저자: LesliePicker/제이미다이먼 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 다이먼은 연준 독립성을 옹호하고 연내 금리 인하를 전망했으며, 사모신용에는 리스크가 있지만 반대하지 않는다는 입장이다. 연준·금리 관련: 다이먼은 파월 연준 의장을 전문가로 평가하고 연준의 독립성이 중요하다고 강조했다. 그는 단기금리를 낮추는 것이 장기금리(10년물)를 반드시 낮추지는 않으므로 신중해야 한다고 말했다. 경제는 약 4~5년간 연착륙 상태이며, 인플레이션이 아직 2% 목표에 도달하지 못했지만 둔화되면 연준이 곧 금리를 인하할 가능성이 크다고 전망했다. 관세·트럼프 행정부 관련: 다이먼은 트럼프 대통령과 최근 여러 차례 만났다고 밝혔다. 관세는 초기보다 온건하고 신중하게 설계되었으며, 15% 수준은 감당 가능하다고 평가했다. 일부 제조업이 미국으로 돌아올 수 있고 기업 수출에 도움이 될 수 있어 지금까지는 '괜찮다(so far so good)'고 보았다. 사모신용 관련: 다이먼은 사모신용에 장단점이 있으며 반대하지 않는다고 했다. 다만 신용 문제는 언젠가 드러날 것이므로 대출 제공에 신중해야 한다고 경고했다. JP모건이 고객에게 선택지를 주기 위해 사모신용 사업을 하고 있다고 설명했다. CNBC 패널 논평: Josh는 규제 이후 주요 은행이 떠난 시장에 은행들이 다시 참여하고 있으며, 자산관리 고객이 사모신용 펀드로 유입되어 수수료를 챙기고 있다고 분석했다. 그는 레버리지 확대와 리스크 증가를 우려했다. 다른 패널은 사모신용이 상위 초고액자산가에서 일반 투자자의 401k로 내려가는 것에 유동성 측면의 우려를 표했다. 사모신용 운용사들은 거래 수익과 M&A(예: Figma 상장) 덕분에 돈을 벌고 있다고 언급되었다. 투자 관련 직접 언급 종목: 없음. 대상 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Let's now move over to our Leslie Picker who joins our joins us fresh off our exclusive sitdown with JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond. Leslie, hey Frank. Yeah, we covered a lot of ground with Jamie Diamond here in Charlotte. I asked him about President Trump's latest attacks on Fed Chair Powell. I think Jay Pal is a professional.
I think independence is important. I think actually independence keeps interest rates lower if you actually look through the history of interest rates a little bit. uh and just lowering short-term rates doesn't necessarily have the effect you want on 10-year rates and uh we should be a little cautious.
The president gets a chance to pick a new Fed chair in like eight months from now. So, um I think they're kind of doing the right thing. Diamond added that given the macro environment, he thinks that the Fed will cut rates soon. The economy's, you know, it's been chugging along. We've been in that soft landing now for four or five years.
You know, inflation still hasn't hit 2%, 2 and a half or 27 now we look at it. And I think, you know, if inflation comes down, the economy continues to do well, they'll probably reduce rates shortly. I also asked him about the news that he's had several meetings in recent months with President Trump after years of tensions between the two.
Diamond said it's his job to make the country better and help, noting that both they and the administration quote reach out all the time. And on the cusp of the tariff deadline, Diamond said they've been quote greatly moderated and that people can deal with 15%. We started tariffs, we didn't know what they're going to be and now we kind of know and they're they're more moderate and thoughtful and you know, more carefully done and hopefully they'll help some companies export.
Uh, you know, maybe some people move manufacturing back here. So, you know, so far so good. We also spoke about private credit, which he describes as having both pros and cons. I'm not against private credit. I do think there are issues in it, you know, that will rear themselves one day. I would say there issues in credit in general that rear themselves one day.
So, it isn't, you know, I'm just cautious about when people provide credit. Diamond said the firm is doing private credit to give their customers choices. Frank Leslie Picker live in Charlotte. Leslie, great interview. Thank you very much. Uh, I want to get the desk reaction. Josh, I'm going to start with you.
What did you make of what he said specifically about private credit? Look, this is a business that the uh mainstream systemically important banks were pulled away from as a result of regulation a generation ago. The question now is whether or not that still makes sense. And in the meanwhile, the banks are not waiting.
They're not watching this whole parade go by and and not trying to do anything about it. So, um they're going to originate some of these loans. They'll sit in the middle of some of this stuff. Maybe they'll be on the servicing side. and now their wealth management clients are being pushed into a lot of private credit firms that are being run uh elsewhere.
And so they're raking in fees as a result of that. They're finding a way to get involved in this market because it's a really big market and there's a lot of potential here. Um do I worry about it? Yeah, I worry about everything. So this is just like one more thing on the list where people are maybe putting on a lot of leverage or taking more risk than uh they otherwise would because of how safe this asset class has now been deemed.
The bill Oh, sorry. Go ahead. I'm just thinking the question is does it belong in places like a 401k? Right. If we're talking about a if we're talking about a market where potentially folks could get wiped out as that stuff makes its way from the super top tier ultra high netw worth investor who now needs liquidity and so we're coming on down the food chain.
It's making its way into 401ks which is most people's uh largest liquid asset. I have concerns there about the illquidity where it started making its way to average. Uh it's very yeah it's very saturated but I mean they they're making money on it. They're making money on trading. I mean the volatility has been big but but even with low volatility these companies are making more money on on trading.
I think that's big. And then the M&A uh mergers and acquisitions. I mean, Figma going public.
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