press and have a service sector economy uh where we import what we don't produce and pay for it by printing you know dollars um I mean it's great while it lasts because you know you get to you know get all the benefits uh without the costs right you get all these Goods without having to produce them um you know you don't have to do the investment ments build the factories deal with the pollution right you could just let some other country deal with that and just accept the goods as they're delivered on a ship you know the dollar is going to go down the dollar is going to go down I mean so far the dollar is holding up fact it's gone up about 4% recently here as you know people have seen Rising bond yields and interpreted that as meaning that the economy must be stronger than we thought and maybe the FED won't cut as much as we thought but once again they're wrong Rising bond yields have nothing to do with the economy good it's because uh inflation is going to be higher it's because debt is going to be higher you know the fact that all these world leaders you know you've got you know major countries that are there in in in Russia you know thumbing their nose at the us because the US is saying we got to sanction Russia nobody can do business with Russia yet everybody you know they're all showing up they they they could have held the brick Summit in in in India they could have held it in China you know they they could have gone and held it in you know the United Arab Emirates or South Africa or Egypt or what any of these other countries but no they're holding it in Russia and that's I I don't think that's an accident they're they're sending a message that you know they don't care about the sanctions a default y yeah I mean the reason I brought that up is I you know was listening to uh Paul tutor Jones talk about why you know we have too much debt and and so we have to inflate it away we have to create inflation so that we can bring down the level of the debt relative to our nominal GDP so if GDP keeps going up because of inflation then we could bring down the debt as a percentage of GDP and make it manageable and I don't think that is the the ideal approach because in order to do that we have to perpetuate the source of the problem his advocacy is for the FED to continuously hold interest rates artificially low below the of inflation so to have negative interest rates and to keep printing money uh doing more QE and that's just more of the problem we need much higher interest rates and I understand that we have too much debt for that there's no way that the debt can be serviced at a much higher interest rate but that is not a reason to keep interest rates suppressed because now you're exacerbating the the imbalances that underly the the the economy so my solution is if we have too much debt then we need borrowers to default so that we can eliminate a lot of that debt interest rates have to go up you know so if that means that certain debtors go bankrupt then so be it uh and even including the US government I would rather have the US government default on the treasury debt and restructure it I mean we don't have to screw everybody completely and say Hey you bought a US Treasury you're going to get zero we don't have to do that right we could say look you know we're going to give everybody 40 cents on the dollar so yeah you loaned us a million dollars we ain't going to pay you back a million dollars we don't have the money uh uh what we'll pay you back $400,000 you know or what we could do is we could do something like this we can say you bought a US treasury bond a 30-year us treasury bond and you're coupon is 4% we're going to honor that coupon but we're going to oh no excuse me you bought a a a uh a one-year treasury bill and it had a 4% or you bought a two-year that had a 4% coupon we're not going to default we're going to pay you 4% but we're not going to pay you your principal in two years we're going to pay it in 30 years right or 50 years and and and so now the value of that Bond collapses because now it's a long-term Treasury but and interest rates would have gone way up but the government won't have to worry about how the rising rates will impact that Bond because they've locked that low rate in um so but people might think well this is not fair people bought us treasuries and if there's AA some kind of default or restructuring people who bought us treasuries are going to lose money yes but if we just create inflation instead they lose purchasing power so they end up in the same place I just think that if we take the approach of inflating the debt away that we're actually going to impose even greater losses real losses on our creditors than what they would be hit with if we restructured with you know a a partial default where they got back you know a haircut on on on on what they loaned and in the meantime we wouldn't be doing additional damage to the economy because we need higher interest rates to encourage savings which would Finance capital investment so we can produce more stuff here ourselves and you know have a more vibrant economy but we're carrying so much debt that we can't get there unless we get rid of the debt tutor Jones wants to inflate it away I I I would rather it just get defaulted away that's more honest and I think it's actually better for the creditors and it's much better for the economy of course if I was going to talk my book and I've got a very similar investment strategy to put Paul tutor Jones minus the Bitcoin inflation is much better for my strategy and the reason that I'm betting on inflation is because that's the politically expedient path I don't expect politicians to do the right thing I expect them to do the wrong thing and that is inflation investment lessons one don't rely solely on media coverage for investment decisions shift points out that despite gold reaching record highs it receives minimal media attention compared to assets like Bitcoin which haven't made new highs in months this suggests investors should conduct independent research rather than basing decisions on media coverage which may be influenced by advertising interests and popular narratives two look Beyond official economic statistics shiff emphasizes That official government statistics like unemploy M rates inflation rates and budget deficits may not tell the complete story he notes that while official deficit numbers might show one figure the actual increase in national debt is often much larger investors should look at multiple data points and indicators such as tax receipts and actual debt increases to get a more accurate economic picture three understand the structural economic risks shiff highlights significant structural economic challenges that affect investment decisions he explains how the US economy has become overly reliant on Imports and foreign savings while accumulating excessive debt levels that may not be sustainable at higher interest rates he warns about the risk of continued inflation due to monetary policy decisions his analysis suggests investors should position their portfolios with these long-term structural risks in mind rather than focusing solely on short-term Market movements
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