저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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연준의 12월 금리인상 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 의사록은 인상을 보장하지 않으며, 인상 시에도 0.25%p 수준의 미미한 인상일 것으로 예상. 연준 의사록은 12월 인상을 사실상 보장하지 않으며 다수가 조건이 맞을 수 있다고만 말했다는 해석. 데이터 의존 발언도 긴축이 아닌 완화를 요구하는 나쁜 데이터를 감추려는 쇼로 평가. 인상을 하더라도 0.25%p 수준에 그칠 가능성이 있으며, 시장이 사상 최고치 근처라 이 정도 인상은 수용될 것으로 봄. 다만 12월 전 시장 급락, 11월 고용 쇼크, 10월 고용 하향 수정 등으로 인상이 취소될 여지도 있다고 언급. 경기 상황은 매우 약하다고 진단. 메이시스·노드스트롬 등 유통업체 실적 부진, 제조업 지표 악화, 주택착공 감소를 근거로 제시. 실업률 5%는 경기침체 직전에는 낮고 침체 후 높아지므로 과거 지표로 보면 안 된다고 주장. 경기 침체가 재개되면 금리를 다시 0%로 낮추고 QE4와 '헬리콥터 머니'가 필요하다고 전망. 유럽은 마이너스 금리와 디플레이션 정책을 쓰고 있으며 미국도 가능하다고 언급. 달러는 매도세, 금은 상승할 것으로 전망. 고객들에게 달러 자산을 줄이고 해외 자산과 귀금속으로 이동하라고 권고. 샌더스의 민주사회주의는 나라를 망치겠지만 그 붕괴가 자유시장으로의 전환을 촉발할 수도 있다고 주장. 힐러리가 여전히 샌더스에 크게 앞선다고 언급.
다듬은 글
well you know first of all everybody is excited now about the fact that they believe the most recent minutes the fomc Federal Open Market Committee minutes basically guarantee a December rate hike but if you actually read those minutes they don't say that at all all they say is that a majority of the members believe that the conditions may be right for a raid hike in December but they're not sure it depends on the data and they're going to make a decision you know in December so none of that to me sounds any different than the rhetoric we've been hearing all year long so I don't think it's a sure thing but I would say that it's probably more probable that the FED might actually move and do a quarter of a point not a whole percentage point but just one quarter of 1% which is basically nothing if the stock market is near record highs uh you know the day before that meeting and it looks as if everybody is okay with this tiny raid hike they might have their cake and eat it too so you're predicting a quarter now because that would be both you know well I still think they probably won't do it because first of all there's a lot of time between now and then the market could sell off we can get a really bad jobs number for November they can revise down the October number so a lot can happen between now and then but if everything happens perfectly it is possible especially since they've come out now and said look if we do move in December it's going to be a long time before we do it again and we're not going to raise rates very much even when we're finished so they're trying to take this thing out of the raid hike by promising not to do very much but look if the if the FED had confidence in our economy why would they be worried about raising a rate interest rates to a quarter of a percent why would they have to reassure everybody that that's all it's going to be and that we don't have to worry about rates ever getting all the way back up to 2% or 3% which would still be historically very low why does the FED have to assure us that that that's not going to happen if the economy is as good as they say it is and the reason this is so important is if they do have a point hike as they say you've gone over the problems there quarter point no I understand I'm saying let's just say they did have a onepoint like the media is talking about versus a quarter point versus not how do you see those three different scenarios affecting the economy well the media if they're talking about a full percentage point they're probably talking about over the next year or two nobody is predicting that the FED is going to raise rates by a full percentage point in December I haven't read anybody predict that but yes there are people who think over the course of the next year or two will eventually get rates all the way back up to 1% which was the lowest that they got under Greenspan that's where Greenspan stopped and that's what gave us the housing bubble in the financial crisis and now you know we'd have to raise race four times basically to get back to that that 1% but I think long before the FED gets to 1% if they actually start in December we're going to be back in our official recession or close enough to it that the fed's going to have to stimulate and if you think about it this way we've just had the weakest economic recovery ever and it's been seven years and the typical recovery lasts maybe five or six years so this is already a longer recovery than normal despite the fact that it's the weakest recovery ever and it's required the most amount of stimulus by a long shot we've never had so much stimulus to produce such so weak a recovery so if this recovery was so weak with 0% interest rates imagine how quickly it's going to unravel if they start to raise rates and so when this recession resumes they're going to have to bring rates back down to zero they're going to have to do qe4 in fact they're going to have to get those helicopters out of the hangers because it's going to take a record amount of stimulus to try to breathe some more artificial life into what's that's what I was about to ask if they did do the point over the next few years incrementally and it didn't go the way they wanted and the stock market starts crashing then wouldn't confidence be even more lost and they can't go below uh zero or or or could they actually charge you to keep money in the bank well they don't charge you but they charge some of the The Lending institutions like they're doing uh in Europe right now you know they've actually got negative rates and in fact many of the government bonds now if you buy a Government Bond in the Euro Zone uh you're going to get back less than you pay I mean it's you know it really is a crazy thing that's gone on over there so I guess it can happen here too but that's one of the reasons that it is so dangerous uh from their perspective to raise rates because they look that much more foolish when they have to cut them but I do believe if they do raise rat slightly they're going to try to cover their tracks by leaving the the door open by saying look we just raised rates but we're still we can go either way with the next move we may hike with may cut right depending on the data right they're going to stay data dependent which again I think is all just part of their show I think they're stalling because the data has been horrible ever since the FED has said they're data dependent the data has been bad the data would argue for easier money not tighter money based on this data uh yet they're still pretending that the economy is getting better even though the data says that it's not wow well looking at this looking at the wide spectrum of data we know they could joblessness numbers and we know they cook um you know things like inflation but looking at all the numbers yourself and what other experts are saying what is the state of the economy I think it's very weak I mean look since the last time you and I spoke we've had some horrible earnings at Major retailers like Macy's Nordstrom's where sales have just really collapsed and that followed you know we had bad numbers earlier from The Gap from Walmart I mean if this is a recovery why aren't consumer shopping if we really are creating all these jobs why don't the unemployed need to spruce up their wardrobes for their new jobs I think the fact that spending is falling is a bad sign all the manufacturing numbers are horrible uh you've just got the housing numbers but you know they're starting to roll over we just got a housing number this week that showed the the fewest number of Home starts in seven months so that starting to turn down I think the data is starting to you know go the other direction yes we still have 5% unemployment but remember recessions always begin when unemployment is low unemployment is high when the recession ends but recessions don't start because of layoffs layoffs happen because of the recession so you know when you're just looking at unemployment you're looking in in the rearview mirror and ignoring all the information in the windshield but you know when you talk about inflation look at the forest that's going on in Europe dragi just came out this morning and he's saying look I'm gonna do whatever it takes to make sure we have more inflation in the Euro Zone he look he's looking at consumer prices they're rising in Europe they're just Rising very slowly and he wants them to rise more rapidly but just not as fast as 2% but close to 2% he wants inflation to be like 1.8 or 1.9 and right now it's you know under one but think about this why would anybody say that what we need is higher prices for our consumers I mean dry is is specifically pointing to oil and saying these low oil prices are a problem why the European Union or the Euro zone They import oil they're not producing a lot of oil uh in the Euro zone so why is it a bad thing if when a European pulls into a gas station that he spends fewer Euros on gas why is it a bad thing if his if his electric bill is lower or you know or his heating well that's all part of this carbon tax austerity where we're supposed to have less money to teach us to you know not assume too much this idea that it's good for us to be poor but the elites are all in giant jumbo jets with red carpets they're not saying that though he's dry is somehow saying that prices not Rising faster is somehow a threat to the European economy that's somehow it's and that's nonsense but you know what they really want to do in Europe is they want to reduce debt and they want to lower wages because Europeans have all sorts of things that artificially increase rages and the real reason they want inflation is to reduce people's real wages but dry doesn't want to come out there and say that so he tries to makes up this nonsense about why he's going to have to make sure we have more inflation I know it's all about social engineering I want to ask you what would happen if Bernie Sanders got elected what you think he would do because he's out defending Democratic socialism what a nightmare scenario that would be but so many well many people like him he joins us from euro.com Peter Schiff uh Peter uh other predictions other other points you'd like to uh basically put out there as we go into this Christmas holiday season with what's really happening with the economy you still say you've been right so far you don't think they're going to raise rates because you think something might happen before now and later in December yeah well I still think the FED is more likely not to raise rates than do it but they probably it's probably a greater probability that they'll do it this time than at any point during the year but I do think if they do it it will be a oneandone scenario and I do expect the dollar to sell off and gold to rise finally regardless of what they do which is why I think people should take advantage of this opportunity now to continue to move more money that's what we're doing with our clients at Europe Pacific Capital getting people out of the US dollar putting more money overseas into the countries that aren't making these mistakes uh putting more money into precious metals you mentioned before the break about Bernie Sanders and about his you know form of democratic uh socialism look just putting the word Democratic in front of a bad word doesn't make the bad word good just because people vote for it I can say I'm for Democratic slavery and that doesn't make slavery good but the problem is Bernie Democratic AIDS Democratic syphilis Democratic cancer yeah in his heart of hearts Bernie Sanders is a socialist he doesn't believe in the free enterprise system he doesn't believe in capitalism look at anything he used to write or stand for before he ran for president he does not believe in the principles that we fought the American Revolution on he Embraces the principles that they fought the Russian Revolution on but you know there's an argument to be made that maybe Sanders could actually help because by having Sanders as president he'll screw up the country so badly so quickly and it's already screwed up that he might hasten a real Revolution towards free markets to abandon all this nonsense because all he wants to do is make the welfare state bigger he wants to expand yes the Socialist programs from the New Deal from the Great Society the stuff he wants to do would bankrupt the country bankrupt America but the problem is we're already bankrupt uh so why not why not go all in on socialism so we know how bad it is so we could puke it all out and start over again I was about to say I've got red behind me on the TV screen because this country obviously is deeper and deeper in the red but so was the whole world in this race to the bottom but you've got a point I've been concerned if a ran Paul or a Donald Trump got in and tried to free market fix things the Congress the globalists the big corporations would sabotage it then they'd blame the collapse on capitalism but if we got a Bernie Sanders in it would wreck so horribly that maybe would finally discredit socialism forever but I doubt it yeah and I thought that was going to happen that was one of the reasons I was thinking well let Obama become president so it all falls apart on his watch but he looks like he's going to get out of Dodge you know this thing is going on longer than I thought but that is a fear that you get a Rand Paul in there and everything falls apart when he's there and it's so you see look what happens when we try capitalism or you know libertarianism so I really would like to see the collapse on a Democrat watch especially one that Embraces government so wholeheartedly as Bernie Sanders because if you thought Jimmy Carter was bad Jimmy Carter got us Ronald Reagan right he was the one decent president that we had and of course he could have been better uh if he hadn't made all those deals with with tip O'Neal to increase spending but we never would have got Ronald Reagan if it hadn't been for the horror of Jimmy Carter well we can get something much worse and if it happens under Bernie Sanders watch we could really come out of something really good on the other side of that Sanders Administration well we can really see the Democrats pushing to have the implosion happen once they hand the Baton to the Republicans yeah although it looks like it looks like Hillary still has a 25-point lead in front of in front of Sanders but you know I don't understand why if I was a Democrat I mean Sanders is hitting on all their key issues because they all are socialists anyway so at least Sanders admits it I don't know why they all like Hillary what is the fascination with Hillary Clinton she a woman just the just the name just a you know well you know maybe she could be the vice president on on the Sanders ticket I don't know but I mean I I Sanders in a way again the Democrats should should like him I mean I you know he he he he says everything he's a bumbling socialist cook they should love him who's never worked a day in his life outside the system he's a perfect space alien who just has no connection to reality yeah he's look he's a perfect Democrat he's he's to the left of of Hubert Humphrey he's to the left of the Govern he would be the most left-wing candidate they've ever and he's a c they love Cooks all right Peter shiff have a great weekend thank you for the time you too have a great uh Thanksgiving absolutely you too we'll be back folks stay with us and then the Sunday Show 4 to 6 p.m. central
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