저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 경제가 워싱턴 정책에도 불구하고 예상보다 강한 회복력을 보이고 있으며 주식시장도 이를 반영해 상승 중이라는 진단. 관세는 인플레이션 압력이 있으나 소비세 성격으로 상쇄되며, 1분기 실적이 예상의 약 2배 성장해 2분기에도 이익 성장이 이어질 수 있다고 봄. 다만 밸류에이션은 고점 수준으로 복귀했고, 무역합의는 프레임워크 단계로 재협상 가능성이 있다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Let's get to Ed Yardi. Yardenni uh research president. You think I mean we've had the case made that the the stock market is wrong. Basically what someone was saying earlier about the way it's react because it's going to be anti-growth. Even the trade deals themselves. This individual Roger Alton said the trade deals themselves are anti-growth and inflationary and the stock market is just ignoring it because of AI.
I guess was well I I I think the stock market is uh just discounting the facts that we've learned over the past three and a half years and that is this economy is amazingly resilient. It does extremely well. I I think a lot of people tend to focus on the headlines and the headlines tend to be about Washington and they tend to be kind of off-putting maybe depressing sometimes but I've observed that it's amazing how well the US economy and stock market have done despite Washington.
Right. Ed, have have you changed your view views on the effect uh of tariffs on the whole equation because you were what you started the year what' you say 7,000 7,000 yes so the tariffs threw you they did they you were a little bit of trepidation there what you didn't go below 6,400 on no I mean my my my thinking was that uh it's still a bull market but uh you know I had to recognize that
you might be right at 7,000 when it's all said and done. Yeah, it it it may may very well be. I mean, we seem to be in a slow motion meltup right now where the market just kind of gradually goes up every single day and uh no matter what. And I think the market uh since uh April 8th uh April 9th when liberation day was postponed, the market has been uh basically focusing on the economy, focusing on the fact that maybe we don't need lower interest rates.
Maybe inflation isn't going to pop up as much as was was of concern. And all in all, the earnings story is amazing. I mean, earnings the first quarter came out about twice the growth rate came out about twice as much as expected. And it could happen again in this in the second quarter. So, companies are earning money
because it's been the same economy that that you're talking about in the economy three and a half years. I think the the idea was that the economy is going to be adversely affected, right, by all these policies. Would you say that's that's not the case or it's still to come? Well, look, uh we we started out uh in 2022 with the the notion that the economy was going to go into recession.
I wasn't in that camp. I thought the economy would would be resilient. The economy's over the past few years has put up with a pandemic, with supply disruptions, with inflation, with the Fed tightening uh and now with tariffs and uh I guess my view was that uh tariffs would be disturbing but on the other hand the evidence of the past few years is don't underestimate the strength of the economy, the resilience of the economy and particularly the labor market.
So what would knock the stock market off its uh you know the the glide path it seems to be on? Could it be a an inflation number this week? Well, we we do s certainly are back to high valuation multiples. We're we're back to where we were before the correction about 22 3% uh inflation would print above.
I think if we suddenly saw that, you know, we just had to be patient, the tariffs will have some impact on inflation, but I think everybody agrees it's a oneshot deal. So, I'm not even sure that that would be that that off-putting. I think what tariffs have done uh they haven't necessarily raised inflation.
They've kept inflation from getting down to 2%. I think without the tariffs, we would have been at 2%. Now, you just think it's an issue that the economy is able to absorb it, not that it's actually going to I mean, it should be actually raising prices, but you're saying the economy is absorbing it.
It's not that it's actually preventing inflation from happening. No, no. Uh the the tariffs you're saying? Yeah. No, the the tariffs uh must have some sort of inflationary effect, but at the same time, they are a tax and taxes tend to be deflationary. So there's kind of offsetting issues there, but I think the economy is so huge that on on balance, the import side of it just isn't having much of an impact on inflation.
How much of it is is these producers or the retailers or others keeping prices lower because they're afraid to raise prices to the president? I think there's a lot of that going on. But what's really remarkable is that uh analysts aren't predicting that profit margins are going to be shrinking in the second quarter.
That's how much do you Okay. To the extent that you think the tariffs are actually helpful or that these new trade rebalances are helpful. So the idea that General Motors or Ford or somebody else is going to start to sell cars is Germany. How quickly do you think that we'll see a benefit if we see one at all?
And how big how big a benefit? I think there's an immediate benefit when it comes to tax receipts and I think that's what uh Trump really is is exciting tax receipts for the US. Yes. No, no, I'm asking a different question. I'm saying if you were to look at General Motors today. Yeah. Or any of or any of the American companies that are now supposed to have easier access to parts of the of Europe that they didn't before.
How quickly do you think that that is going to actually show up in numbers for for those companies? I think it's going to take a while. I mean, these things like years, not years, but a couple of years. Meanwhile, I think not years, but a couple of years. It sounds like years plural. Okay. Years. Yeah.
Two years. And then you think it becomes a it becomes a meaningful part of their business in a different way. I I think there's a lot of moving parts here. And I think yes, it'll be important part of their business. So meanwhile, you know, the auto industry is kind of a funky industry these days because they face globally tremendous competition from Chinese electric vehicles and these are all subsidized and they keep dumping them around the world.
And what do you think the chances are that all these deals actually get renegotiated mean? Meaning, you know, I mentioned earlier Trump did not get anything on, for example, digital taxes, correct? Uh some of the big tech stuff, all of that. By the way, we should mention right now you're looking at a live shot of Stockholm, Sweden.
uh as all this is actually happening because we're talking about the US trade delegation arriving uh for those trade talks with China um and we'll check in with Aean in just a minute but how how much do you think there's a chance that actually we go back to the the drawing board with some of these trading partners and say actually we need this this this and this and this still
seems to be a very fluid situation and therefore does the 15% go up or down? Yeah. Well, or do you think this is now the ceiling? These are these are just uh framework agreements to a large extent. They're not treaties. They're not something that has to go through Congress. And the president has demonstrated that he's willing to be pretty flexible in terms of what he's demanding, right?
Uh not in terms of what others are demanding. And so he could change the he could go back to the deal making table. There's Scott Bessant walking in Jer who was just on with
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