Despite stock stumbles, Dan Ives remains bullish on Apple

요약 보기

애플 공급망 보고서(주문 800~1000만대 과잉 주문 및 재주문 중단)에 대해 Ives는 이를 약세 신호로 보지 않고, 아시아 공급망 체크와 자신의 점검 결과(블랙프라이데이~연말 아이폰 약 4,000만대, 시장 추정치보다 약 10% 상회)를 근거로 연말 분기 사상 최강 실적을 전망했다. 애플의 가치는 서비스 부문이 핵심으로, 서비스 가치를 약 1.5조 달러로 평가하며 내년 서비스 매출을 약 800억 달러로 봤다. 앱스토어 규제 리스크에 대해서는 구글의 수수료 인하 등 압력이 있지만 경쟁 우위가 유지되어 가치 훼손은 제한적이라고 판단했다. 주가 목표는 장기적으로 3조 달러 시가총액을 제시하며, 하락 구간마다 매수 관점을 유지했다. 자동차 사업에 대해서는 애플이 2025년경 전기차(특히 자율주행) 시장에 진입할 것으로 보며, 테슬라의 시장 지위는 유지되겠지만 5조 달러 규모의 전기차 전환 흐름의 일부로 본다고 밝혔다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. stan good morning to you i'm not sure how many times we can sort of absorb these uh anonymously sourced supply chain stories about this name you in general don't put much credence in them okay then there's a lot of ebbs and fluids to the apple supply chain but at the end of the day they over ordered by about eight to ten million units going in so i think this report it kind of contradicts what we're seeing in terms of asia supply chain checks where it's stronger than expected this is across from china in terms of demand perspective in u.s and if the strongest holiday quarter apple's ever had is weak then call week but to me i think this is a stock that's go on its way to three trillion dollar market what what takes you to 200 uh dan is this a a scenario where you would have to wait for the spring quarter where we typically hear more about capital returns or is it something else well it's really about services i think services is a big part of the re-reading we use on about 1.5 trillion valuations that are some of the parts and that could be upwards of 80 billion going into next year so i think that's something on the services gonna continue to be strong and then i look at the overall product cycle i think it's the the strongest product cycle we've seen at a cupertino in over a decade and even though we'll have these sort of gyrations and maybe some white knuckle periods i ultimately think this is a stock with a two in front of it going into next year dan uh i don't see how this report even makes sense the idea of demand weakness in the holiday quarter given the supply constraints that apple has guided to the the market also reacted negatively to by the way and uh the lead times that we've continued to see the checks um that so many analysts have done i don't get it d do you get it look it's a bit of a head scratcher uh to be honest in terms of looking at but what i do think happened here is you know as as anyone's doing checks that caught eight to ten million units the fact that apple's not reordering that maybe being mistook miss sort of mischaracterized as being weak but ultimately that was them just over order for for holiday knowing a supply chain crunch was coming i mean i think based on our checks this is about 40 million iphone units they're gonna do between black friday and holiday and that'll be the strongest holiday court they've ever had now be about 10 above current street estimates so there's gonna be a lot of noise here but we're continuing buyer in the dips here and and i think this is a stock that continues to move higher yeah and as you say you say it continues to march towards 3 trillion in your opinion dan services is a big part of that re-rating but what do you make of app store pressure we haven't talked about it in a little bit but it's definitely still there you saw google what about a month ago take down its fees preemptive to any kind of regulation how big is that risk yeah it's a golden goose for apple when it comes to app store and i continue to focus on despite epic and what we've seen from a regulatory perspective i mean that's a pretty strong competitive moot around the edges there could be some pressures but it's going to be north of what i think is 80 billion going into next year that's a big part of the re-reading if i go back the last 18 20 months i think going into the street was assigning a 2 300 billion dollar valuation for services and we think that's worth 1.5 trillion and this is going to be a situation where the haters they'll hate it one trillion despise it at 2 trillion and then when it's three trillion there'll be a yelling out into an empty cars hey dan finally um longer term we've had a couple of weeks now to absorb those reports that apple was uh accelerating its uh its car program specifically its autonomy uh car program um yesterday there's there's some work at morgan stanley they're wondering whether or not that eventually turns the auto industry into a subscription model and makes tesla the blackberry of mobility what are your thoughts on that well i view it as it's a matter of when not if uh apple gets into the the ev especially on autonomous we think an apple car by 2025 but this is not a zero-sum game i mean tesla's gonna continue have an iron-clad ownership of the market but we view as a 5 trillion dollar green tidal wave biggest transformation to the auto industry since 1950s so i viewed just apple throwing their hat in the ring it's just another indication of where this market is moving but we continue to believe that that is going to happen it's a matter of how and ultimately when in terms of with a partner