저자: Stokkie/TheStockGuy · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 베리의 2023년 매도 권고는 결과적으로 틀렸고, 현 시장은 버블이지만 닷컴버블과 달리 실적이 있는 기업들이라 단기 붕괴 가능성은 낮다고 주장. 주택시장은 고정금리 대출이 많아 2008식 붕괴 없음. 채권시장은 매력이 없고 TINA로 주식 투자가 강요되며, 연금 등 정기 매수 자금이 계속 유입된다고 봄. 엔비디아·마이크론이 실적 우위를 가진다고 평가. 조정(25%)은 매수 기회로 보며 분할매수를 권함. 달러는 약세 진단.
다듬은 글
And I don't care what Michael Bury said there. Look, Michael Bury is just another player, you know? He used the " canary in the coal mine." He saw what was coming in 2008. He saw that the situation was unstable , made a bet—and it worked out wonderfully for him. But he also got confirmation bias from it .
He also thinks that... maybe he doesn't think so. I don't think I have any problems with Michael Bury. I think it's other people overestimating him because he did well then , but just because someone did it once doesn't mean they can do it again and again. So I look at Michael Bury and his words, I use it as information, but I don't take it as, "Oh my God, Michael." I still have this hanging from 2023.
On January 1, 2023, he said: " Sell." This was the very bottom before the S&P 500 emerged from the bear market and rose 132% in 3 years. Even if the market had fallen to 2008 levels by 30, 40, or 50%, it would still be higher than when he advised selling. This doesn't mean that Michael Bury isn't a smart guy.
That doesn't mean...But people are picking on the fact that Michael Bury said that, so he was just in a hurry. He is not wrong. He was just in a hurry. I mean, he's been predicting a market crash every year for the last 10 years. Do you understand what I mean? I say he looks at data the same way he did 20 years ago, but it's a different market.
I don't reject what he says. He is a very intellectual person. within 2 months. You shouldn't ignore his point of view. But my husband also shorts semiconductors and puts on yoga pants. Nvidia is about to become the first $6 trillion company, and Lulu just hit a 10- year low. So , again, you might say, “Well, you just don’t see it, Stokkie.
You don't see it. "He was just in a hurry." My husband just sold Lulu at a 5-year, 10- year low, for a [ __ ] loss. I trade every day. I make mistakes. I have swing trades and long-term investments. I recorded the losses. It's not that anyone is good or bad, it's that everyone is just guessing. He guesses too.
But it is things beyond our control that drive the market. The market is not going to collapse now. The market won't collapse unless some crazy epidemic starts, or a solar flare happens, or a nuclear bomb explodes somewhere , otherwise it won't collapse. Every scumbag who compares this to the dot-com bubble of 2001 is a fool.
Are we in a bubble? Yes, but it's not like the dot-com bubble, because back then it was a bunch of fictitious companies with no profit that everyone was rushing into . Many of these companies have real income. Now you might say, " Yes, but this income is only for the future, but it's still reflected in their statements." MU now generates more revenue and more profit than Apple.
You can't tell me that Micron, Sandisk, and Nvidia are the same as pets.com and Netscape. You can't . You are drawing a conclusion that makes no sense. Does this mean we are not in a bubble? No, but you can't compare it. We do n't have a housing crisis like in 2008. Sorry, guys. The housing market will not collapse.
You won't get cheaper housing, meaning there won't be a crash like in 2008, because no one has excessive debt on their home. No one is "underwater." This isn't a crowd of people who make $30,000 and have a variable rate mortgage on a $400,000 house they could never afford. 60% of homes in America have a fixed interest rate below 4%.
80% have a rate below 6%, and the equity in these homes has increased by 30-40% since then. So even if there is a 20-28% drop, like in 2008, their capital will still be higher than when they bought it, and they are sitting on "golden shackles" that pay for themselves. So, there will be no housing market collapse.
So what could cause a crash? Again, the stock market is not the economy. Everyone who doesn't understand the stock market thinks, "Well, the economy is n't doing too well." People are having a hard time, so the market just has to ... The market is not the economy. The market is a commodity. And as long as people have money to invest in the market, the market will continue to grow.
But so many people in America are barely making ends meet . They have nothing to do with the stock market. The richest ten percent of people have assets in the stock market, and their returns are outpacing inflation. And they can continue to do so . And all other buyers use a dollar-cost averaging strategy through their retirement accounts.
$5 billion a day through pension funds, $5 billion through CTAs, $5 through pension plans. So until the top 10% of the rich and investors whose money flows here have a reason to sell stocks, the market won't collapse. Unless some major disaster happens. The dollar is being mercilessly beaten right now.
There is no savings account that will give you a return; Treasury bonds pay, but not enough. Savings accounts don't yield anything. You can't keep money in cash because you just lose it. You can't keep them in bonds. The bond market is dead. The crypt is some kind of crap. There's nowhere to put the money.
You are forced to invest them in the market. It's called TINA. There is no other alternative. So until a better alternative appears or these people start losing their jobs en masse . Right now, no one is being hired and no one is being fired. So what will be the catalyst? What will be the catalyst? Well, people will realize that this is all one big scam.
Do you think the average person saving for retirement is keeping track of this and doesn't care? No. There will be no collapse. At least in the short term. A healthy correction is possible. There may be a "bear" market. This won't happen because 90% of the people whose opinions you hear about the market only started paying attention to it after COVID.
Their timelines are just crazy. We have 5.5% on 10-year Treasury bonds. This is madness. Sir, these are still historically low interest rates. But your experience is limited to the time when the stakes were zero. So you know, when the first three years of your experience the rates were 2-3%, and now they've doubled—that seems like a very high rate.
Don't get me wrong. Our situation is unstable . If the 10-year bond yield hits 6%, I'll start to worry. But everyone just wants to blow it up into something bigger than it really is. Just give us this market crash already. I want a market crash. Listen, everyone who is under 50 or 45 and who is saying, “Oh my god, I’m so worried about the market crash.
What should I do with my shares? Please sell them immediately. Okay, just sell them now. Because you, You want a market correction. You shouldn't be afraid of a 25% market drop. You have to beg for it. If it happens not because of a major recession or depression, but simply because of a market correction, you should be begging for it.
Because that's how fortunes are built. Buying on a decline. By trying to sell before the drop, you will sell , and it will continue to rise. Then you buy again more expensively; then he will fall; then you will sell in panic; then it will grow back, and you will do it over and over again, paying taxes each time, and in 25 years you will hate yourself terribly .
Don't sell your property, okay? Just keep using cost averaging . Traders love a bull market, and investors love a bear market . You get discounts. I'm so glad I streamed, we were all here, and that we had a fall in 2018. A 25% drop between October 1 and Christmas 2018 . Oh, how I was stingy during the recession.
Less than 2 years later — COVID. Wow, we got this fall. 2022, bear market. Father. 2024, carry trade. Father. Liberation Day. Father. Do you think any of us regret or are upset that these falls happened? Do you think any of those who bought back then are upset that these falls happened? No. Stop being afraid.
This is not your money. This is the money of your future self. And your future self is either very proud of you right now, or wants to go back in time to run you over, break your fingers, or throw away your computer. So I want you to think about your future self. Because I'll tell you right now: there are people who watch my streams who are in their 50s or 60s, and they really regret listening to the noise back then .
And then it was harder . People did better back then. Many older people are in a better position now because they didn't have the opportunity to trade the way we do now. Because I'll tell you right now: I remember when I made my first trades or investments, it cost eight bucks each time. You couldn't buy for $50 or $100 to day trade with an eight-buck commission.
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