저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 중앙은행의 유동성 확대로 인해 주식시장 호황은 허상이며 결국 시스템 붕괴(대폭락)가 올 수 있다고 경고한다. 시장 상황: 세계 대부분 주식거래소는 최근 1년간 하락했고, 뉴욕증시도 2015년 말 기준 하락 종목이 상승 종목의 두 배였다. 지수가 괜찮아 보이는 이유는 소수 대형주로 자금이 몰리기 때문이다. S&P500 신고가와 CNN 공포탐욕지수의 탐욕 구간을 언급하며 과열을 지적했다. 중앙은행·유동성: 전 세계 중앙은행이 인쇄기를 멈추지 못하고 있으며 일본·유럽의 추가 양적완화를 비판했다. 현 상황이 더 나빠지는 것은 결국 좋지 않은 결말로 이어진다고 봤다. 금융기관 리스크: 연준이 은행의 자사주 매입을 허용한 조치를 백도어 구제금융이자 폰지 사기로 규정했다. 도이체방크는 리먼브라더스와 유사하며, 파산 시 리먼보다 훨씬 큰 충격이 될 것이라고 경고했다. 파생상품 규모가 수조 달러라 거대한 폭풍이 온다고 봤다. 수혜자: 조지 소로스의 공매도·금 롱 포지션을 언급했으나, 로저스는 누가 돈을 버는지 확실치 않으며 대다수 투자자는 수익을 내지 못하고 헤지펀드도 문을 닫고 있다고 답했다. 금·중국: 중국 대중이 금을 대량 매수하고 있으며 중국은 서구보다 충격 대응력이 낫다고 평가했다. 중국 정부의 금 보유량은 공개되지 않아 알 수 없다고 했다. 채권·실질수익: 빌 그로스의 '원금 회수 걱정' 발언에 동의하며, 정부가 디폴트 대신 돈을 찍으면 명목상 돌려받아도 실질 가치는 없다고 했다(러시아 사례). 출연자 전망: 시장 붕괴를 예상하며, 향후 1~3개월 단기 예측은 명시되지 않음. 장기적 대폭락 경고.
다듬은 글
it's with the man himself Jim Rogers thanks for joining me I'm delighted to be a get it Jim today on zero heads we saw CNN's greed and fear index hitting highs that we haven't seen since 2014 so we're seeing this greed aspect where there's a lot of fear and there's a lot of greed and investors are getting greedy in the stock market and the sp500 actually hit new high today what is your thought on this well it's weird the world is flooded with an artificial ocean of liquidity in it central banks all over the world cannot stop their printing presses in fact they keep giving them up it looks like the Japanese are now going to print even more Europeans are going to print even more this is all absurd it's all that racist it's all that is very very bad they win it ends the question is when it's going in it should have ended by now it hasn't it seems to be getting worse which is good for people that's critical people on the S&P it's not going to be good in the end mmm well you know sir you mentioned central bank's getting involved here where do you suppose these rallies in the markets are coming from and you know I know the Federal Reserve just came out and gave the bank's a backdoor bail out allowing them to buy back their own stock and you know do you suppose it's just going to be more of the same Ponzi scheme regarding these market rallies until the system implodes absolutely kennis if you look at stocks let's use you know I put New York for the moment most stocks in late 2015 twice as many stocks were down as up on the New York Stock Exchange but the averages looked okay so far this year more stocks are down than up but if the averages look okay it's because there's a lot of money floating around most of its going into a few big stocks names that people know and will buy at almost any price but most stocks are going down in tennis if you look around the world most of the big stock exchanges around the world are down over the last year some of them fairly substantially so there's a lot of money floating around but it's not doing very well in returns you know what sir I gotta ask you who do you suppose is is gonna profit from this current debacle just as global financial mess obviously we got the eurozone with the brexit and you know I hope if I can I'll bring up George Soros who tends to be someone who positions himself in ways for that for big profits in geopolitical events and we recently heard about his short positions in the stock market short bets and Deutsche Bank along with his long position on gold and I want to ask you where do you see the elite money going and how will they profit from this big mess well I repeated most stocks are down in most stock markets are down around the world most people are not doing well in their best months unless they happen own a lot of bonds initial unless they have an own go gold but most things are teardown canvas I'm not sure who's making the money maybe the short sellers are making money and in the various markets around the world but unfortunately people are not getting good returns most many hedge funds as you know a closing and there's thousands of hedge funds now but the returns are not there you'll also see that most future funds are not doing as well so we're in a period but most people are not making much not doing well unless you happen on the S&P and those few stocks to always go up or your own blob and those are the things that are up this year yeah well you know Deutsche Bank is reminding me a lot of a Lehman Brothers in 2008 and I'm actually hearing that the Deutsche Bank implosion will make Lehman Brothers look like a small bank in Idaho going under would you agree with you know what we saw in 2008 and Lehman Brothers and what we're seeing now with Deutsche Bank looking eerily similar Jennifer don't you thank you look you can forget all the comparisons used in the last two or three decades in the world but the Georgia Bank is the largest bank in Germany is the gigantic institution it has trillions of dollars in derivatives off-balance-sheet derivative if that goes you look out the windows if you're going to see a gigantic storm coming hmm well let's shift our focus over to China we don't China's a yuuma lading gold on and off record and you know I'm wondering do you feel that China is positioned stronger to absorb a massive shock to the fiat currency system than say the US and the eurozone considering its gold that it's importing well it does have a lot of gold and it's interesting if you go to China and you walk down the street you'll see a lot of gold shops where people can go in and buy and sell gold if they want to this is a phenomena did not exist 15 years ago it's only been in the last three years that this has happened and so the Chinese public has been buying a lot of gold you can buy Chinese gold coins pretty easily not pretty very very in China and a lot of people have been buying up so the Chinese public is positioned stronger than it ever has been as far a lot ever but in the past several decades as far as precious and folks are concerned I don't know if the Chinese government owns those not they make officially announced that they own some gold I don't know how much they own them they don't they don't announce it but China is certainly in better position than most countries now you know the West the United States is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world most countries in Europe have beat yet China has some debts now something much worse than it has been in the past few decades but China is in much better shape to push to deal with what's coming than most garbage well mr.
Rogers I'd like to get your closing thoughts here Bill Gross the bond King says investors should be now worried about just getting their money back to them a return of their money versus a return on their money and just kind of with those with that theme in mind what are your final thoughts here well he's correct about that even if you own government bonds if the government's don't declare bankruptcy and don't default what they'll do is just put a lot of money so you you know Russia went bankrupt in the early nineties all the pensioners got paid they just got paid in worthless money so no they didn't default and that's what's likely to happen this time around you might get your money back but actually the facts are you're not getting real money back so he's right not a worry but suppose these rallies in the markets are coming from and you know I know the Federal Reserve just came out and gave the bank's a backdoor bail out allowing them to buy back their own stock and you know do you suppose it's just going to be more of the same Ponzi scheme regarding these market rallies until the system implodes absolutely kennis if you look at stocks let's use you know I put New York for the moment most stocks in late 2015 twice as many stocks were down as up on the New York Stock Exchange but the averages looked ok so far this year more stocks are down than up but if the averages look ok it's because there's a lot of money floating around most of its going into a few big stocks names that people know and will buy at almost any price but most stocks are going down in tennis if you look around the world at the most of the big stock exchanges around the world are down over the last year some of them fairly substantially so there's a lot of money floating around but it's not doing very well in returns you know what sir ha I got it thousands of hedge funds now but the returns are not there you'll also see the most future ones are not doing as well we're in a period but most people are not making much not doing well unless you have known the S&P and those few stocks to always go up are you on bond and those are the things are up this year yeah well you know Deutsche Bank is reminding me a lot of a Lehman Brothers in 2008 and I'm actually hearing that the Deutsche Bank implosion will make Lehman Brothers look like a small bank in Idaho going under would you agree with you know what we saw in 2008 and Lehman Brothers and what we're seeing now with Deutsche Bank looking eerily similar to what you think goes broke you can forget all the comparisons use in the last two or three decades in the world but there's Oranje Bank is the largest bank in Germany is the gigantic institution it has trillions of dollars in derivatives off-balance sheet derivative if that goes you look out the window yeah I'm ganic storm coming hmm well let's shift our focus over to China we know China's accumulating gold on and off record and you know I'm wondering do you feel that China is positioned stronger to absorb a massive shock to the fiat currency system than say the US and the eurozone considering its gold that it's importing well it does have a lot of gold and it's interesting if you go to China and you walk down the street you'll see a lot of gold shops where people can go in and buy and sell gold if they want to this is a phenomenon did not exist 15 years ago it's only been in the last three years it just has happened and so the Chinese public has been buying a lot of gold you can buy Chinese gold coins pretty easily not pretty very three in China and a lot of people have been buying up so the Chinese public is positioned stronger than it ever has been a saw a lot ever but in the past several decades as far as precious and those are concerned I don't know if the Chinese government owns those not it's with the man himself Jim Rogers thanks for joining me I'm delighted to be Jim today on Zero Hedge we saw CNN's greed and fear index hitting highs that we haven't seen since 2014 so we're seeing this greed aspect where there's a lot of fear and there's a lot of greed and investors are getting greedy in the stock market and the sp500 actually hit new high today what is your thought on this well it's weird the world is flooded with an artificial ocean of liquidity central banks all over the world cannot stop their printing presses in fact they keep giving them up it looks like the Japanese are now going to print even more Europeans are going to print even more this is all absurd it's all that racist it's all that is very very bad they win it ends the question is when it's going in it should've been said by now it hasn't it seems to be getting worse which is good for people on that's good for people on the S&P it's not going to be good and yet hmm well you know sir you mentioned central bank's getting involved here where do you ask you who do you suppose is gonna profit from this current debacle just as global financial mess obviously we got the eurozone with the brexit and you know I hope if I can I'll bring up George Soros who tends to be someone who positions himself in ways for that for big profits in geopolitical events and we recently heard about his short positions in the stock market short bets and Deutsche Bank along with his long position on gold and I want to ask you where do you see the elite money going and how will they profit from this big mess well I repeat that most stocks are down in most stock markets are down around the world most people are not doing well in their best months unless they happen to own a lot of bonds initial unless they happen to own go gold but most dangerous hair down canvas I'm not sure who's making the money maybe the short sellers are making money and in the various markets around the world but unfortunately people are not getting good returns most many hedge funds as you know are closing
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