저자: NSO-FortressInvesting · 외국인
요약 보기
옵션 매도 전략으로 포트폴리오가 +15.09%를 기록해 같은 기간 나스닥100(-2.10%)을 크게 앞섰다고 주장. 8주차 실현수익 $2,225(9거래, 전량 풋/콜 매도)로 거래당 효율이 상승. NBIS 옵션 프리미엄 수확이 주 수익의 57.6%를 차지. 마이클 버리는 NBIS 주식을 공매도했으나 IV가 100% 이상이라 풋 매수는 피했다고 설명. 8월 12일 실적발표 예상 변동폭은 ±$37.60으로 제시됨.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to the Noob Selling Options Channel for today's explainer. I am absolutely thrilled to have you here today because, well, we've got a massive, and I mean literally massive, portfolio milestone to cover. We're going to break down exactly how we've been navigating these crazy markets recently, completely dissecting the trades, the exact strategies, and the numbers that got us here.
But, you know, we aren't just taking a victory lap today. Oh, no. We're also setting the stage for a gigantic upcoming showdown with none other than legendary investor Michael Burry. All right, let's just dive right into it. Right out of the gate, I want to anchor us on this specific number: +15.09%.
That's our portfolio return over our latest tracked period. In a market environment that has been relentlessly testing traders, our strategy hasn't just survived, it is absolutely thrived. For anyone out there selling options, this is the ultimate proof of the power of generating your own yield. But, to really truly understand how impressive this 15.09% is, we kind of have to look at what the rest of the market was doing during this exact same time frame.
Section one: crushing the broader market, portfolio versus the NDX. So, check out the stark contrast in trajectories here. Between June 22nd and August 5th, the broader tech market actually really struggled. The Nasdaq 100, the NDX, dropped 2.10%. It was a pretty frustrating period for your average passive investor.
But, while the index was bleeding red, our portfolio surged by that 15.09% we just talked about. Guys, we're talking about locking in over 25,000 Singapore dollars in absolute gains, all while the broader market was sliding backward. This just perfectly illustrates why generating our own yield beats just sitting around waiting for the market to go up.
Section two: week seven all-time highs, breaking down the record profits. Boom. $5,635 in total realized profit for week 7 alone. I have to take a quick second to pat myself on the back here because this is a brand new weekly all-time high for the portfolio. But, you know, the best part for you to learn from is exactly how we pulled it off.
We hit this $5,635 with a completely flawless 100% win rate across the board. Every single trade we closed was a winner, no exceptions. And, of course, I brought the receipts. Just look at the sheer volume and discipline of our execution in week 7. 33 separate successful transactions. We were highly adaptable, constantly jumping across different tickers like Palantir, Uber, SoFi, Broadcom, and NBIS.
We were just constantly shifting our setups to take whatever the market was willing to hand us. And the results? An average gain per trade of a very healthy $170.76. Now, the absolutely crucial point to take away from this is how perfectly balanced our attack was. We didn't just spam one button and hope for the best.
Selling puts brought in 31.1% of our profits. Selling calls generated another 39.6% and pure equity buy and sell swings made up the remaining 29.3%. We captured substantial yield across three completely different mechanical approaches. Honestly, it was a total master class in market adaptability. Section 3, week 8 momentum and efficiency, a strategic shift.
So, heading into week 8, we are already off to a blistering start. We've already locked in $2,225 in realized profit. And yes, for those wondering, we are absolutely maintaining that perfect 100% win rate. [snorts] But, here is the kicker. We generated this $2,225 across just nine trades so far. Let's actually compare the two weeks directly because this is where the real learning happens for us.
Back in week 7, we used a mixed strategy, right? Almost 30% of our profit came from equity swings, which as you know, can tie up a ton of capital. Our average yield was about 170 bucks a trade. But for week eight, we pivoted. We shifted to a 100% pure premium focus. Every single dollar of that $2,225 came purely from selling calls and puts.
And because of that focus, our average yield per trade skyrocketed to $247.22. That is a massive 44% increase in our per trade capital efficiency. This is a big deal because it means we're tying up way less capital to generate significantly more cash flow. Section four, the NBIS profit engine, our biggest winner.
So, what was the star of the show? That would be Nebius Group, ticker symbol NBIS. When you break down our week eight profits, NBIS is absolutely eating up the lion's share, generating a massive 57.6% of this week's total gains. We literally pulled in $1,282 from just two trades on this ticker. An $872 winner on a $205 call and a $410 winner on a $160 put.
We have been aggressively and successfully farming NBIS for premium. But, this is exactly where the story takes a highly dramatic turn. Section five, Michael Burry's short thesis, The Big Short Takes on NBI. Get this. Disclosures showed that Michael Burry, yes, the Michael Burry from The Big Short, opened a direct equity short position on NBIS right around the $211.77 level.
But here's the absolutely crucial detail for us option sellers. Burry explicitly avoided buying put options to express his short view. Why? Because the implied volatility on NVI options is sky-high. We're talking exceeding 100%. The options premiums are so juicy, literally the exact same juicy premiums we've been collecting that even Michael Burry didn't want to pay them.
He felt he had to just short the shares directly. So, why does he hate the stock so much? Well, Burry basically has three core arguments against MBs. First up, massive leverage. He sees heavy off-balance sheet long-term data center lease commitments and debt funding their infrastructure that absolutely dwarf their current recurring revenues.
Second, the rapid evolution of AI chips means super aggressive GPU depreciation cycles. Hardware goes obsolete so incredibly fast that it creates these constant margin crushing capital expenditure needs. And finally, because of that intense capital requirement, he believes their current multi-fold growth valuations are just totally unrealistic, making sustainable net profit highly unlikely.
Section six, the NBIS earnings showdown, Wednesday, August 12th, 2026 before market open. So, because of that sky-high 100-plus percent implied volatility that kept Burry entirely away from options, the market is pricing in an absolute earthquake for this upcoming earnings call. We are talking about an expected implied post-earnings price swing of plus or minus $37.60.
Yeah. Wow. Let's actually map out the battlefield constraints based on a base price of $188. If the bulls win and the stock surges, the options market's 20% implied volatility swing points to an upper bound of roughly $225.60. Now, that would deeply squeeze Michael Burry's $211 short position, right?
But, if Burry hits the nail on the head and the bottom falls out, we are looking at a lower bound crash all the way down to roughly $150.40. That is a massive operational range, and it represents extreme danger, for sure, but also extreme opportunity. So, the ultimate question heading into next week is this.
Will the post-earnings implied volatility crush heavily favor our premium selling strategy, allowing us to just keep farming these absolutely incredible yields, or is Michael Burry's fundamental short thesis going to absolutely shatter the stock? You are definitely not going to want to miss the fallout from this one.
Please make sure you hit that like button, subscribe to the channel, and turn on those notifications so you're right here next week when we reveal exactly how this high-stakes showdown plays out. Thanks so much for joining me on this explainer, and as always, happy trading.
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