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you travel extensively uh all the time meeting with world leaders, CEOs, uh the biggest and most sophisticated investors all over the planet. Um from your seat today, what macro or geopolitical trends you think they may be underestimating? Um well, let's start off. Right. I mean, I did an editorial a few days ago in the Financial Times and I said, I have no idea what this next seven days are going to be, but the next seven years I'm very confident in.
And so, yes, I mean, the United States is is shaking up, I would say, the foundation of globalization, shaking up um how we work together with allies. Um we we are trying to you know and I I I wrote about this we need we need um we need globalization 2.0 globalization worked for those who have savings who invested uh globalization lift more human beings than any time in in the history of human beings in over the last 25 years.
More human beings were lifted to middle class at any other time. That being said, many segments of society have been left behind. And if you go back to 20145 when you started having talks about Brexit and then you ultimately had Brexit and and you had rising populism in many countries and that is a direct result of globalization worked for the entire world but did not work for many segments and I think those segments were left behind and globalization 2.2 too.
And I think this is a fair assessment. We we need to broaden the economies to make it work, working it for more. And so that's the conversation I'm having with leaders. My conversations in Europe are very different than my conversations I'm having here. I mean, it's true and I wrote about it. First conversation you have with everybody is, you know, what's going on?
Uh where are the where are terrorists going? And you know, I know as much as anybody else on that. I mean, but I would say the biggest thing that we are missing here in the United States is the inflationary um backdrop that if if the tariffs are instituted over the next five months, I think we're going to see very elevated inflation.
Recent economic activity showing um that there's a weakening and the weakening is occurring because there's more and more uncertainty. And if you study behavioral science, when there's an an uncertain period of time, as you make decisions, your decisions are biased, negatively biased um by that uncertainty.
And and you know, I could say the same thing. When everybody's uh ebulent and happy, we make aberate decisions that are probably overly optimistic. So at this time we're seeing more and more I would say um in in terms of probability results we're seeing it being skewed to more pessimism and more I would say conservative out you know u uh outcomes and so in the United States I think we're miscalculating um and with a bond market 10 year being what at 4 37 today much as four and a half you know it came down quite a bit on on the backdrop top of a weakening economy.
But I do believe we are going to start seeing the impact of these inflation, these tariffs uh that are going to start impacting the economy over the course of the next 5 months.
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