Peter Schiff ● The Dollar Will Collapse – America Living Beyond Its Means Is Coming To An End

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결론: 미국 부채 누적과 연준의 금리 정책 전환으로 달러가 붕괴하고, 금·은 가격은 급등할 것이라는 주장. 미국 재정·부채 문제: 실제 정부 차입액은 공식 예산보다 훨씬 크며, 2018년 국가부채 증가액은 약 1.5조 달러, 2019년에는 더 커질 것이라고 주장. 무역적자도 2018년 사상 최대였고 2019년에 이를 경신할 것으로 봄. 민간 부채 문제: 기업·개인·학자금·자동차·신용카드 부채가 사상 최대이며, 주·지방정부 부채와 공공·민간 연금 적립 부족도 심각하다고 지적. 금리 상승은 과도하게 레버리지된 경제에 추가 비용 부담. 연준 전망: 연준이 금리 인상을 멈춘 것은 미국 부채 때문이며, 금리 정상화는 불가능하다고 봄. 결국 제로금리로 복귀하고 대차대조표를 줄이기보다 더 확대할 것이라고 예상. 경기·증시 전망: 경기침체와 약세장은 막을 수 없다고 주장. 연준이 자산 버블을 다시 부풀리려 하면 달러 버블이 터지고 실제 위기가 올 것이며, 달러는 붕괴하고 미국의 과소비 시대는 끝난다고 봄. 금 전망: 현재는 폭풍 전의 고요 상태이며, 금 숏 포지션은 큰 손실을 볼 것이라고 경고. 금은 타인의 부채가 아닌 유일한 안전자산이며 중앙은행의 핵심 준비자산이라고 강조. 금은 온스당 5,000~10,000달러까지 오를 수 있고 상한선이 없다고 봄. 은 전망: 과거 2000~2001년 은이 3~4달러에서 50달러까지 오른 사례를 들며, 금이 5,000~10,000달러에 도달한다면 은의 상승률은 금보다 더 클 것이라고 예상.

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01. Peter Schiff the dollar will collapse America living beyond its means is coming to an end money manager Peter Schiff says even though there's record debt everywhere the Fed thinks the economy is fine Schiff explains the actual amount of money the government is borrowing is much larger than what they pretend they are borrowing with the official budget I think the national debt was up around 1.5 trillion dollars in 2018 dot it's probably going to be even greater in 2019 dot dot we have the biggest annual trade deficit ever in 2018 we are going to beat that record in 2019 so we have the twin deficits going off the charts none of that worries fed head Jay Powell we have record corporate debt record individual debt record student debt auto debt credit card debt and none of that concerns Powell we have record debt for state governments and municipalities we have underfunded pensions in both the public and private sector we also have interest rates rising they have risen quite a bit from a few years ago and all of that is an added cost on an over leveraged economy the reason the Fed did this about-face the reason they are now patient and the reason they stopped raising interest rates dot is all about the United States it's all about the enormous debt we have the Fed inflated a bubble where you had all this debt it's impossible to normalize interest rates in this scenario so they came up with an excuse to stop but what the markets still don't realize is it is not enough the Fed is ultimately going to go back to zero percent the Fed is not going to shrink its balance sheet they are going to blow it up a bigger than it was before they started to shrink it there is no way to stop the recession and no way to stop the bear market they are going to have to go back to the but I don't think the Fed is going to succeed in blowing a bigger bubble Schiff goes on to say I think when they start to try to reflate the assets in stocks real estate and in bonds they are just going to prick the dollar bubble and that's when we have a real crisis dot dot the dollar is going to collapse and America's days of living beyond its means is going to come to an end on gold Schiff says I think this is the calm before the storm people don't really perceive it maybe it's like the while a coyote who has just run off a cliff and he just hasn't looked down yet he doesn't realize where he's standing dot dot gold shorts are going to lose an incredible amount of money that's probably one of the most foolish things you can do there are a lot of great things out there too short gold is the last thing you should be shorting for central banks gold is the safest Reserve asset it's the only asset that is not somebody else's liability dot dot I think the world is going back to gold dot $5,000 $10,000 per ounce who knows how high it's going to go there is no real ceiling on the price of gold because there is no floor to the value of the dollar and other fiat currency dot dot gold is going to skyrocket silver Schiff says look at last time silver went up to $50 per ounce from $3 to $4 an ounce in 2000 to 2001 gold went to $1,900 per ounce but silver went to $50 per ounce it was a much bigger percentage gained dot-dot if I am right about gold going to $5,000 to $10,000 per ounce I am sure the percentage gain and silver will be even bigger you