“Only 1% of Investors Do This Right” - Bill Ackman | Stocks | Investment

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변동성이 큰 시장에서는 헤드라인에 흔들리지 말고 장기 현금흐름과 기업의 지속가능한 경쟁우위에 집중해야 한다. 부채 없이 투자하고 현금 여력을 두며, PER보다 자유현금흐름을 중시하라. AI 시대의 파괴적 혁신 예측이 중요하며, 변동성은 우량기업을 싸게 살 기회가 된다.

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01. And what does it take now to be a successful value investor? Sure. Well, I think you're entirely right, Celita, that so much has changed in the last year. Seems like it's very hard to get away from your desk, as Mr. Buffett would say, and go get a Pepsi uh without missing a whole bunch of tweets or headlines.

02. Uh and so the markets are incredibly volatile as we all know. And for I actually think very good reasons. There's a lot of policies that are changing dramatically. A lot of changes in leadership have happened with the election. A lot of uncertainty about the state of the economy, about what the Federal Reserve will or won't do.

03. Um, and I think at times like this, what I remind myself of is ultimately when thinking about investing, it's very important. While of course we need to pay attention to the headlines and understand are there significant changes that will have long-term impacts on the economy or businesses that we're looking at ultimately thinking about the business as a present value of the future stream of cash flows and really trying to understand competitive advantages what growth trends will look like.

04. I think a world of volatility presents a lot of opportunities for people who can think long term about their businesses. Uh but it's very easy to forget that in a market that seems to fluctuate. And so I think just rereading some of the Berkshire letters, really thinking through about the principles that the market is ultimately a weighing machine in the long term, but it certainly feels more now than it I think used to in the past.

05. Uh that it's a voting machine and and remembering, you know, which game you're really trying to play. Um so I think that to me has been the biggest takeaway in a volatile market is thinking really about long-term value and really what the value of the business is because there's so much fluctuation uh on a daily or even an hourly basis lately.

06. Yeah. Uh, what I would add to Ryan is it's a huge reminder that I think the most important thing we can learn from Mr. Buffett is owning super high quality businesses and trying to pick businesses where it doesn't matter what's going on in the world, the business will still sort of power through. Whether it's a tariff, whether it's a pandemic, whether it's the Fed raising rates, lowering rates, find the business that's relatively immune and put yourself in a position where you're never forced to sell.

07. So don't borrow a bunch of money. Don't be investing your last dollar. Um but if you own the great business um you know uh it it doesn't matter much. So you know what we try to do is find what we think of as the truly great durable uh franchise. So read Michael Porter's book competitive advantage. It's got this five forces framework.

08. It's a very good way to think about the forces that impact a business and then try to contemplate um yeah this is the most important thing. People focus too much on PE ratio trying to build a model. It's more about what is the company's durable competitive advantage. How much cash will it generate over time?

09. How capital intensive is it? Uh you know how protected is it from you know a couple of students leaving uh an elite university renting a garage. There has to be a garage and and and from there building something that can displace you. It's about predict. You know, the hardest thing is figuring out what might disrupt in a world of AI, in a world of what will be a massive acceleration in uh I would say idea and company and software creation.

10. If you think about software used to be you had to be a software engineer to write software that's changing and so the the degree of creativity there a lot of super creative people who come up with great ideas but don't have the first clue on how to write a piece of software to address whatever the issue is.

11. So, we're going to have a lot more disruption and trying to be able to predict that as sort of a key. And then I would say, you know, to Ryan's point on the margin, volatility then becomes your friend. You learn about a bunch of great businesses. A lot of other people often figure out they're great.

12. And then every once in a while, uh nothing to do with the business, but it's a it's a Trump tweet. It's a it's a real something that has significant economic effect. And the entire market goes down. Your company goes down about the same amount, but the enduring business value protects it. That's a great opportunity for you.

13. Bill Lackman's advice for value investing today is simple but powerful. Forget chasing hype and instead focus on building real wealth. Step one, buy super highquality businesses. These are companies with durable advantages, strong brands, and a history of consistent growth. Step two, don't borrow to invest.

14. Debt can amplify risk and force you to sell at the worst possible time. Step three, keep some cash ready. When the market crashes or prices drop unexpectedly, that cash becomes your secret weapon. Step four, don't obsess over just P ratio. A low P does not always mean cheap and a high P always does not mean expensive.

15. Instead, focus on companies that actually generate cash. Steady, predictable, free cash flow that can fund growth and reward shareholders. Bill Lackman's approach is clear. Patience, quality, and liquidity that beat speculation every time. In value investing, your best returns often come from waiting for the right pitch and swinging hard when it comes.