저자: BrianDean · 외국인
요약 보기
이란 전쟁이 장기화(11주차, 종결 불투명)되며 유가 상승→인플레이션→스태그플레이션 우려. 4월 CPI 3.8% 예상으로 연준 금리인하 가능성 낮고 인상 가능성 존재. 마이클 버리는 1999년 닷컴 붕괴 직전과 유사하다고 경고, 반도체·AI 급등을 위험 신호로 지목. 발표자는 포트폴리오 위험 축소(수익 일부 실현, 10~20% 이상 SGOV 등 단기국채 ETF 배분)를 권고.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone, welcome back to the channel. Today is Monday, May 11th and in this video, I'm going to cover everything that you need to know about the markets this week. There are three topics that we will talk about. First is an update on the Iran war and its impact or lack thereof on financial markets.
Second will be a preview on inflation, which we will be getting an updated reading for tomorrow. And lastly, we'll finish the video with an ominous warning from Michael Burry and some of my related thoughts on portfolio positioning. By the way, if you're new here, hi. My name is Brian. I'm a former investment banker with a Master of Science in Finance and my goal is to help you grow your net worth and invest with confidence.
Okay, let's start with the Iran war. First, it's been a while since I published commentary on this. So, here's a quick refresh of how I'm thinking about this conflict. In this market update, which I published shortly after the US and Israel initially attacked Iran, I argued that this conflict would likely last longer than the four or less weeks that the Trump administration initially advertised.
If you haven't seen that video, I highly recommend checking it out after this video, especially the second half where I talk about how to invest during this type of scenario. I'll leave a link down below the like button. Anyways, we are now in the 11th week of this war and there is still no clear end in sight.
While the US and Iran are in the midst of a ceasefire, little to no progress has been made in reaching a deal to end the conflict. Over the weekend, Iran sent a proposal over to the US, which President Trump quickly blasted on his social media platform as being an unserious offer, saying that the ceasefire is on, quote, life support.
In fact, it was so unserious that Trump said he didn't even read the whole proposal. And the S&P rallied a quarter percent on on news. Investors are now focusing on Wednesday of this week when Trump, along with many US business leaders, is set to visit Chinese leader Xi Jinping to discuss a wide range of issues including the Iran war.
While China has not been involved in this war directly, they are very close trading partners with Iran and have publicly called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. My take on this is that this summit could end up creating more problems than it solves. Firstly, China is not negotiating on behalf of Iran.
So, it would not make sense to expect any kind of breakthrough in ending that war as a result of this meeting. Secondly, China has more leverage than I think the US likes to admit. Currently, a large portion of our military assets have been allocated to operations in Iran, potentially limiting our ability to aid Taiwan should China decide to attack the island country.
While I don't expect that to happen, it is not outside the realm of possibility. And I think China could absolutely use its position here as an additional leverage point in negotiations on trade and intellectual property. Anyways, in terms of the Iran war, everything I've been saying over the last 2 months still stands.
This war will last for much longer than anticipated. Initially, I said months, not weeks. And based on where things stand today, this could realistically shape up to become another so-called forever war, lasting for at least a year or even longer. The impact from this war will also be deeper and longer lasting than people anticipate.
Higher oil prices will lead to inflation, which will pressure the Fed to raise rates despite the US economy already being in a fragile state, which could culminate in an period of stagflation. I'll talk more about what this means for investors in the next section. For now, let's build on this stagflation theme because tomorrow we will be getting the latest read on CPI.
CPI stands for Consumer Price Index, and it is a monthly measure of how prices are changing in the US economy. According to forecasts, this inflation reading is expected to be 3.8% compared to a year ago, which is in the 3 to 6% range that I talked about in previous videos and is nearly double the Federal Reserve's target range of 2% inflation.
This will be an important report because the data here is expected to include the full impact of the Iran war and the pressure that higher oil prices are exerting on the rest of the economy. Higher inflation also means that the Federal Reserve is less likely to cut interest rates and in fact may have to start increasing them again.
As of this recording, the market is now pricing in a less than 4% chance that interest rates are cut by the end of this year. Instead, there is an over 23% chance that at least one interest rate increase happens and a 2.5% chance of two rate hikes. And yet, the market continues to notch new all-time highs, which brings me to the third topic of today's video, which is that Michael Burry has come out today with an warning on his Substack that we are now in the same scenario as 1999 just before the dot-com crash.
Now, out of respect for his platform, I'm not going to post his content here because it is behind a paywall, but he specifically outlined three key parallels to what he witnessed during 1999 to 2000, which saw the market completely erase years' worth of gains. The first is that semiconductor stocks, just like today, did not start increasing in value until the latest stage of the bull market run.
For example, Samsung, which is a direct beneficiary of the AI boom, actually went down in value until mid-2025, two to three years after ChatGPT took off. In the last year, Samsung is up 400% and a similar pattern occurred going into the dot-com crash. Second is that companies with actual value behind them are deeply out of favor.
For example, Zoetis, a drug company that focuses on veterinary medications, is down 40% this year after a relatively mild decline in revenue. Keep in mind, this is a company that just reported $2.3 billion in revenue growing at 3% per year. They have a nearly 3% dividend and a 12 times price-to-earnings ratio, and the stock is trading as if it were at risk of bankruptcy.
And the third signal that he points out is the parabolic nature of the broader AI and semiconductor space. For example, SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor ETF, is up 69% just this year in a nearly straight line. The only other time this has happened was in the lead-up to the dot-com bubble, and most of the stocks in this index collapsed back to their pre-bubble values.
So, we have a months-long war in the Middle East, a potentially second wave of inflation that could turn into stagflation, and Michael Burry is calling for another dot-com style crash. So, what should we do as investors? Well, here are my thoughts. My number one recommendation to everyone that I talk to is to reduce risk.
Now, that doesn't mean sell all of your stocks or try shorting the market. In fact, far from it. Rather, if you've been investing for more than a month, you're likely sitting on a hefty profit, especially if you've been in an all-stock portfolio that is loaded up with tech and AI and semiconductors.
Now would be a great time to rebalance your portfolio, take some of those gains off the table, and put as little as 10 or even 20% into something safe, like SGOV, which is a Treasury ETF yielding close to 4%, and that return is nearly risk-free. And personally, I would bump that up to 40%, but I'm more risk-averse than investors in my age group.
All I'm saying is whatever your current portfolio position is today, consider, just consider, dialing your risk exposure back just a notch or two or three, whatever you're comfortable with. Anyways, that's everything you need to know for this week. If you like these market update videos, please let me know with a like or leave a comment down below, as it really helps me understand what kind of content is most valuable to you. Thanks as always for watching, and I'll see you in the next one.
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