Fed's Powell 'landed the plane' but economy shouldn't have needed saving, says Jeremy Siegel

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시겔 교수는 파월 연준의 연착륙 성과는 인정하지만, 2021~2022년 제로금리 유지와 MBS 매입으로 과도한 인플레이션을 초래했다며 비판을 유지한다. 실업·성장은 견고하며 GDP는 2%대 초중반으로 전망한다. 분기 실적은 기대치가 하향 조정된 상태에서 4~5% 성장이 예상되고, 기업들은 통상 소폭 상회하는 패턴을 보인다. AI는 향후 10년간 생산성을 1% 이상 높여 주식에 장기적으로 긍정적이라고 본다.

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01. listening to everything that you've said Professor surprises me at how you continue to be so negative about the job that fed chare pal has done you did a discussion with the New York bed President John Williams and I know you know where I'm going cuz I just saw the look at your face I saw the look on your face this was at the economic Club of New York where you said you said quote giving pal a Nobel Prize would be like giving the Nobel Prize to a drunk driver that ran over a pedestrian but got him to the hospital in time to save his life how can you say that after you suggest the economy is so strong the market is ripping and from the lows and we don't need any rate Cuts but yet the FED share has done a terrible job how I I stand by that quote Scott remember 2021 and 2022 we had an incredible boom housing market stock market crazy speculation spacks nfts and everything uh at the same time the Fed was buying mortgage back Securities keeping interest rates at zero telling Banks and everyone else we not letting those rates rise that's the fault yeah I think they landed on their feet but we shouldn't have been in the situation that we were in with inflation that was actually over 10% properly measured and still went up over these four years uh you know High higher than many people's wages and the source of a lot of people's dissatisfaction with the economy so yes he landed on his feet luckily at the end but he didn't have to do he we shouldn't have had to go through what we went through that is what I meant beginning okay ending I feel like you lay all the blame though at at the FED chair's feet he's not the one who came up with the inflation reduction act he is not the one who passed all the other stimulus and maybe we did that in a level of excess that caused more of the inflation than the FED waiting too long to start raising interest rates Scott he did not have to give the presidents all the money that they wanted uh to spend $9 trillion on you know four separate programs two under Trump two under Biden you know nine times the stimulus we had in a much worse financial crisis in 2007 and8 he just printed the money and handed to them dool policy no going into the bond market he did not have to do that if he did not have to do that we would have raised interest rates in 2021 we would not have had the inflation that we had over the last four years many people would look at the scenario now and say you know what it was a very difficult job that he had he had to raise interest rates in such a rapid uh Pace the fastest in 40 years the inflation was n inflation was 9% and look where they've gotten it they've managed to as in your words land the plane and we have a stock market that hits record highs right but they you know they they landed the plane but it doesn't mean that we can forgive him for what happened over four years with a cumulative inflation of 20% he land he's Landing the plane on a soft landing and I give him credit for that but I certainly am still extremely critical of the FED in the first two years following the pandemic let's look back at the market uh which we said you know obviously it's had a bit of a turbulent week and now we're on the cusp of earnings which are going to have a large decision in where this thing goes from here what are you expecting I mean expectations are down from where they were we're still looking for 4 to 5% growth in the quarter but what are your own expectations I I think that those are right I mean what normally happens when you look out on uh expectation is they come down during the year and then they go below so that firms Surprise by a penny or two pennies or 5 cents on the upside it's called the hook so you see them start of going down over time and then about a week two weeks before the announcements they hit their low and then we beat by two or 3% and that's pretty good uh in terms of looking at at the year-over-year it looks like GDP is in the low twos uh you know the FED thinks 2.1 for the for the whole year I actually think it might be even higher than that um so and you know in the background you know Scott we we do have ai um that I think is really over the next 10 years going to raise productivity by 1% or more in the economy and that's a very positive long-term uh outlook for equities and you know some people