저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 관세, 특히 중국 145% 관세는 전략적 실수이며 소기업과 공급망에 타격을 준다. 관세를 10~20%로 낮추거나 일시정지하라고 조언. 관세 충격과 예측 불가능성이 미국 자산의 자본비용(국채 금리 프리미엄)을 높일 수 있고, 37조 달러 부채에서 25bp는 큰 비용이라고 경고.
다듬은 글
So liberation day I think we were all excited when he announced reciprocal tariffs was only when that chart went up and the calc and the calculation of reciprocal came back with a number you know a cube of the of the expected uh you know sort of tariff rate and you know what we kind of have to remind ourselves about Trump whether is this his dealings with uh universities or his dealings with uh you know other countries is he has a certain negotiating style I guess I would describe it uh which is very aggressive asked for uh asked for a lot uh and uh also he promised that if a country retaliated that he would retaliate even further and that's how we got to 145% tariffs uh with China.
Um so I think he sort of made his point in a very significant way. I think the world has had the opportunity to experience what the impact of effectively shutting down trade with China will mean u both for China and for US businesses and the US economy. I think he sort of made a similar point kind of more broadly with other countries.
Uh I think the pause was a very good idea. Uh and I think uh you know the ability to use this pause to make you know the the base the beginnings of deals with other countries I think could head us in the right direction. Um, the point I made over the LA over the weekend and and kind of tried to make it a little simpler today is that I think keeping tariffs at 145% with China is a mistake for for many reasons, but even from a negotiating perspective, it's critically important in a negotiation that you are in the strongest possible position.
And 145% tariff uh is going to have a very negative effect. It's already having a negative effect uh on all businesses that in any way source, you know, product uh in China. Uh in particular, smaller businesses that aren't going to warehouse huge amounts of product. Not that many companies do at this point in time.
You know, imagine the Omaha toy retailer, right? And that sources probably nearly 100% of their products in China. They cannot afford to buy inventory that costs, you know, 145% more. um and nor are they going to be able to raise their prices uh to a level that will enable them to to remain profitable.
This is going to be a it's putting a huge strain on small companies uh and also has a a negative effect on our economy. So my advice to the president, you know, pause the China tariffs or take them down to 10 or 20%. Um and then actually kind of the balance of power in the negotiation comes back to us.
And the reason for that is the shock of the tariffs has really caused, you know, every CEO, every owner of a business that has sourced, you know, a meaningful percentage of their product in China is doing everything they can right now to find alternative sources of supply. And the longer that China uh sort of doesn't make a trade deal with the United States, the higher the probability is that everyone leaves.
Uh and that has a potentially long-term and devastating effect uh on the Chinese economy. by taking the tariffs down soon takes the pressure off of our companies, our economy, puts the sort of uh negotiating power even more so in in the president's favor and I think that accelerates uh an outcome. The risk of all of this is I would say the shock of the tariffs and the shock of the the Trumpian approach here uh is that uh you know with the the potential is to kind of destabilizing sort of the the economic and in some sense the global world order causing a loss of trust in the United States as a trading partner over the long term.
Uh you know that kind of people do not like to see that kind of extreme unpredictability. um when you see extreme unpredictability cost of capital in general rises. So you know people charge would argue they don't want to receive a higher premium on US treasuries. They want to receive a higher premium on investments in US equities.
And you know the unknown is this sort of you know even if we resolve this and we resolve this reasonably quickly and we do get the benefit of a of a pause uh that gives us time to negotiate deals. Will there be a persistent cost? Right? You can save money on tariffs and you could end up in a worse place if our cost of capital uh our equity and debt cost of capital are are the the yield we need to you know uh uh price our treasuries at is higher.
You know with $ 37 trillion of debt, you know, 25 basis points, you know, is a lot of money. Um, and so that's a vulnerability that we need to think
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