저자: LarryFink · 외국인
요약 보기
래리 핑크는 다음 7년의 세계화에 대해 자신있게 전망하지만 단기 7일은 예측하기 어렵다고 밝힘. 세계화는 지난 25년간 역사상 가장 많은 인구를 중산층으로 끌어올렸으나 많은 계층이 소외되었고, 이것이 브렉시트와 포퓰리즘 확산의 원인이라고 설명. 이에 세계화 2.0으로 경제 기반을 넓혀야 한다고 주장. 미국은 동맹과의 협력 방식을 포함해 세계화의 기반을 흔들고 있으며, 유럽 지도자들과의 대화는 미국과 상당히 다르다고 언급. 미국의 가장 큰 간과 요인은 관세에 따른 인플레이션 압력이며, 향후 5개월 내 관세가 시행되면 인플레이션이 크게 높아질 것으로 예상. 경제 활동은 불확실성 증가로 약화되고 있으며, 행동과학상 불확실성은 의사결정을 부정적으로 편향시켜 확률 결과가 비관적·보수적으로 기울고 있다고 진단. 미국은 이를 잘못 계산하고 있다는 입장. 미국 10년물 금리는 약 4.37% 수준으로, 경기 약화를 배경으로 크게 하락했으나 향후 5개월간 관세와 인플레이션 영향이 경제에 나타날 것이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
you travel extensively uh all the time meeting with world leaders, CEOs, uh the biggest and most sophisticated investors all over the planet. Um from your seat today, what macro or geopolitical trends you think they may be underestimating? Um well, let's start off. Right. I mean, I did an editorial a few days ago in the Financial Times and I said, I have no idea what this next seven days are going to be, but the next seven years I'm very confident in.
And so, yes, I mean, the United States is is shaking up, I would say, the foundation of globalization, shaking up um how we work together with allies. Um we we are trying to you know and I I I wrote about this we need we need um we need globalization 2.0 globalization worked for those who have savings who invested uh globalization lift more human beings than any time in in the history of human beings in over the last 25 years.
More human beings were lifted to middle class at any other time. That being said, many segments of society have been left behind. And if you go back to 20145 when you started having talks about Brexit and then you ultimately had Brexit and and you had rising populism in many countries and that is a direct result of globalization worked for the entire world but did not work for many segments and I think those segments were left behind and globalization 2.2 too.
And I think this is a fair assessment. We we need to broaden the economies to make it work, working it for more. And so that's the conversation I'm having with leaders. My conversations in Europe are very different than my conversations I'm having here. I mean, it's true and I wrote about it. First conversation you have with everybody is, you know, what's going on?
Uh where are the where are terrorists going? And you know, I know as much as anybody else on that. I mean, but I would say the biggest thing that we are missing here in the United States is the inflationary um backdrop that if if the tariffs are instituted over the next five months, I think we're going to see very elevated inflation.
Recent economic activity showing um that there's a weakening and the weakening is occurring because there's more and more uncertainty. And if you study behavioral science, when there's an an uncertain period of time, as you make decisions, your decisions are biased, negatively biased um by that uncertainty.
And and you know, I could say the same thing. When everybody's uh ebulent and happy, we make aberate decisions that are probably overly optimistic. So at this time we're seeing more and more I would say um in in terms of probability results we're seeing it being skewed to more pessimism and more I would say conservative out you know u uh outcomes and so in the United States I think we're miscalculating um and with a bond market 10 year being what at 4 37 today much as four and a half you know it came down quite a bit on on the backdrop top of a weakening economy.
But I do believe we are going to start seeing the impact of these inflation, these tariffs uh that are going to start impacting the economy over the course of the next 5 months.
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