Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio Review and ETFs To Use

요약 보기

레이 달리오의 올웨더 포트폴리오는 경기 사이클(인플레이션·디플레이션·성장 상승·성장 둔화) 4가지 국면에 모두 버티도록 자산을 분산한 저위험 포트폴리오다. 구성 개요: 주식 30%, 장기국채 40%, 중기국채 15%, 원자재 7.5%, 금 7.5%로 채권 비중이 높다. 원래 달리오 펀드(브리지워터)의 리스크 패리티를 단순화한 버전이다. 성과: 2022년까지 S&P500 60/40 포트폴리오 대비 변동성이 절반 이하이고 낙폭이 훨씬 작았으며, 수익률은 약간 낮고 위험조정수익률은 거의 비슷했다. 진행자 평가: 은퇴 연령에 가깝거나 변동성·낙폭을 정신적으로 견디기 어려운 투자자에게 적합하다고 본다. 원자재와 금 비중은 장기 총수익을 끌어내릴 수 있어 진행자 본인은 직접 채택하지 않을 것이라고 말했다. 다만 원자재 비중은 2021~2022년에 도움이 되었다고 인정했다. 시장 전망: 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없다. 달리오 본인도 미래 예측이 불가능하다고 인정하며, 시장 타이밍은 어리석은 시도라고 말한다. 실행 방법: 저비용 ETF로 VTI 30%, VGLT 40%, SCHR 15%, GLDM 7.5%, BCI 7.5%를 담는 방법을 제시한다. 장기 보유형(set and forget) 포트폴리오로 소개된다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. the all-weather portfolio is a well-diversified low-risk portfolio from Ray dalio designed to weather any environment here we'll look at the all-weather portfolio's components historical performance and stick around till the end when we'll talk about how to build this portfolio with low-cost ETFs first we'll take a brief look at what this portfolio is comprised of and why the all-weather portfolio isn't available to the masses portfolio modeled somewhat after the risk parity-based all-weather fund from the famous hedge fund Bridgewater Associates the portfolio idea was created by the legendary Ray dalio founder of Bridgewater and was then popularized by Tony Robbins dalio has become almost like a god in the world of finance and investing and rightfully so I would highly recommend his best-selling book principles as well as his more recent book big debt crises his newest book from November 2021 is principles for dealing with the changing World Order why Nations succeed and fail Bridgewater is perhaps most famous for their focus on and Analysis of different economic Cycles in the economic machine they're all weather fund and subsequently the all-weather portfolio is designed to survive all economic environments using different types of assets that perform differently during those different seasons appropriately it is also sometimes referred to as the All Seasons portfolio while Bridgewater is constantly watching the market and the economy dalio himself admits that he can't predict the future thus the need for a portfolio that mitigates the financial impact of unexpected economic events known as Black Swan events the all-weather portfolio becomes especially attractive during periods of Market turmoil particularly for investors who have a low risk tolerance and or are primarily concerned with capital preservation it has long been known the portfolio diversification mitigates risk and volatility the weather portfolio seemingly maximizes diversification using a variety of asset classes this diversification benefit is born of the inherent uncorrelation of these assets for example when stocks go down bonds tend to go up this conveniently obviates the need for for any attempt at or anxiety over Market timing or guesswork dalio actually explicitly maintains that attempting to time the market is a Fool's errand note that the all-weather portfolio as it is prescribed is not based on true risk parity of the assets but it is pretty close it is simply the product of an interview between Tony Robbins and Ray dalio in which dalio suggests that these weightings without leverage would be suitable and easy to manage for the average investor dalio even suggested that these weightings would not be exact or perfect In fairness the real all-weather fund at Bridgewater after which this portfolio is modeled seems to be based on risk parity of the four economic Seasons we'll cover in a second as the name suggests the all-weather portfolio is designed to be able to weather any storms it uses asset class diversification based on seasonality in the interest of limiting volatility and drawdowns the Holdings and allocations thereof correspond to dalio's views on economic Seasons dalio's strategy and expertise are so pervasive that the phrase all weather is now used to describe other portfolios that behave like his in surviving any economic climate such as with the phrase investing in an all-weather portfolio dalio proposes that the following four things affect asset value inflation deflation Rising economic growth and declining economic growth based on these dalio expects we can see four seasons of the economy higher than expected inflation lower than expected inflation higher than expected economic growth and lower than expected economic growth dalio chose asset classes that performed well in each of these different seasons with the goal being diversification that allows for consistent growth and small drawdowns to minimize volatility the portfolio is mostly bonds and only allocates 30 percent to stocks the all-weather portfolio asset allocation looks like this 30 U.S stocks 40 long-term treasury bonds 15 intermediate term treasury bonds 7.5 percent Commodities and 7.5 percent gold with live fun data for Commodities only going back to 2003.

02. here's the all-weather portfolio versus a traditional 60 40 portfolio in the S P 500 through 2022 as we'd expect the all-weather portfolio has had less than half the volatility and consequently a much higher risk-adjusted return and significantly smaller drawdowns versus the s p 500. this shows the all-weather portfolio doing precisely what it's intended to do whether any storm personally I probably wouldn't adopt the all-weather portfolio unless I were near or at retirement age or if for some reason I absolutely couldn't mentally and emotionally endure volatility and drawdowns which is a very real case for some the gold Commodities and heavy Bond allocation would likely just drag down long-term Total return since it only has 30 percent allocated to stocks we can see the all-weather portfolio had a slightly lower return with a nearly identical risk adjusted return compared to a 60 40 portfolio for this period I'm also usually not even a fan of gold or Commodities period they have no place in my portfolio at this time that said this would be a good set and forget portfolio making it attractive for investors who want to be completely hands off and it is probably my favorite of the volatility minimizing any economic climate portfolios like the permanent portfolio Golden Butterfly and Ivy portfolio moreover the best strategy is the one you can stick with and mitigating volatility year to year makes that much easier there's also no denying the allocation to Broad Commodities helped immensely in 2021 and 2022 so my foot has been in my mouth recently with that since I'm quick to hate on Commodities now let's talk about how to build the all-weather portfolio with low-cost ETFs that looks like this 30 vti 40 vglt 15 schr 7.5 gldm and 7.5 percent BCI I'll include a link to invest in this portfolio in the description what do you think of the all-weather portfolio let me know in the comments thanks for watching