원문 보기
uh Peter Schiff thanks for coming on with us oh thanks for having me on Alex where should we start well you started talking about the price of gold you know it actually had a little bit of a decline this week because you know the Federal Reserve minutes were released on Wednesday this is for the meeting they had about six weeks ago I meant the aggregate though it's it's it's big up on the year right so oh yeah I mean it's up I mean it started the year you know below 1100 it got down to 1050 uh when the FED just raised rates uh in December but it's had a pretty big run but the the Gold stock have gone up a lot more in fact there are silver stocks that have gone up 3 four some 500% since their January lows so that's that's been the biggest move but the pullback started uh with the FED coming out and talking about the fact that if the job market continues to improve and if the economy continues to get better that they might raise rates in June and of course everybody interpreted that to me oh the fed's going to raise rates in June when they didn't actually say that but they talked about it and that's that tease you predicted five or six times that they indeed did then you correctly I remember predicted a month before they would go up a little bit and then now you're predicting they're going to keep it the same I mean you've been pretty much dead on yeah you know I don't think they're they're going to raise rates in June I mean it is possible again they could make that mistake because they they did make the mistake from their perspective of notching them up in December you predict I hate to interrupt you it's good to be you know Interruption to be you did predict that the Q unlimited would not work and it has not worked no and they're going to do it again because they don't they don't they never admit their mistake akes but what's going to happen is they're probably not going to raise because if you actually look at what's happened in the last 6 weeks not only has the labor market not strengthened it's actually weakened considerably and the economic data that's come out over the last six weeks on balance has been worse than expected uh so you know if the Fed was hoping to get you know better news they didn't get better news and you know I think the news is actually worse than the government reports because I don't think we're telling the whole Story the only numbers that are really coming up are the inflation numbers and for some reason they're saying this is a good thing you know the fact that inflation is picking up you know apparently is progress according to the fed you know the LA the CPI we just got showed an annualized increase in consumer prices if you multiply it out at 6% a year and this is supposed to be good news it's supposed to represent progress towards price stability no it's not we're going in the opposite direction if you want prices to be stable you don't want them to go up at all the fact that they're gr up faster doesn't mean you're getting closer to your goal of price stability you're getting further away from your goal what does it signify that oil's gone up some well oil's going up because the dollar is reversed the dollar is going down and the dollar did you know move up a little bit when on the FED announcement but interestingly oil didn't move down very much and oil right now is just below $49 a barrel and we're up over 70% from the lows I mean we were down below 30 we got down to like 27 28 but yes we're still below the $100 a barrel we were at what a year and a half or two years ago wherever we were up there but you know what we can get up there very quickly uh we don't If the Fed doesn't hike rates in uh in June I think they're setting the dollar up for a big drop and another huge run up in gold and oil and in fact even if the FED does raise rates I don't think that's bearish uh for gold because what happened to Gold the last time to Fed raised rates it went way up because these rate hikes are too little too late sure I understand ask you this question you're dead on I think you're probably the most accurate guy out there everybody we interview so so let me ask you this why is the media right that we're finally in big financial problems uh how bad is it globally you've got all this default stuff in places like Puerto Rico now they have a deal with Congress uh you got all this bail-ins more in Europe You' got all these Pension funds going belly up uh you've got the saies can't pay their bills I mean what is going on well I don't think the media is coming close to acknowledging how bad the economy actually is I mean I think if you just look at how popular Bernie Sanders is and Donald Trump that's a good indication of how bad the economy is because both the left and the right know how bad it is and so they're both grasping for straws looking looking for something different but you know you mentioned Puerto Rico and the interesting thing about Puerto Rico is Puerto Rico is broke I mean that's pretty obvious even the governor admits that mathematically you know they can't pay their debts but three years ago they were just as broke it's just that no nobody cared because creditors weren't worried they just kept lending the money even though they were broke and interest rates were down so it's a cold sore it's a canary in the coal mine the fact that that's happening shows other big creditors are now overextended well it just shows you that you know it's it's all a question of it's never a problem until it is right so Puerto Rico was broke but now it's a problem because the creditors figured out that they're broke well America is more broke than Puerto Rico that's a fact it's just that our creditors haven't figured it out yet but when they do then Donald Trump is going to end up being right because all we could do is default and if we don't default if we print money which now Trump is saying oh we don't have the default because we could print well printing is worse than default because printing doesn't just wipe out the bond holders it wipes out anybody who owns US Dollars yeah I agree with you Trump is wrong on that front I like him because he's sincere uh you you were Ron Paul's Chief uh you know economic adviser and you advise others in Congress and testified obviously Peter shf uh what would you advise Trump to do I mean I know the advice on the show actually gets to him I know he you know tunes into what we have to say and our guests have to say um pretty much on a daily basis uh what would you say to Trump well you know it's hard to say what's the best thing for Trump the candidate to say I mean so far he's done a pretty good job as Trump the candidate but if he actually wins you know the advice that I would give Trump to president is actually when he talked about some kind of restructure that is exactly what we need because we can't pay back our debt but we need higher interest rates now Donald Trump said hey I'm a low interest rate guy low interest rates are part of the problem now Donald Trump knows that if interest rates go up we can't afford to pay our debt so his solution is to keep interest rates low but that doesn't work that's part of the problem that's why the economy can't have real economic growth sure we'll end up like Japan if this continues yeah we need higher interest rates but then we have to admit that we have too much debt to afford higher interest rates and we have to restructure that is the painful reality that we have to do sure because if we don't restructure we'll just finally either collapse or just go into stagnation I mean which one is it well it'll be massive inflation because if we if if we keep interest rates low forever no matter how high inflation gets then the dollar collapses and they keep Printing and printing and printing and then that type of scenario runaway inflation hyperinflation that is much worse than a legitimate restructuring yeah well I'm no rocket scientist like you when it comes to mathematics and and economy but seems to me if they're creating tens of trillions more in derivatives and fake dollars and credit default swaps and all this crap that it's going to cause inflation so where are they hiding all the inflation because to me it seems like it should be much worse by now you know it's actually hiding in plain sight because first of all the inflation is all the money printing right that's the definition the consequence of inflation is that prices go up but look stock prices went way up real estate pric went back up yeah look look uh rare art went back up you know collectible cars went back up I mean asset prices have gone up like crazy that is inflation and of course anybody who lives in America knows that the price are going up look rents are up about 8% year-over-year look at how much health care costs have gone up utilities are going up look at the price of food have you bought a steak recently at a supermarket I mean prices are going up it's just that the government is not doing an accurate job of reporting and that is by Design so with the numbers oh I agree I've been going to the same Steakhouse for like 15 years and 15 years ago the steak was $25 I thought that was too much the same steak I want is a $100 and I won't get it just because it cost a $100 a good ribeye now at the store it's like $25 at a steakhouse it's $100 I mean that same riye at at the grocery store was like $8 five years ago so you're right there's huge inflations yeah I mean try to barbecue for your family try to how many people could still afford to put steaks on that barbecue I mean a lot of people can barely we have hamburgers I mean you I got a little bit of money just to run the operation but still I'm not going to buy steak at that price yeah I mean look the standard living is going down mean Americans are working two or three jobs in peace and they can barely make ends meet you know this economy is a disaster and everyone wants to pretend that it's great because no one wants to admit that Obama is a complete failure that the Federal Reserve was a complete failure that everything the government has done has failed so what happens next you you've accurately told us i' say about 95% accuracy what's going to happen what happens next Peters shf well depends on what your time frame is but you know I I do think that we are either back in recession or so close to one that we will be in one shortly and I I think it's more likely that we're already there but the question is will the FED reverse course and cut rates before or after the election that's a little bit of a wild card I think if it wasn't an election they would just go ahead and do it but I think you know the FED wants to artificially stimulate the econom to help Hillary Clinton win but they don't want to have to admit that the economy needs stimulus because that would undercut her message of trying to continue uh the successful policies of Obama because if we're back in recession while he's still president that proves that his policies were failure so the FED is caught in a difficult position and I'm not exactly sure uh you know which poison they're going to choose but they have to decide but to just keep pretending that everything is great and then maybe even raising interest rates that is probably going to help Donald what would you do sure sure what would you do then what would I do I mean we wouldn't be in this predicament if I was there but if you put me in today you know I'd be like one of the CEOs you know you get when you come in you know you want a clean house right you want to get all the bad news out you want to throw everything out including the kitchen sink get it all out of the way you know sometimes they just want to blame the predecessor but in this case it would be the fault of my predecessors if I was aead of the Federal Reserve no I understand so if you were the head of the feder the head of the treasury or or co-head of both what would you do boom yeah yeah well would admit that everything that was done by my predecessors going back not not not vulker but but Greenspan and bernacki and yell that they everything they did was wrong right I said look we got raised interest rates and I you know I'm try to let the market set interest rates but I tell the markets the FED is not going to be in there we're not going to be inter intervening we starts encouraging investment again not just free money we're not we're not going to keep interest rates down we're going to let the market push them however high they have to go and I think they'd go pretty high and I tell the I tell the Congress we're not buying any of your paper so you better balance this budget right now or interest rates are going Skyhigh and if you can't handle the interest rates then you better so you'd encourage a real Market again oh yeah I would I would tell the government there's no more easy way out you level with the voters either you cut government spending you know if you want to raise taxes you can try that but I don't think that'll work so you cut government spending you negotiate with your creditors but the gravy train is over there's no more debt monetization you're going to have to deal with the consequences of your propy and I'm as a Fed chairman I'm not going to enable it anymore I would be an independent Central Bank which is exactly what we need
Comments 0